Dosh Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Oh jeez, NAM what are you doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 A model? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/RSMEAST_0z/rsmloop.html the ARW is a silly model that uses very very outdated ETA parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 00z NAM doesn't even bomb out the low. By then it's too late. 4-6" verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 the ARW is a silly model that uses very very outdated ETA parameters. True Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Big improvements on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 00z NAM doesn't even bomb out the low. 4-6" verbatim Yes it does, just does it 800 miles offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 00z NAM doesn't even bomb out the low. 4-6" verbatim Check your bl it's very warm for NYC and would be rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Tom, there is snow on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The 00Z NAM looks insecure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Check your bl it's very warm for NYC and would be rain Ouch, didn't check that. Still some snow in there though. Yes it does, just does it 800 miles offshore Check my edit. "By then it's too late" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The 00Z NAM looks insecure. Best way to put it. Amplifies the northern shortwave, bombs out the southern low. Really confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Check your bl it's very warm for NYC and would be rain And light rain at that. .10 .25 contour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The NAM looked fine through 60 hours then something just does not look right after that, it should have phased the systems and bombed them at 66-72 but did not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChineseFood4Snow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 the ARW is a silly model that uses very very outdated ETA parameters. Thank you... I knew it was a model, just wondering why it would have such a ridiculous solution. Hadn't heard that one mentioned before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Tom, there is snow on this run. No their isn't. Your bl is to warm throughout. It finally cools after hr 72 but the precip is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 NAM after 48 hrs is useless, but the trend is towards phasing. BTW this NAM has only slightly above .10 melted, this will not verify it will be more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The NAM looked fine through 60 hours then something just does not look right after that, it should have phased the systems and bombed them at 66-72 but did not. Exactly. It's not sure what it's doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'm surprised all of you optimists are belittling for what the Nam shows rather than the huge changes it made from previous runs. Usually huge shifts like that don't just stop after one run, but I need to see if the gfs does the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Tom, there is snow on this run. yes for nw areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 NAM after 48 hrs is useless, but the trend is towards phasing. BTW this NAM has only slightly above .10 melted, this will not verify it will be more. Bingo. Nam is pointless and is long range after 48 hours. It trended big time towards a phased solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'm surprised all of you optimists are belittling for what the Nam shows rather than the huge changes it made from previous runs. Usually huge shifts like that don't just stop after one run, but I need to see if the gfs does the same. It messed up on this run. It didn't phase the S/W and it was suppose to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Thank you... I knew it was a model, just wondering why it would have such a ridiculous solution. Hadn't heard that one mentioned before. It's the control run on the SREF's from what I heard. Still not a good model. Would loves it's outcome though. 3" of precip for LI! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'm surprised all of you optimists are belittling for what the Nam shows rather than the huge changes it made from previous runs. Usually huge shifts like that don't just stop after one run, but I need to see if the gfs does the same. My hunch is the GFS is going to mainly miss wide right, not sure that will be the end result but I'm not convinced its going to make any sort of big shift west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Nam does look weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 This is why you don't look at the NAM past 36-48 hours. 18z NAM hr 660z NAM hr 60 -- Suddenly, a wild shortwave appears over Southern VirginiaOnly thing to take from this run is that it trended towards the globals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 My hunch is the GFS is going to mainly miss wide right, not sure that will be the end result but I'm not convinced its going to make any sort of big shift west. Unfortunately I think that will happen too. I'm not convinced but I am interested to see what it shows. The Nam does look a bit odd but after 48 hrs it can show crazy solutions. I thought it was going to phase as well. There's a lot of energy in the streams so I'm not surprised the Euro showed those amounts as a result of a phased solution, but I don't think it will phase in time for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The changes at H5 were drastic and trending more favorable. All we can take from the nam at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Basically than Nam took a step in the right direction, that's all we could ask for right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I believe the GFS will show more phasing, but it will be shy of the ECMWF, by tomorrows 12Z or 00Z run we should see thefull phase up. As for NYC's snow that is a bit more problematic until later Friday, by then the cold air should come back in, It could either be rain and or snow during the day Friday, depending on storm track and intensity and when the 850 low over the SE takes over from the Great lakes 850 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The changes at H5 were drastic and trending more favorable. All we can take from the nam at this point. I just hope the GFS doesn't lose it tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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