tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The difference I noticed between the 12z GFS and 18z GFS is the 850's are cooler on the 18z GFS, would expect that with a more SE LP. But surface temps are also a lot warmer on the 18z GFS. KISP goes to 45 degrees at 2m, which makes no sense. Where is it getting all that low level warmth? Certainly not the ocean which is in the upper 30's, low 40's. 10m winds are east at the onset of precip. I don't recall any snowstorms with winds starting out of the east, though it is forecast to change to north. If you look at the meteogram, before that the winds are southeast, which causes the warmth. Once the winds switch to east and then northeast the temp drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Anyone post the euro control run? It's insane for our area. I did on facebook. Information wants to be free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Anyone post the euro control run? It's insane for our area. Would rival anything you`ve ever seen . Stalls it off Montauk , Too wound up , Boston QPF 4 In .... Nice to look at though . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Please someone explain how the EURO control run is different then the regular run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 . Someone here did say it, on one of the previous two pages, unless they've deleted their post by now. Ji? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Please someone explain how the EURO control run is different then the regular run? From their website "The ECMWF weather prediction model is run 51 times from slightly different initial conditions. One forecast, called the EPS control forecast, is run from the operational ECMWF analysis. 50 additional integrations, the perturbed members, are made from slightly different initial conditions which are designed to represent the uncertainties inherent in the operational analysis. The initial perturbations are generated using the singular vector technique." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hey earthlight, i know you mentioned about not being real optimistic about this friday threat, but do you think the 18z gfs just had a brain fart, or has it started the beginning of an inevitable trend here, given the unfavorable synoptic pattern. And it's not just the gfs, it's also the canadian, as well as the nam (yea, i know the nam is crap that far out but...). The ECMWF has f-ed up more than once this year so far, showing a big storm threat only to loose it. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hey earthlight, i know you mentioned about not being real optimistic about this friday threat, but do you think the 18z gfs just had a brain fart, or has it started the beginning of an inevitable trend here, given the unfavorable synoptic pattern. And it's not just the gfs, it's also the canadian, as well as the nam (yea, i know the nam is crap that far out but...). The ECMWF has f-ed up more than once this year so far, showing a big storm threat only to loose it. Thoughts? The 18z Nogaps is all snow. Relax. The Euro, which has led the charge here, does have some support. And, at this range, the Nogaps is about as useful as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hey earthlight, i know you mentioned about not being real optimistic about this friday threat, but do you think the 18z gfs just had a brain fart, or has it started the beginning of an inevitable trend here, given the unfavorable synoptic pattern. And it's not just the gfs, it's also the canadian, as well as the nam (yea, i know the nam is crap that far out but...). The ECMWF has f-ed up more than once this year so far, showing a big storm threat only to loose it. Thoughts? Quit your worrying, the Euro has consistently shown over 1" of QPF for your area on the last 6 or 7 runs. This threat is the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hey earthlight, i know you mentioned about not being real optimistic about this friday threat, but do you think the 18z gfs just had a brain fart, or has it started the beginning of an inevitable trend here, given the unfavorable synoptic pattern. And it's not just the gfs, it's also the canadian, as well as the nam (yea, i know the nam is crap that far out but...). The ECMWF has f-ed up more than once this year so far, showing a big storm threat only to loose it. Thoughts? To be honest with you, it's hard to say. There is always the argument that the Euro has the most advanced initialization scheme, so it should be the most trustworthy model in that regard. That being said, it has been on and off at best over the last month or two. I would be a lot less confident if it's ensembles didn't amp up as well at 12z. I think we'll know more by 00z tonight and especially by 12z tomorrow. Getting all the data and pieces of energy sampled well is incredibly important. All of that said, taking a step back, I can't say that the pattern favors a big bomb solution back to NYC or NJ. It's just barely too progressive I think..and the lack of blocking is hurting us as is the ridge axis being a big farther east than we would hope. This storm certainly favors New England if the phase works out. But I could see a 4-8" type deal here if it all works out perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I think everybody here loves being taken for a ride as I completely disagree with what the Euro shows and am on board with what the 18z gfs depicts. The pattern is far too progressive, the streams will phase too late for us and we'll get light precip, probably rain at best while parts of NE do quite well, but probably not as amazing as the Euro shows for places like Boston. Let's just be real here. Unless I see this within 24-36 hrs, then forget it. The pattern this winter has been suppressed and progressive and that's not changing sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 ARW smokes NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 ARW smokes NYC It is a heavy hitter from NYC to BOS, the CCB absolutely crushes our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 does anyone have any panels from the arw? looking for some eye candy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 does anyone have any panels from the arw? looking for some eye candy http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/RSMEAST_0z/rsmloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
threeyoda Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Just to let you guys know: a Tsunami Warning has been issued for South Pacific islands after an 8.0 earthquake hit near the Santa Cruz Islands http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/tsunami-warning-issued-south-pacific-islands-18415084 They've also been hit by a 5.7, 6.4, and 6.6 in the last 10 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/RSMEAST_0z/rsmloop.html Talk about marginal, wouldn't a good chunk of that be rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 That's a blizzard for our area lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Talk about marginal, wouldn't a good chunk of that be rain? Not even close. Massive snow bomb, the likes of which we have never seen. 35-40" of snow. All out blizzard. Not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Not even close. Massive snow bomb, the likes of which we have never seen. 35-40" of snow. All out blizzard. Not happening. Sorry but have to say.. I seen it before..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 . i was in boston then, the ratios must have been great because it even started as rain...hardest prolonged snow i have ever seen,i just figured ratios might not be great due to marginaltemps. It was actually quite a bit less (2.06"). I suspect that the intense convection, including thundersnow, contributed to the higher ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Not even close. Massive snow bomb, the likes of which we have never seen. 35-40" of snow. All out blizzard. Not happening. The liquid equivalent isn't really too far off from the Euro so I guess its not that crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hmm looks like the Nam will be a lot more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Huge improvement over 18z with the nam. Much more amplification in the shortwave, lots more precip over the mid-atlantic at 54h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 ARW is 17-20" of snow for here verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The NAM seems to be picking up on some CAD with that high to the north. The 850mb 0C isotherm really has a nice kink to the south into areas south of Delaware at 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The Nam is a bit out of its range still but that's a huge change from 18z, I wonder if the gfs will follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 A lot sharper with the northern stream, more consolidated. Southern stream looks more presentable. Just gonna phase too late. Most moisture is strictly northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChineseFood4Snow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 ARW is 17-20" of snow for here verbatim. Forgive my ignorance, but what is ARW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Forgive my ignorance, but what is ARW? A model? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/RSMEAST_0z/rsmloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.