WeatherX Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hr 84 cuts off 500mb over the BM on the ensembles. Thanks Will, that certainly doesn't suck lol. You must be excited? Nice to see something substantial coming together for many of us starving weenies..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Thanks Will, that certainly doesn't suck lol. You must be excited? Nice to see something substantial coming together for many of us starving weenies..... Yes, its a very nice ensemble run...still cautious though as this setup is quite unconventional. The cutoff location is about perfect for Boston...but would do pretty well in NYC too...esp LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Why is the HPC using only the GGEM and UMKET as the preference models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yes, its a very nice ensemble run...still cautious though as this setup is quite unconventional. The cutoff location is about perfect for Boston...but would do pretty well in NYC too...esp LI. Well if it plays out at all like the Euro is showing, there will be many satisfied folks in the Boston area who've been shutout for quite sometime. Lot's of fun and drama coming the next 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Well if it plays out at all like the Euro is showing, there will be many satisfied folks in the Boston area who've been shutout for quite sometime. Lot's of fun and drama coming the next 96 60-72 hours. Fixed man....we are getting pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Upton is being extremely bearish and is only calling for 2-4" outside of eastern LI and CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Fixed man....we are getting pretty close. Yeah, it's almost there.......hopefully we can lock a solution in by the 0z runs tonight.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 06Z RGEM MSLP valid at 12Z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 000 FLUS41 KOKX 060909 HWOOKX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 409 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013 NYZ078>081-177-179-071100- NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 409 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND FRIDAY AND THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...SNOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN ON FRIDAY BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT. MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 06Z RGEM three hour p-type valid at 12Z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Upton is still worried about mixing issues. I understand on LI but all the way up to Orange county? hmmmmm..... Also no WSW strange to see the lack of continuity with other offices. I think at least for NW of NYC its a safe bet for a watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS is rain to snow. Not showing the euro phase yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Why is the HPC using only the GGEM and UMKET as the preference models? Sound Familiar? There should be a WSW by this afternoon if the 12z Euro holds, honestly Upton should've followed Taunton's lead and isssue a watch, its just a watch afterall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Sound Familiar? There should be a WSW by this afternoon if the 12z Euro holds, honestly Upton should've followed Taunton's lead and isssue a watch, its just a watch afterall. The dynamics are different, but March 2001 has gone through my head with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS is rain to snow. Not showing the euro phase yet Rather ugly, but nice CCB, progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS is rain to snow. Not showing the euro phase yet GFS is still running the STJ shortwave out ahead of the NS s/w.....getting better, but not where it needs to be yet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yea i Think by 12z with the new samples it will catch on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 00Z Wednesday RGEM ensembles valid at 00Z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS is still running the STJ shortwave out ahead of the NS s/w.....getting better, but not where it needs to be yet.... How much of the QPF is frozen for NYC 6z GFS? I'm on mobile. Also, do you know what the 0z Euro control run and JMA showed? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The RGEM ensembles look very tucked in with the Coastal low and warm. Is this an inherent bias with this model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 How much of the QPF is frozen for NYC? Also, do you know what the 0z Euro control run and JMA showed? Thanks. After this turn of events, that's what I want to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The RGEM ensembles look very tucked in with the Coastal low and warm. Is this an inherent bias with this model? I am still working on the biases with regard to the RGEM ensembles. The RGEM is known for being too far west and warm toward the end of its run however. But this is why I brought up March 2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 J.B has 1-2 feet NYC to boston some irrelevent mixing with maybe hurricane force winds he will stick with and ride it out that forecast is he hyping no clue .His accountability is on the line because he's running his own show now and its simple let the markets decide or he loses income that simple with accu it didn't matter but his pocketbook will feel it with hugh busts . Disruptive storm is an understatement if half of his morning read verifies .Lindsay storm potential riding the euro will see peace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 06Z RGEM vorticity valid at 12Z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Upton going 1-3 Thursday night then change to rain. Goes on to say change back to snow Friday evening with blizzard conditions possible eastern zones 2-4/3-6 additional Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I am still working on the biases with regard to the RGEM ensembles. The RGEM is known for being too far west and warm toward the end of its run however. But this is why I brought up March 2001. If that scenario happens again with this upcoming storm coupled with the empty threats so far this winter, I'd forsee a lot of suspensions and a NYC sub-forum permanent boycott of the Euro model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 J.B has 1-2 feet NYC to boston some irrelevent mixing with maybe hurricane force winds he will stick with and ride it out that forecast is he hyping no clue .His accountability is on the line because he's running his own show now and its simple let the markets decide or he loses income that simple with accu it didn't matter but his pocketbook will feel it with hugh busts . Disruptive storm is an understatement if half of his morning read verifies . not in NYC - would rather believe Alan Kasper who says mainly rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 according to Alan Kasper this is a rainstorm except far north and west - no accumulation except far northwest NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Bill Evans on the radio this am. Major storm developing. Snow sleet rain changing to all snow Friday afternoon.. temps start at 40 early Friday and crash into the 20's and teens.. potential big accumulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 according to Alan Kasper this is a rainstorm except far north and west - no accumulation except far northwest NJ Thats more unlikely then JB's 1-2 feet at this point!!! We can easily get an inch or two on the front and back ends all the way to the coast. Way to much hype either way!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.