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Central PA - February 2013


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lol atomix that was a once in a lifetime deal...it was rough but Im over it. Very slippery out tonight...fzdz.

One thing I saw recently and keep forgetting to post...and I bet no one realizes this. You got more snow in 10-11 than 09-10.

 

In 09-10, you got 34.9, below your normal of 36.4. In 10-11, you got 45.6, above normal.

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Hi Guys!

 

I've got an interesting story to share with all of you, one that I think you'll all enjoy.

 

For those of you who do not know, I am an Optometrist by profession. Currently I work in two offices. I have my own private practice in Mechanicsburg which at the moment is my secondary practice, and a second office inside a Pearle Vision store in East York. I've been in the York location for 3 years this month. This afternoon, right after I got back from my lunch break, I got ready to see my next patient of the afternoon. It was a youngish looking man. I picked up his record and invited him into my exam room. As I had him take a seat I glanced down at the demographic info and one thing immediately popped out and interested me. Under "occupation", the man put "Meteorologist". Well, I knew at some point during the exam I was going to start asking him about his work/job. So I made my way through the exam, and when I reached the end I changed the conversation to him and his profession. I asked him if he worked private or public sector. He answered, "private". I then asked, "where do you presently work?". He answered, "I work at at Fox 43. I'm the morning meteorologist!" His name...Jeff Jumper.

 

I had to chuckle to myself because I didn't know who he was. I don't watch much TV in general, and I never watch TV in the morning. The reason I chuckled to myself was becuase in years past I knew all the meteorologists on all the local TV stations...but that was back when I lived in north Jersey, and it was the mets in the NYC market. So, it didn't take me long before we were actively talking about the weather, of course, and I immediately asked Jeff if he had ever hear of our illustrious weather forum. He told me that he had only just gotten his job within the past few months as he had come up from a TV station down in Alabama. He said he did not know about American Weather. So, I quickly plugged our group, telling him about the many pro mets that participate on the boards. I specifically told him about our subforum, and about MAG being our primary pro met that frequently contributes. He sounded very interested in joining our group. I think it's likely that we will be seeing his red tag and name showing up around here in the near future! By the way, he's a 2006 PSU grad, and he's 29.

 

Let's make sure we welcome him after he joins. Be on the lookout for Jeff!

 

Thanks,

 

Stephen

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One thing I saw recently and keep forgetting to post...and I bet no one realizes this. You got more snow in 10-11 than 09-10.

 

In 09-10, you got 34.9, below your normal of 36.4. In 10-11, you got 45.6, above normal.

Jamie thanks for the info! Looking forward to seeing how much snow we pick up in February.

CarlislePaWx nice story!

Nut hope you have fun at the cabin!! Was just up to Haneyville on Sunday....Still a little snow up there.

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Think it's safe punting on any frozen precip for Friday; storm digging way too much S/W for us all.

It obliterates Boston with a blizzard.

I'd be careful to completely punt frozen with this event. For at least some of us in our region to cash in on a meaningful snow event, we need the southern storm to start getting it's act together early enough or else we'll lose the precip when the low winds up enroute to throttling New England. It needs to work some magic timing wise. With the right timing, the transfer to the main coastal storm could hang a decent shield over PA.

My concern for p-type is turning into an intensity issue over an actual thermal issue. I think aloft it will be marginal for most to get snow and cooling, given that this southern stream wave has looked more robust in it's development earlier in the game on the models. If we manage good precip stemming from the rapid development of the coastal, it could snow anywhere in C-PA. However if it's light.. that could introduce just liquid precip especially in the southeast since surface temps look to be generally in the low-mid 30s prior to whatever we get from this.

Will say the new Euro for the first time did deliver some half decent precip to alot of central PA. UNV/MDT/LNS has about a half inch of QPF.. and all these locations look easily cold enough for snow. 850 temps actually get decently cold later in the event.. down to -7 to -8ºC for even LNS. And who would be the C-PA winner this go around? Wsptwx.. he has 0.6". Given the pattern we're presented, this won't be the snow bomb it could potentially be for parts of SNE down here.. but with the right timing, some or perhaps most of our region could cash in on a decent event.

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thats a funny story Stephen, that would be great if he joined our group.

 

I'm not expecting anything, however i'm not going to throw this puppy to the curb yet. It seems like it just wants to snow, like last evening, that light fluffy powder covered everything but the heavily salted roads. I wasn't expecting that.

 

ahhh Feb. 2010,  Fri-Sat 5/6th  18"  then  Tues-Wed 9/10th 22" with high winds and white out conditions.

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Yea dude...my favorite storm since 2003 was the heavy rain to snow event of March 2011. Great great storm.

That was a great storm. 

 

My favorite was 1993. Snow started overnight. My wife and I walked 1 mile to get groceries in the morning.

Blizzard conditions all afternoon with thundersnow for 3 or 4 hours straight.

24 inches in 24 hours and lost power in the afternoon.

My favorite is Jan 3, 1994. That storm hit at rush hour and stopped my favorite city right in it's tracks like it was Levon Kirkland and the city was a 175 pound halfback. 

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thats a funny story Stephen, that would be great if he joined our group.

 

I'm not expecting anything, however i'm not going to throw this puppy to the curb yet. It seems like it just wants to snow, like last evening, that light fluffy powder covered everything but the heavily salted roads. I wasn't expecting that.

 

ahhh Feb. 2010,  Fri-Sat 5/6th 22"  then  Tues-Wed 9/10th 18" with high winds and white out conditions.

I think you have those totals reversed - I think the weekend was the "lesser" amount. I remember went to NYC Saturday morning as it had started to snow and were stuck there overnight. Got the first train back to HBG the next morning and we didn't have as much as we got a few days later. But man what memories. Walking down Front Street without a single thing moving was awesome.

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I think you have those totals reversed - I think the weekend was the "lesser" amount. I remember went to NYC Saturday morning as it had started to snow and were stuck there overnight. Got the first train back to HBG the next morning and we didn't have as much as we got a few days later. But man what memories. Walking down Front Street without a single thing moving was awesome.

i corrected it as you may be right, but the way i put was how it was in my journel, which i may have entered it wrong back then too?!?

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Opening maps for Fridays possible storm via CTP:

 

post-1507-0-58013100-1360156691_thumb.pn

post-1507-0-19366400-1360156702_thumb.pn

 

As mentioned in their morning disco, they generally followed HPC QPF maps for this map.. which of course was a compromise of model solutions with this. Actually, if one looks at their model diagnostic discussion for the 0z suite last night.. they went with a non-euro compromise...however often that happens. The Euro being the furthest southwest with this developing storm is why it was able to get alot of PA involved in pretty big snows vs the flatter more progressive models which would deal more like what CTP's map illustrates. How/when/where this system phases (assuming it does so) will ultimately dictate whether we get decent precip in C-PA or if we get slotted.. which is a very real possibilty in this setup. For us I'd keep expectations low, cuz this isn't your classic setup to get a big snow event via a coastal storm. However, it can still happen if the needle is threaded. 

 

This is still a situation where the outcome could be highly changable. The next couple model cycles are going to be really interesting to watch. Models have come to a general consensus on the robust coastal, but their detail differences have big implications impact wise. Confidence should be pretty decent on a sizeable storm for SNE, and perhaps down to NYC.. but the difference between the Euro and most of the other major guidance is that the Euro suggests something that might cross the ridiculous threshold and everything else is more of a typical bigger winter storm that New England will see here and there over the course of a normal winter. 

 

I guess there's the RPM model too.. I had to share this, caught this over on the NYC thread:

 

post-1507-0-84749100-1360158228_thumb.jp

 

The snow totals are crazy in itself, but this was on a news station! I could only imagine the average person waking up and and turning this on. 

 

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Jamie thanks for the info! Looking forward to seeing how much snow we pick up in February.

CarlislePaWx nice story!

Nut hope you have fun at the cabin!! Was just up to Haneyville on Sunday....Still a little snow up there.

Haneyville is a beatiful area.  I hope to ride down that way this weekend if Mo nature "lets" us... 

Trends are looking good right now and it will only take another tick or 2 in the right direction for Cent. Pa to get into some appreciable totals.

 

Nut

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I think you have those totals reversed - I think the weekend was the "lesser" amount. I remember went to NYC Saturday morning as it had started to snow and were stuck there overnight. Got the first train back to HBG the next morning and we didn't have as much as we got a few days later. But man what memories. Walking down Front

Street without a single thing moving was awesome.

I wrote down 24" on the 6th and 21" on the 10th for here. We definitely got more on Fri/Sat.

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Jamie thanks for the info! Looking forward to seeing how much snow we pick up in February.

CarlislePaWx nice story!

Nut hope you have fun at the cabin!! Was just up to Haneyville on Sunday....Still a little snow up there.

I am too. The Friday storm has a bit of interest to me, but not high expectations at all. I am, however, encouraged by what I am seeing for the rest of the month. 

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I wrote down 24" on the 6th and 21" on the 10th for here. We definitely got more on Fri/Sat.

ah, so my info originaly recorded was correct? i've been racking my brain looking at my journel, i thought maybe because they happened so close together, i recorded both events at the same time, but i didn't, the 2 entries were in different color ink! The storm on the 9/10th had the high winds, not so much on the 5/6th

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