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Central PA - February 2013

NortheastPAWx

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north pgh

north pgh

Posted
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I made that a few years ago...if you want to use it help yourself :)

Thanks 2001kx. I remember a bunch of us borrowed that from you for the Pittsburgh forum so I do not want to take credit for it.

For any newcomers or for those who do not know the story we had not had a big storm (over 6 inches) in Pittsburgh and North Central Pa. for about 6 years. Every storm in 2010 was going south and east of us. All of us snow storm lovers were not happy.

After many of us put this as our signature for good luck we finally got the back to back storms in Feb 2010 of 22 inches and 8 inches in the same week.

Let's see if it works again. 

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JamieOber

JamieOber

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Thanks 2001kx. I remember a bunch of us borrowed that from you for the Pittsburgh forum so I do not want to take credit for it.

For any newcomers or for those who do not know the story we had not had a big storm (over 6 inches) in Pittsburgh and North Central Pa. for about 6 years. Every storm in 2010 was going south and east of us. All of us snow storm lovers were not happy.

After many of us put this as our signature for good luck we finally got the back to back storms in Feb 2010 of 22 inches and 8 inches in the same week.

Let's see if it works again. 

Feb 28-March 1 2005, I was in Pittsburgh for the seven inch storm. It was kinda sloppy. The people I was visiting live in Munhall and that huge hill was a b**ch. 

 

Pittsburgh's had quite a nice run for snow seasons the last six years, including this one. 

 

Edit: 

 

Figure I'd add what they've got to make Wmsptwx feel even more screwed over - 

 

Normal: 41.9

 

2007-2008: 41.2

2008-2009: 41.0

2009- 2010: 77.4

2010-2011: 56.7 (back to back top 20 years!)

2011-2012: 36.9 (damn lucky, not even close to their worst, unlike us)

2012-2013 so far: 32.1 (unless the rest of the winter really poos the bed, they look to be normal or even above)

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JamieOber

JamieOber

Posted
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One of the things that has rung true about this month was the talk on how the models are not going to be all that great in this pattern. This New England monster is proof of that. I just saw a met post that if someone told him earlier this week that there would be a beast of a storm, he'd laugh at them because the pattern doesn't really scream historic storm. That's why I am not too overenthused over the 12Z Euro's decent signal for a VDay storm. 

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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One of the things that has rung true about this month was the talk on how the models are not going to be all that great in this pattern. This New England monster is proof of that. I just saw a met post that if someone told him earlier this week that there would be a beast of a storm, he'd laugh at them because the pattern doesn't really scream historic storm. That's why I am not too overenthused over the 12Z Euro's decent signal for a VDay storm. 

 

This is just another example of not needing a -NAO to get a major storm, although this is a situation that a lack of one helps to hurt our chances of seeing much. With that said, I am surprised at some of the absolutely prolific runs that have came out with this storm. That 12z NAM run was insane, as are the 15z SREFs. We continue to be in a tough spot. The northern branch low just doesn't look to start phasiing in early enough, instead getting more into the lower lakes as it transfers. That does two things.. 1. Provide drama in terms of p-type since we'll be dealing with a weak warm push (that may or may not be counteracted by the rapidly deepening coastal low)  and 2. The positioning suggests that the big precip shield primarily stays in New York state and extreme northern Penn.

 

On that note of p-type, models have been really warm suggesting all rain with the bulk of the precip we do get, especially the NAM and GGEM. The SREFs also have high rain probs for the southern 2/3s of PA. I tend to think thats a bit too warm, and the northern half of PA with the nose sticking down further into the central counties has more flakes/mixed than anything else. Just think that the deepening coastal low offsets WAA from the southwest better than that. What i mentioned earlier about precip rates still goes as well, especially in the southeast. A lighter event down there probably spells rain. 

 

As much as it's going to suck watching folks to the northeast get slammed I think we will have more opportunities this month.. and with a better setup. I had been looking more at next week for a storm that could give us a bigger event. I would keep an eye on that V-day timeframe, I like the look with the frontal boundary pressing thru early next week and hanging around not too far away for another southern wave to run up it late week. 12z GFS and Euro had it today, with the Euro low on the coast and the GFS a failed truncated miller B attempt. Not really concerned about details at that range, just the bigger picture that suggests something could be there.  

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EasternUSWX

EasternUSWX

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Hey guys, just popping in to see if anyone wants to take a trip up to western CT with me? We will spilt hotel and driving cost. Will make for heck of a time. Would head up very early Friday 1-2am and get there around 8am when it is about to start. Come home sometime on Sunday if we are not buried in. lol. 

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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Hey guys, just popping in to see if anyone wants to take a trip up to western CT with me? We will spilt hotel and driving cost. Will make for heck of a time. Would head up very early Friday 1-2am and get there around 8am when it is about to start. Come home sometime on Sunday if we are not buried in. lol. 

 

If I were snow chasing.. Worcester, MA would be my pick haha. 

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EasternUSWX

EasternUSWX

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I might be in eastern...can I,let u know by noon tmrw?

 

We would have to meet in Easton around 2-3 am. If you are up for it. My mom is coming along too. We are getting a hotel for Friday night and then leaving Saturday around 10am to come back. Up to you. email me at [email protected] since I am getting back off of here. 

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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Nice dude, hope it continues.

 

And I'd like to order the 18Z GFS for Valentines Day, plz.

 

See that one, MAG? That's what I call potential.

 

Yep, theres def some potential the second half of this month. That V-day storm has a much more traditional looking pattern with a nice western ridge. The last few days have really been the first time all winter I've seen the GFS lol-range lobbing storm after storm out of the Gulf. The AO is now forecast to go in the tank with a neutral NAO (for now) and a somewhat positive PNA. Pretty cold and volatile look.

 

18z GFS was a also bit better with getting snow into central PA, as it was a little bit earlier with it's transfer. I def wouldn't sleep on a possible late advisory for snowfall for us. We'll have to see what models do on the next couple runs. I'm just having a hard time buying the notion we have rain or even mixed with that developing coastal. I think it'll work itself out if we can get into some of the better precip.  

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JamieOber

JamieOber

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DT has most of pa along I-80 and north in the 4"-7" range on his first guess.

 

 

http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/1stG.jpg

That's awfully bold for around here.

 

Yep, theres def some potential the second half of this month. That V-day storm has a much more traditional looking pattern with a nice western ridge. The last few days have really been the first time all winter I've seen the GFS lol-range lobbing storm after storm out of the Gulf. The AO is now forecast to go in the tank with a neutral NAO (for now) and a somewhat positive PNA. Pretty cold and volatile look.

 

18z GFS was a also bit better with getting snow into central PA, as it was a little bit earlier with it's transfer. I def wouldn't sleep on a possible late advisory for snowfall for us. We'll have to see what models do on the next couple runs. I'm just having a hard time buying the notion we have rain or even mixed with that developing coastal. I think it'll work itself out if we can get into some of the better precip.  

Hope this stays on the models. But I am reading mets like yourself talking it up too.

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JamieOber

JamieOber

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I'm hoping we end up being in the game at least some but I just can't get too enthused about watching NYC cash in on another storm. Call it what you want, but that's just how I feel right now.

NYC? They are in a precarious spot. The latest GFS has them getting 5-6" and the NAM has them getting less than an inch.

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Wmsptwx

Wmsptwx

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New England but I know what he means. We struggle at getting the home run storm here(North Central Pa), but living here we should know that and take whatever falls. Also, before I get called negative that is not. We get a lot of moderate storms and I am very thankful for that.We clearly just dont specialize in getting huge events...climatologically.

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