superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 How can there be hope when no model is showing anything? Sure there is cold air but no precipitation. Modelology≠Meteorology. Anyways, some seem to be back in panic mode this morning after being happy last night and all we had was the 6z model runs. WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Saved for bump trolling later. Lol few light snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I'm surprised there's not more chatter about the long duration event late this week/weekend west of the mountains. Snow showers look to pile up 2-3 inches in the eastern valley with 4-5 farther north near TRI and on the plateau. Even Nashville gets an inch or two. The mountains should do very well. This has been consistently modeld on the GFS for several days now. About the past 10 runs have shown it without wavering, even trending it a tad wetter. It's no miller A, but quite a few folks would be happy if this pans out as the GFS is showing. It doesn't look as impressive to me for some reason. Sure there will be a few impulses floating around in the flow, coming through TN and the southern apps. I just don't see anything that would actually drop measurable snow (except for the upslope areas of the mountains). Maybe if we can get one to rotate in during the night, then we could see a small accumulation for the valley areas, but I just think it will be hard to score accumulations (and especially keep them) b/c of the time of year without a synoptic snowstorm. In other words, KTRI might see enough qpf for 4-5 inches of snow over 3-4 days, but never have more than a dusting to an inch on the groung. Highs in the mid 30s are fine if you want to see snow this time of year, but not if you want to see and keep accumulations from a series of minor events. We need the heavy stuff. All that said, I would LOVE to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Lol few light snow showers. Saved for bump trolling later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 It doesn't look as impressive to me for some reason. Sure there will be a few impulses floating around in the flow, coming through TN and the southern apps. I just don't see anything that would actually drop measurable snow (except for the upslope areas of the mountains). Maybe if we can get one to rotate in during the night, then we could see a small accumulation for the valley areas, but I just think it will be hard to score accumulations (and especially keep them) b/c of the time of year without a synoptic snowstorm. In other words, KTRI might see enough qpf for 4-5 inches of snow over 3-4 days, but never have more than a dusting to an inch on the groung. Highs in the mid 30s are fine if you want to see snow this time of year, but not if you want to see and keep accumulations from a series of minor events. We need the heavy stuff. All that said, I would LOVE to be wrong. Yeah, I have to say that it looks like the typical NW flow snow showers/flizzards that I used to get back when I lived in the lowlands of WV (near Charleston) for a few winters. Sure, you see snow a lot, but it rarely accumulates and even when it does accumulate to a dusting or maybe on rare occasions a coating, it melts away in 30 minutes after the snow shower as the sun comes back out. Typically, the snow showers dissipate after dark, too, which makes it worse as far as accumulations go. Sometimes, you can get lucky, though, so you never know and, of course, I could be wrong! Any snow is better than no snow, in any case! Of course, things are different in the mountains. These things can work out well for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Modelology≠Meteorology. Anyways, some seem to be back in panic mode this morning after being happy last night and all we had was the 6z model runs. WTF? Ok so then why do you all use the models then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 It doesn't look as impressive to me for some reason. Sure there will be a few impulses floating around in the flow, coming through TN and the southern apps. I just don't see anything that would actually drop measurable snow (except for the upslope areas of the mountains). Maybe if we can get one to rotate in during the night, then we could see a small accumulation for the valley areas, but I just think it will be hard to score accumulations (and especially keep them) b/c of the time of year without a synoptic snowstorm. In other words, KTRI might see enough qpf for 4-5 inches of snow over 3-4 days, but never have more than a dusting to an inch on the groung. Highs in the mid 30s are fine if you want to see snow this time of year, but not if you want to see and keep accumulations from a series of minor events. We need the heavy stuff. All that said, I would LOVE to be wrong. You are probably right and getting much accumulation in the valley is a long shot. But, I guess I've just adjusted my expectations over the past decade or so; the prospect of having periods of snow showers from Thursday evening through Sunday evening is exciting to me. A few weekends ago we had bursts of moderate snow on a Saturday morning and Sunday morning. It didn't pile up, but it was fun to drive around in. I'm mainly encouraged that the GFS has been so consistent with showing this and that it is strung out over 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Ok so then why do you all use the models then? I think the models can be used to show potential. Then you have to use meterology to try to figure out exactly what will happen. I think a lot of times for central NC that is really hard to do, though, unless you have the absolutely perfect setup. But that rarely happens, and even minor changes can mean a forecast can bust either on the low or high side. It seems this winter the models have shown better things in the long range than the meterology showed. Now the meterology looks great for a big winter storm around here within the next couple of weeks. However, if the models aren't going to show anything, then all we have is a great setup but with nothing to show for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I don't know much about the specific players at work in this pattern, but whatever they are, they are EPIC for the Kansas City and Kansas. This is their Snowmegeddon year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 The 12Z GFS and CMC just said this about the weekend storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 It doesn't look as impressive to me for some reason. Sure there will be a few impulses floating around in the flow, coming through TN and the southern apps. I just don't see anything that would actually drop measurable snow (except for the upslope areas of the mountains). Maybe if we can get one to rotate in during the night, then we could see a small accumulation for the valley areas, but I just think it will be hard to score accumulations (and especially keep them) b/c of the time of year without a synoptic snowstorm. In other words, KTRI might see enough qpf for 4-5 inches of snow over 3-4 days, but never have more than a dusting to an inch on the groung. Highs in the mid 30s are fine if you want to see snow this time of year, but not if you want to see and keep accumulations from a series of minor events. We need the heavy stuff. All that said, I would LOVE to be wrong. I agree with this. LR GFS looks pretty much cold and dry with perhaps a few clippers moving through. This is normal in a NW flow pattern. Doesn't favor big systems in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I immediately went to the store after college. Picked up (2) cans of spaghetti meatballs to ride out the storm. Also got a chicken sand-which to eat now with a juice box. Winter Weather Advisory folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I immediately went to the store after college. Picked up (2) cans of spaghetti meatballs to ride out the storm. Also got a chicken sand-which to eat now with a juice box. Winter Weather Advisory folks. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I immediately went to the store after college. Picked up (2) cans of spaghetti meatballs to ride out the storm. Also got a chicken sand-which to eat now with a juice box. Winter Weather Advisory folks. Worse west of you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Safe to say my Spring break next week will be ruined with cold air. Probably will snow since I will be out of school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Stove PiPe thats perfect !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I startled about 10-15 birds when I opened the door outside. Anyone in WNC seeing the same thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I startled about 10-15 birds when I opened the door outside. Anyone in WNC seeing the same thing? I'm not in WNC but I see birds outside imby....LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 What in the world? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Lol over 2 inches of rain here. Just raining forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I would like to thank Wilkes for pissing off people even more than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I would like to thank Wilkes for pissing off people even more than me. He is a mess now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I would like to thank Wilkes for pissing off people even more than me. Don't worry, you still have your days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Took me a bit of doing, but I have re-discovered the power of the "ignore" feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGaWxNerd Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I would like to thank Wilkes for pissing off people even more than me. I think it's his campaign strategy for WOTY. Weenies are cute, he's just annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I startled about 10-15 birds when I opened the door outside. Anyone in WNC seeing the same thing? I just stepped out my back door and saw a big pile of dog ****. Anybody in central NC seeing the same thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Took me a bit of doing, but I have re-discovered the power of the "ignore" feature. Me too. Added about 3-6 people the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGaWxNerd Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I'm dedicating this to Wilkes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I love chef boyardee spaghetti and meatballs. I did not get the jumbo cans I got the normal ones. Used my JustSave card and got them 88cents a piece. Bread going to start flying off the shelves after the 5pm news on a Monday. Not a peep about anything over the weekend for the mountain areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I just stepped out my back door and saw a big pile of dog ****. Anybody in central NC seeing the same thing? I did earlier. It had kind of a negative tilt but it didn't phase me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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