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2013 Mid-Atlantic Severe General Discussion


Kmlwx

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TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 24
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
630 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013

TORNADO WATCH 24 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM EST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MDC003-005-009-013-017-025-027-031-033-037-510-310700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0024.130130T2330Z-130131T0700Z/

MD
.    MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANNE ARUNDEL         BALTIMORE           CALVERT
CARROLL              CHARLES             HARFORD
HOWARD               MONTGOMERY          PRINCE GEORGES
ST. MARYS


MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

BALTIMORE CITY
$$

 

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Interesting radar pic - what's up with the little "wave" storms north of the main line? Kind of cool looking. 

EDIT: I wonder if the earlier line may have put down some boundaries that this line will use for spin. There is some rotation evident in the velocity scans. 

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post-96-0-04795200-1359589089_thumb.gif

 

 

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (30%)


Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (20%)


Wind


Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (50%)

 

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Low (20%)

 

Hail

 

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (40%)

 

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (30%)

 

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

 

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (80%)

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WX channel reports tornado watch for all of DC metro until 2A.  NWS website does not concur, at least for Loudoun.

 

I should charge the NWS to debug their website.  If i plug in "20176" you get the warning, if you type in "leesburg, va" you do not - but you get all the other warnings.  Clearly this is an error.

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I should charge the NWS to debug their website.  If i plug in "20176" you get the warning, if you type in "leesburg, va" you do not - but you get all the other warnings.  Clearly this is an error.

 

Maybe your cache is giving you an old version of the page? Not sure. Probably NWS' fault. 

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this must be about the earliest in the year we've ever had a tornado watch

I feel like whenever we have one early in the year and it's a tor watch, the others like to follow suit later in the year regardless of the setup and if it's really supportive of tornadoes. Ex: 2008, after the derecho, pretty much every watch was a tor watch that year (sure it was a big year but I think many could have been STW). THEN, in some years, they all seem to go STW even if the prior MCD indicated tor. Just an interesting observation. 

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well.. apologies.

tho not sure it's coming together as modeled still.

i'll wait till verification to declare a loss. :P

convection sucks... hardest thing out there to forecast.

 

I'm with ya, some severe level wind gusts still in the cards but a tornado seems unlikely at this point. IMHO. I want to see the 0z sounding though.

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