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January 24-25th Potential Winter Weather Event


dmc76

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Step in the right direction, although this run was a bit cheap on the QPF.

It's funny because there's actually a hole in the QPF over Chicago, but that hole makes no sense with the surface low track, unless the northern wave behaves exactly as projected on the GFS, which serves to rob the north periphery of the southern system of moisture until phasing finally occurs over the Ohio Valley. Would be a cruel turn of events for Chicagoland, but not something to be too worried about yet.

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Not really.

 

This GEM run is very GFS-esque.

 

2-4", something but nothing special.

 

Now the UKMET on the other hand...

 

 

Actually really dry verbatim. .1-.4" QPF

 

 

I meant more the track of the Low rather then the amount of moisture. If this solution were to happen I would question that low of an amount.

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OT: maybe I'm late to the party, but the meteocentre model page has a nice model comparison deal on their website (GFS, EC, GGEM, UK for long range and GGEM, RGEM, UK, GFS, NAM for short range). You can see how last night's 0z GFS was a lone wolf at 120 hours.

 

Link here: http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=compar&map=na&run=00〈=en

Thanks for that link. I've somehow missed that before.

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12z GFS is going to be farther north/more amped up versus its 0z run...comparing them through 81/93 hours.

 

It's got a modest overrunning band with the northern clipper system, but the southern low not putting out much until it gets further east.  I don't know what it is this year with the late phasing systems.

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I meant more the track of the Low rather then the amount of moisture. If this solution were to happen I would question that low of an amount.

 

Yeah I agree its a great track, and it does look suspiciously dry...however there has been a dry trend in all the models so I wouldn't discount it

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12zeuro850mbTSLPUS120.gif

 

That's some tight thermal packing. 0C 850 line gets to KERI, -16c here. Probably some excellent lake enhancement verbatim.

 

The gradient is pretty insane. 850s of around -12 here and 0 just south of FT Wayne when it passes south of here. The zero line gets near LAF but does not get north of there while the +4 gets as far north as Indy..

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The gradient is pretty insane. 850s of around -12 here and 0 just south of FT Wayne when it passes south of here. The zero line gets near LAF but does not get north of there while the +4 gets as far north as Indy..

 

amazing , at 12z thurs we are around -14 850's....  at 12z friday we are -8 850s.   In between we get rain...lol.    Haven't had a storm track over CMH in quite awhile so to those who benefit, you're probably long overdue.  

 

oh well,if the 850 gradient is that tight, it might bode well for a quick changeover....?.... or dryslot

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.42" at DPA

 

.48" at ORD

 

850's even colder this run up around -14 deg C.

 

precip gets going back further west this run in eastern IA and wetter as Harry mentioned.

 

Yep.. As for general QPF.. .25+ from E.IA across IL/S.WI ( Whole MKE area ) and .50+ across c/s MI down into Indiana on east.

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looking at the gfs ensembles. Very close to euro track....vast majority are the same or slightly nw of it. Only looks like one member is southeast. This one might be a candidate for more nw adjustments in future runs, especially if it starts modelling stronger.

 

looks like Chicago is gonna finally get a piece of the pie

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Looks like there could some taint for LAF on the Euro. Make due with what you got I guess.

 

Needless to say, yesterday's south/drier trend is over. We'll see where we're at with tonight's runs. Fun stuff. 

 

I was reading the SNE storm thread and one of the mets there mentioned that Dec 15th 2007 storm as a comparison.

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I was reading the SNE storm thread and one of the mets there mentioned that Dec 15th 2007 storm as a comparison.

 

I got 6.5" with that storm. Had a heavy snow warning for that storm back when NWS still used that type of watch.

 

That storm did a NW trend then - looking at the NAM map above.

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looking at the gfs ensembles. Very close to euro track....vast majority are the same or slightly nw of it. Only looks like one member is southeast. This one might be a candidate for more nw adjustments in future runs, especially if it starts modelling stronger.

 

looks like Chicago is gonna finally get a piece of the pie

 

Yeah they ( that do go further north ) have a stronger northern wave ( southern one never gets going )  that tracks across the N.Plains to WI.

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