OSUmetstud Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Further west PV would quell my Jan 2004 concerns. Hopefully we'll finally get some potent systems to move into this airmass. I remember when we were chatting before it looked like the coldest anomalies would be near James Bay...but by the time all is said and done this outbreak will have the strongest anomalies east of there...hopefully we don't manage the same this time. We are still going to deal with a stronger than normal PV for some time which will tend to keep the flow fast. At least for KU's and I'd bet for signficant snowstorm you tend to not to want such a strong PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Why? after the touch the pattern looks similar to this one Oh its you again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Oh its you again.... Same guy who said the cold is always 7-10 days away....predictably, he has now abandoned that idea and moved onto hoping nobody gets any snow from the upcoming pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I see some numbers for Sunday that look too high...Sunday could be nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I see some numbers for Sunday that look too high...Sunday could be nasty. Well at least Saturday aftn into Sunday morning, wind may let up Sunday aftn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I see some numbers for Sunday that look too high...Sunday could be nasty. NWS has 23F here for Sunday...I think I would take the under on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Saranac Lake currently at -31 Edit: That ob was old, that was from 5:51am......my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 ice threat monday night on the GFS. just have to wait for the shortwave to get sampled better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 ice threat monday night on the GFS. just have to wait for the shortwave to get sampled better. LOL. Even if there's something behind that people always assume it'll mean things work out better. Heavy sea smoke this morning, closest thing I'll get to falling precip for several more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Maybe some snow and ice Monday night into Tuesday and then Wednesday big torch. Luckily short lived, but if the GFS is right it may be near 60 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Monday night does look interesting most places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Monday night does look interesting most places. yeah too bad it has to be followed by april for 2 days because i always enjoy those weak overrunning set-ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 yeah too bad it has to be followed by april for 2 days because i always enjoy those weak overrunning set-ups. I know, it may be a brief warmup luckily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 GFS looks perfect for our GTG at Berkshire East Tues, nice WAA snows with warmer softer snow on Tues, hope it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 93-94 is coming. Except the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 If the OP GFS comes close to verifying there will be some unhappy campers. Two cutters and cold in between/after. There aren't many times in my life when I could look at the OP GFS and not see a real snow threat being modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 If the OP GFS comes close to verifying there will be some unhappy campers. Two cutters and cold in between/after. There aren't many times in my life when I could look at the OP GFS and not see a real snow threat being modeled. Well we saw what this last cutter did so I take zero/zip/zilch credence in any modeling outside of 3-4 days. Enjoy the cold/dry conditions. It's all we got. Can't even skate on the ponds yet and not enough snow to sled on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Test Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The problem is fixed! Thank you. What was it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 If the OP GFS comes close to verifying there will be some unhappy campers. Two cutters and cold in between/after. There aren't many times in my life when I could look at the OP GFS and not see a real snow threat being modeled. You must be young as bad as it is, it's done this before. The 1980's were notorious for this kind of bs... It would be interesting to figure out exactly why we get into these ruts where it's warm or frigid but actual "snow" seems like it's being attacked by probability. What I am toying around with is that the explanation is simple, though. The ridge in the west was never ideally situated recently (nor back in the days of yore when this crap happened..) when the ridge is centered over the Rockies cordillera proper, the flow becomes unified into a single stream event, with a kind of fixed node L/W axis centered between 90 and 80 west. The L/W wobbles across the 10 longitude in periodicity and you get timely winter storms in perpetuity. But when the construct "looks" good but doesn't turn out that way, try focusing in on that ridge position out west - it will either be too far E, or too far west.. It really seems there's only about 15 of longitude to fiddle with that, otherwise you wind up with all kind of issues. Too far east by a small amount and storms blow up S of NS and you get Montreal Express cold waves over the OV/MA/NE regions. Slightly too far W and you get flow bifurcation over the ripping mountain tops of the Rockies, and that's akin to a flopping unmanned fire hose spraying solutions all over the field - we've been more in the latter over the last ...well, this winter so far, really. The best winter I can remember for ideal ridge location and well-behaved, timely distribution of events (spatial-temporal), and a forecaster's dream was 1995-1996. In fact, Harv and I used to comment how that winter is what really raised the bar (expectation) for the masses. Storms ... some 10 days in advance, could be ferreted out of the flow and seemed to verify with panache every time. It kind of disillusioned the masses (so to speak) into thinking the science/industry standard had evolved to a sophistication that in reality wasn't really there. You get a couple of idiosyncratic anomalies about the flow and that beautiful spatial-temporal arrangements of events get obliterated by permutation breakdowns, and viola! Can't see a storm even at D3 to save our arses! It's interesting... Compounding this even further, just because the ridge is not ideally situated ...oh, call it between the Rockies cordillera and the Dakotas (somewhere in that longitude), there can be fun times. The point is, when the ridge is not there, the probability incoherence in the flow is on the high/problematic side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The problem is fixed! Thank you. What was it? Donating group issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Donating group issue.lol really? So those that donated got bent over FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 You must be young as bad as it is, it's done this before. The 1980's were notorious for this kind of bs... It would be interesting to figure out exactly why we get into these ruts where it's warm or frigid but actual "snow" seems like it's being attacked by probability. What I am toying around with is that the explanation is simple, though. The ridge in the west was never ideally situated recently (nor back in the days of yore when this crap happened..) when the ridge is centered over the Rockies cordillera proper, the flow becomes unified into a single stream event, with a kind of fixed node L/W axis centered between 90 and 80 west. The L/W wobbles across the 10 longitude in periodicity and you get timely winter storms in perpetuity. But when the construct "looks" good but doesn't turn out that way, try focusing in on that ridge position out west - it will either be too far E, or too far west.. It really seems there's only about 15 of longitude to fiddle with that, otherwise you wind up with all kind of issues. Too far east by a small amount and storms blow up S of NS and you get Montreal Express cold waves over the OV/MA/NE regions. Slightly too far W and you get flow bifurcation over the ripping mountain tops of the Rockies, and that's akin to a flopping unmanned fire hose spraying solutions all over the field - we've been more in the latter over the last ...well, this winter so far, really. The best winter I can remember for ideal ridge location and well-behaved, timely distribution of events (spatial-temporal), and a forecaster's dream was 1995-1996. In fact, Harv and I used to comment how that winter is what really raised the bar (expectation) for the masses. Storms ... some 10 days in advance, could be ferreted out of the flow and seemed to verify with panache every time. It kind of disillusioned the masses (so to speak) into thinking the science/industry standard had evolved to a sophistication that in reality wasn't really there. You get a couple of idiosyncratic anomalies about the flow and that beautiful spatial-temporal arrangements of events get obliterated by permutation breakdowns, and viola! Can't see a storm even at D3 to save our arses! It's interesting... Compounding this even further, just because the ridge is not ideally situated ...oh, call it between the Rockies cordillera and the Dakotas (somewhere in that longitude), there can be fun times. The point is, when the ridge is not there, the probability incoherence in the flow is on the high/problematic side. Tip how did you know Harvey Leonard? Did you work with him at Channel 7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 From Wow in the Help Forum. "I believe it is only affecting Gold and Super subscriptions as I revised the permission mask setting last night because of a software glitch not allowing mets to access a particular forum. It looks like that action produced this issue. I've just restored the subscriptions to the original settings. Let me know if you're still having posting problems." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 It is surprising more of the regulars here haven't donated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 It is surprising more of the regulars here haven't donated They're saving the money for their snow plowing budgets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 lol really? So those that donated got bent over FTLWell we know who does not need to donate now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Tip how did you know Harvey Leonard? Did you work with him at Channel 7? Yeah, internship in '96... couple of semesters. The job entailed hanging weather graphics and organization of notes and stuff in prep for his nightly gig - yes at the station. We've remained in email correspondence over the years. In fact, we just recently had a back-and-forth over Sandy. He's actually extremely level headed and down to Earth - cliche, I know, but true. He makes the snow zealots around here blush - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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