nzucker Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The Euro has been cutter loving in the medium to long range ever since its upgrade so unless you've got a markedly hostile cutter pattern Day 6 or beyond it will tend to like showing them...its usually a good sign if you start seeing it move away from the idea though eventually and it seems it may be doing that now on that storm. The 6z GFS still has a bit of a cutter after it starts as snow here. However, the 6z GFS trended colder with the arctic shot Tuesday-Thursday as well. It now has the -20C 850 contour south of NYC, whereas previous runs had it around Poughkeepsie. Wednesday looks to be the coldest day with 850s around -21C. Should give us highs in the teens to low 20s area-wide. 6z GFS also shows a renewed EPO block in the long-range with very cold air once again moving into the eastern US. We might have to deal with one cutter before the Alaska block re-develops, but the models seem to favor a +PNA/-EPO look in the longer-range. Should have some interesting implications for early February, when climo most favors snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 The event in that 180-216 range shown on alot of models the last 2-3 days needs to stay somewhat weak, if it does we've got a shot at a decent snow, even if it ends as freezing rain or rain because you can be sure that high will be slower to exit than the models currently show and we'd get solid overrunning snows but as usual if it wants to crank a 988mb low over Wisconsin we're in trouble. That's what the CMC does (and what the GFS has been trending to). You can see on the image that I posted from the CMC, that it keeps the system relatively weak at around 1008 mb, looks very SWFE-ish on the CMC, with a decent amount of precipitation. The ECM turns this into more of a Miller B system off of the Jersey coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The JMA is ranked number 3 I think overall within the models. Just saw this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Does the Euro show anything with the clipper? This doesn't look bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Does the Euro show anything with the clipper? This doesn't look bad. Snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Snow showers. Thanks. Just like the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The 0z Euro even drops the PV in for the next weekend storm that it blows up for next Saturday into the Miller B. It seems that the dropping down of the PV is what stirs up that clipper and causes the Miller B to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 As I posted in the other thread, I think NYC's major snowstorm waits until the beginning of February. We might see a coating to an inch Tuesday, and then a potential moderate snowstorm with a SWFE/late-blooming coastal, but I'm not seeing a KU monster until February. With the MJO going into Phase 8 as the Kelvin Wave crosses the tropical Pacific, signals are strong for a very powerful PNA spike and falling NAO in early February: There could be a short moderation after the January 21-25 arctic outbreak, but a snowy/cold pattern will emerge in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The 0z ECMWF has widespread single digits, by thursday AM. Maybe below 3F over Western LI: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The system that is shown as a miss now Day 4-5 really needs to be watched for inverted trof development somewhere from here through SNE...the setup is pretty good at 850 and 700 with very light winds and the 500mb setup is good as well. These don't occur often as we know but this time the upper level setup is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The 0z ECMWF has widespread single digits, by thursday AM. Maybe below 3F over Western LI: 0zEuro2mtemps.png Wednesday and Thursday mornings both look very cold with temperatures in the single digits to low teens (urban areas). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The system that is shown as a miss now Day 4-5 really needs to be watched for inverted trof development somewhere from here through SNE...the setup is pretty good at 850 and 700 with very light winds and the 500mb setup is good as well. These don't occur often as we know but this time the upper level setup is there. Could see some local enhancement of snow squalls with the vort channel moving back across the Great Lakes. It would probably be something more mesoscale that could make people in the exact locations happy, while others relatively close get nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 i don't see any meaningful snow threats during the next week at least. cold and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Noreaster27 will def get his cold next week. Models have been trending colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 New MJO output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 New MJO output. AHHHH , there my phase 8 . 1 wall left to scale . get the NAO NEG AND KEEP IT THERE . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 New MJO output. do you know what the MJO actually is or are you just posting these charts because you heard phase 8 is good for snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 do you know what the MJO actually is or are you just posting these charts because you heard phase 8 is good for snow? I know what some phases are but not all of them. What's your point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 29 degrees at 11:15 hello January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Sw flow event on gfs for the end of next week. Air mass holds strong as we start out as snow. I would not be shock if it trends further south in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 29 degrees at 11:15 hello January I'm just under 30F, if we can be this cold now, imagine how much colder it could be early next week with a much stronger arctic wave. I think highs in the upper teens are definitely not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The temperature is holding steadily at 28F with winds NNW @ 12 mph, gusting up to 22 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Yeah, next week will probably have a high temperature at 20F for Southern Westchester County. Mainly due to what's going on now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I'm just under 30F, if we can be this cold now, imagine how much colder it could be early next week with a much stronger arctic wave. I think highs in the upper teens are definitely not out of the question.not sure how much stronger it will be, 850s are -17 over NYC right now with a north wind which is great for NYC cold. Next week looks more NW flow. I could see a high a few degrees colder in the mid 20s for next week. Anything cold than that will be hard unless its cloudy outside or snowing. Then a 20 or so high could be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 not sure how much stronger it will be, 850s are -17 over NYC right now with a north wind which is great for NYC cold. Next week looks more NW flow. I could see a high a few degrees colder in the mid 20s for next week. Anything cold than that will be hard unless its cloudy outside or snowing. Then a 20 or so high could be possible. so..most of next week will have highs in the 20's and lows in the teens..there is no debate about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Beware , next weekend in the Northeast , Yesterdays 12z GFS took the low thru Madison Wisc into southern Canada . lotta of us here discussed yesterday it would prob belly under . Todays 12Z take it takes it from Southern ILL to off the coast of Cape Cod . Once it absords the low level cold air throughout the northeast in the model early next week , I think you will see it come even further south like the 0z Euro . As it is , very different look from yesterdays 12z . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 so..most of next week will have highs in the 20's and lows in the teens..there is no debate about that sounds about right, this cold shot is actually strong just super fast, -17 at 850 is cold in any book. Will be near 50 tomorrow as I predicted last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Can't we just get a NYC day with highs around 10 and lows between 0 and -5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 How would that help anyone? BTW, next snow threat will likely be at the tail end in the series of arctic outbreaks. Can't we just get a NYC day with highs around 10 and lows between 0 and -5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Mon - Thrs next will average 10 -15 below average . You guys do realize thats a cold air mass when you consider theres no Snow on the ground . If anyone doesnt think thats cold , go find the last time NYC was 10 -15 below for 4 days . Its not as common as you would think . Bet its close to 1 in every 3 yrs , if you go back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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