Snow_Miser Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 The fact that it got warmer, and still on the colder side of the envelop has me hesitant to use it. It's very boarder line for you guys. I'm 100% sure I will be rain. Guys just north of me really have no room for error I think we will have a middle ground solution. The 18z NAM is probably too cold, and the 18z GFS is probably too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Just had some sleet mixed in with some rain a few minutes ago in Garwood (central Union County NJ)?!! I had some sleet in southern Westchester County around 9:15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Nam is moderate to heavy snow for the City ending as drizzle. It starts as snow, maybe 2", but it changes to rain by end. This is snow This is snow This is mix This is rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Over by hour 42. Maybe drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 I'm getting some sort of a mix now in Somerset County as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Over by hour 42. Maybe drizzle. Not quite, still 0.06" after 42, and its probably rain by 40 or 41, so definitely plain rain for a few hours at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 It starts as snow, maybe 2", but it changes to rain by end. This is snow http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=attach§ion=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=84707'>NYC1.gif This is snow [img=https://www.amwx.us/public/style_images/American_Weather/attachicon.gif] http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=attach§ion=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=84708'>NYC2.gif This is mix [img=https://www.amwx.us/public/style_images/American_Weather/attachicon.gif] http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=attach§ion=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=84709'>NYC3.gif This is rain [img=https://www.amwx.us/public/style_images/American_Weather/attachicon.gif] http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=attach§ion=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=84710'>NYC4.gif Only .05" of precip left after hour 42. The bulk falls by hours 33-39. Those soundings represent cooling as heavier precip is falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 0z Nam snowmap http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znamsnow_NE048.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 0z Nam snowmap http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znamsnow_NE048.gif That's only hours 36-48. Hours 24-36 has another 1"-2" for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 0z Nam snowmap http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znamsnow_NE048.gif Agrees with my interpretation of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I'm getting some sort of a mix now in Somerset County as well. Where in Somerset? Of course my thermometer isn't registering right now. Looks like my area will be lucky to see a little mix this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Precip type on the Nam Hour 36 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znamptype036.gif Hour 42 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znamptype042.gif It looks mostly snow for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Agrees with my interpretation of the NAM.Again. That is a 12 hour snowfall map from hours 36-48.In addition to that, NYC sees 1"-2" more, hours 24-36 on those maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 still looking at a nice little 2-4" for the interior NW burbs. need to get my fix in before i officially move down south so i will take it and enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Again. That is a 12 hour snowfall map from hours 36-48. In addition to that NYC sees 1"-2" more hours 24-36 on those maps. I do believe I said "maybe 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 Where in Somerset? Of course my thermometer isn't registering right now. Looks like my area will be lucky to see a little mix this week. Close to Somerville. Currently 44 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I do believe I said "maybe 2".Gotcha. I agree that based on NAM soundings and skew-ts, NYC is 2"-3", which is in line with the Euro and a bit less then the rgem.Just want to make it clear that snow88's map is not the total snow map. It's only snow from hours 36-48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 This is very marginal situation here....a bit of a bump south and we get a couple inches possibly...north and no flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 00z RGEM is also warmer. Looks like a very slightly warmer version of the 00z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Lets be honest here friends....it's not been a great winter we know it s far....honestly speaking I think we all know we are looking at a CHANCE of up to an inch outside of the NW burbs with elevation. 00z is coming in WARMER not colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 0z RGEM is a thing of beauty for the interior... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mweisenfeld Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 All rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 GFS looks somewhat cooler than previous runs, though way warmer than the NAM and the RGEM still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 This looks like another north and west of I-287 special, few inches there most likely. NAM is likely too cold when other models are warmer. GFS might be too warm, but this looks like yet another marginal event that gives most a cold, mid 30s rain. There's not a great cold air source north of us to force the cold air in, and it just looks like a crummy, non-dynamic event overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 NYC probably doesnt accumulate with type of set up . Our fun begins after this , anything this would have yielded in the city would hav been a bonus . This does not diminish whats waiting in the wings . The weeklies and CFS v2 match up really well , pos pna - neg epo - neg nao and finally like i have been saying the mjo is progged to head into phase 8 . Patience, the pattern is evolving into a favorable one , once past Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Currently- Mod. snow and sleet falling. All surfaces covered. 32.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 It'll be all rain for most of us, you'll have to go far N&W to see accumulations. We do not do well with poor and marginal airmasses. It's far more likely we see some snow when it finally gets colder, even if the overall pattern is a dry one. There will always be opportunities for a clipper or minor events when we have a cold airmass in place, but very unlikely in a marginal airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Looks like NYC is the battleground on the GGEM http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/530_100.gif http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/531_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Seems like one of the situations where the Bronx sees 2-4" while Brooklyn is mostly rain... if it even sticks in the Bronx/upper Manhattan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Precip type on the Nam Hour 36 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znamptype036.gif Hour 42 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znamptype042.gif It looks mostly snow for the area. Probably not correct and even if it was, I don't think we'd get much if any accumulation. One can see on the fous data that when one level of the atmosphere is cold enough, another is too warm. Starts out with upper levels too warm, ends up with surface and lower levels too warm. Even if some sleet and a few wet flakes fly with temps in the low-mid 30s at best, it should amount to little or nothing. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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