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Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 3


IWXwx

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Short on time today but want to thank you guys for the great discussion and glad to be a part of it. 

 

I thought I would add my thoughts for today, I don't expect these cold solutions to be consistent I think we will still see lots of inconsistency until the events....Here is a recap of Dec. 20 from 20 days ago with mention of shortwave for eastern US Jan 10-11, on Jan 5 I amend the 10-13th to be another warm up (instead of cold air) based on a more powerful GWO signal. Obviously every saw a peak in temps on Jan 9 and expecting another peak on sun 13th. With colder air arriving after that.  Everything still jives for the rest of the thoughts through the beginning of Feb. especially in regards to 850 Temp forecasts. Again I think we will see the GFS/Euro hold back the coldest air until after the 24th. Even though it's on the edge right now bringing it in on the 23rd.

 

post-3697-0-46319400-1357935251_thumb.jp

 

Posted 20 December 2012 - 03:49 AM

 
I extended my outlook through Jan 8 on Dec. 14. I still feel comfortable with those dates and with the newest GWO analogs and latest 10 and 30 mb temp forecast it appears the time frame between Jan 7-10 will see a warm up over the east with a short wave moving through the east Jan 10-11 with cooler air dropping in behind it for Jan 10-13 across the MW/GLKS and then pockets of cooler air arriving Jan 15-19 time frame for the east followed by a second reinforcement of cooler air Jan 20-24. My GWO analogs only take me out to Jan 9 so there may be another short wave or two to add to the 2 already expected for the Jan 9-24 time frame. I will update as the newest GWO numbers come out over the next week and half.
 
Posted  5 January 2013 - 12:18 AM

I think the GFS is being a little too bullish on the cold air and too fast. Based on GWO and strat. analogs I'm guessing the coldest core of the 850 temps behind the short waves for the Jan 12-19 time frame will remain warmer than -15C then be reinforced with a coldest core of -15 to -25C for Jan 21-25 with a core of cold in the -25 to -30C range possibly as cold as -36C at some point for Jan 25-30. With -33C sneaking over the northern plains or GLKS or NE. Of course the cores of the coldest air will probably remain north of the border but still one can extrapolate what kind of 850 temps would be making down to the central US with those types of 850 temps just north of border.  

 

Again since I'm short on time today here are my thoughts from last night that still hold water today for myself at least after the 0z 12z GFS runs...  

 

Posted Yesterday, 06:29 PM

Well the 12z Euro has -36C in Maine for 1/19 12z and 12z GFS has -36C in northern MN at 12z for 1/20. And those types of temps have been showing up from time to time on the runs. That's obviously not the 24-27 time frame but gives credence that the models believe it's physically possible to achieve those type of temps in the next couple weeks. Plus as I recall the GFS was indicating these types of 850 temps arriving for Jan 15-16 back a week ago which now has been pushed back to the 19th. I mentioned previously that I thought that the models last week were rushing the coldest air in too soon. I still think that and think we will see this coldest air delayed again by the models for another 4-5 days til the at least the 24th 

 

post-3697-0-31792700-1357936190_thumb.jp

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Dry and Cold,, what a nice combo...

The key will be if we can get clippers and the lakes to at least rewhiten the ground. It turned into a pretty good winter December 21st, already a 3 week period that surpassed last year, but all it has taken is one quick torch to ruin things, at least temporarily. You cant expect such a cold pattern to feature big storms, but it will be a huge disappointment if the ground stays bare. Note also how relatively green the grass is. We had a torchy first 3 weeks of December then snow immediately insulated the ground once the cold arrived.

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With the polar vortex over southern Hudson Bay, the flow should direct clippers in to the region. That's the way I see it.

 

Flow coming from the western Prairie Providences. A Clipper train is probably on the table this month.

 

00zENS6-10day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif

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The key will be if we can get clippers and the lakes to at least rewhiten the ground. It turned into a pretty good winter December 21st, already a 3 week period that surpassed last year, but all it has taken is one quick torch to ruin things, at least temporarily. You cant expect such a cold pattern to feature big storms, but it will be a huge disappointment if the ground stays bare. Note also how relatively green the grass is. We had a torchy first 3 weeks of December then snow immediately insulated the ground once the cold arrived.

 

 

Yeah, with such a cold pattern, hopefully we can get some good clippers with some good ratios. And, i've noticed that aswel with the grass being very green. We cant change the pattern, so I guess  lets just enjoy what we get. 

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Josh what did 94 look like? Can't believe you forgot 94!!!! -25f in Detroit

 

Oh I didnt forget it...I was mainly focusing on arctic blasts that featured no snowcover, 1994 had decent snow depth. Jan 19, 1994 is officially Detroits coldest day on record (hi -4, lo -20). The unofficial coldest temp is -24F in Dec 1872 but records (without some error) officially begin in 1874.

 

Detroits low temps of -15F or colder and corresponding snowcover (I will rank in order simply of coldest Low). Looks like all the big daddys of cold waves had firm snowpack.

 

.....................High.....Low....Snowcover

01-21-1984......1......-21.......3"

01-19-1994.....-4......-20.......8"

02-09-1875......?......-20.......?

01-18-1976.....11.....-18.......5"

01-12-1918.....26.....-16.......7"

02-05-1918.....13.....-16.......9"

01-25-1897.......2.....-16.......5"

01-15-2009.......3.....-15.....10"

01-18-1994.......1.....-15.......8"

02-03-1985.....16.....-15.......6"

01-17-1982......-1.....-15.......4"

02-14-1905.....13.....-15.....16"

01-03-1879.......7.....-15.......?

How is it that Detroit's all time record low is only 11 degrees colder than Memphis?

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How is it that Detroit's all time record low is only 11 degrees colder than Memphis? Sent from my DroidX using Tapatalk 2

 

Called the Great Lakes. Have seen a number of times when it is like around 0 here while it is -10 to -15 just to the south in Indiana. What happens is usually it will be cloudy ( or even snowing ) thanks to the lake while it is clear and calm down that way. A west/wnw flow will bring the clouds ( even snow at times )  all the way to Detroit.

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Called the Great Lakes. Have seen a number of times when it is like around 0 here while it is -10 to -15 just to the south in Indiana. What happens is usually it will be cloudy ( or even snowing ) thanks to the lake while it is clear and calm down that way. A west/wnw flow will bring the clouds ( even snow at times )  all the way to Detroit.

West flow? What is that? I just know north and east winds around here....

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How is it that Detroit's all time record low is only 11 degrees colder than Memphis? Sent from my DroidX using Tapatalk 2

 

Called the Great Lakes. Have seen a number of times when it is like around 0 here while it is -10 to -15 just to the south in Indiana. What happens is usually it will be cloudy ( or even snowing ) thanks to the lake while it is clear and calm down that way. A west/wnw flow will bring the clouds ( even snow at times )  all the way to Detroit.

I've been to the lakes in the summer where the lakefront is much cooler on a hot afternoon. I presume that the opposite us true in the winter where cold nights are much warmer by the lake?

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West flow? What is that? I just know north and east winds around here....

When I lived in N indiana, up until a couple years ago, it seemed we evenly split the lake effect with western MI. Seemed to always be some good west flow events. I had an Aunt in Montague then, and she usually had deep snow all winter.

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When I lived in N indiana, up until a couple years ago, it seemed we evenly split the lake effect with western MI. Seemed to always be some good west flow events. I had an Aunt in Montague then, and she usually had deep snow all winter.

 

 

Yeah.. Other then 08-09 it has been pretty lacking with the west/wnw flow events going back to 01-02.. Yeah there has been a few ( Had a decent one in Dec 2009 ) but nothing close to climo. Thus why many in the snowbelts took decent hits  ( Muskegon use to average  around 106" but now it is down to about 92" ) with the updated snowfall averages except in Van Buren and I94 which was mainly a result of a more active weather pattern vs LES east of Van Buren. Talking GRR zones.. Unsure about IWX MI counties?

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When I lived in N indiana, up until a couple years ago, it seemed we evenly split the lake effect with western MI. Seemed to always be some good west flow events. I had an Aunt in Montague then, and she usually had deep snow all winter.

Did you ever get to experience a good lake effect event when visiting her?

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Looks like a clipper pattern to me, with the lack of phasing.

 

Beyond the 20th looks like a better pattern if the GFS ensembles are to be trusted.  I think the problem for the coming week is the Rossby response from the MJO is too strong.  Once the MJO dies down the PNA may relax a little ending the southern stream suppression.  

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