IWXwx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I noticed that Part 2 hit 1000 posts. Let's see if the last 10 days of January can behave like the last 10 days of December, otherwise the board may implode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 The board will probably implode anyway...but...lots of potential to watch this week. While flooding in the south seems a near sure bet, further north it could be very snowy or very nothing. Moisture is a near-guarentee, but will it be all in the warm sector? Its possible, but in January, I just have a feeling that will not be the case. Even in our warmest winters, January systems such as these tend to have snow on the backside. Something looks to be brewing Sunday, and then the models are all over the place for next week. With all the talk of how much or little cold we will have later in January, Id say the storm potential is the first order of business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I think we've had more Medium/Long Range discussion and complaint threads combined then we've had storm threads. (Or at least storm threads that turned out with actual storms) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I think we've had more Medium/Long Range discussion and complaint threads combined then we've had storm threads. (Or at least storm threads that turned out with actual storms) Yup, get all excited about the medium and long range...then fuss when nothing happens...rinse and repeat. That MAY finally change next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 While the se part of the region could have some issues ( can thank that se ridge ) the rest should be fine as far as snow/cold goes. Most models now crash ( even after a loop around ) the mjo just past the phase 6/7 line which is typically where most of us want it in this region. We DO NOT want it to make a run into 8-1.. Welcome to suppression city if that happens. Ofcourse Ohio peeps would like that though. They should get theirs though a little further out. FWIW the latest euro monthlies are showing the coldest departures i have seen in a while and they are aimed right at the GL/OV/N.Plains for Feb with the coldest right over top of the GL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 00z Euro looks like it might try to drop the cold air in farther west than the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 While the se part of the region could have some issues ( can thank that se ridge ) the rest should be fine as far as snow/cold goes. Most models now crash ( even after a loop around ) the mjo just past the phase 6/7 line which is typically where most of us want it in this region. We DO NOT want it to make a run into 8-1.. Welcome to suppression city if that happens. Ofcourse Ohio peeps would like that though. They should get theirs though a little further out. FWIW the latest euro monthlies are showing the coldest departures i have seen in a while and they are aimed right at the GL/OV/N.Plains for Feb with the coldest right over top of the GL. Considering the MJO forecast, this is what the Euro is showing: And here is the different phases shown center on Jan, in other words DJF: I would think you would want the MJO to go a strong phase 7 and than quickly dive into a weak phase 8, or even go into the COD to favor the OV area, but the Euro keeps it in phase 7 to 6. Just my thoughts for what it's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Considering the MJO forecast, this is what the Euro is showing: And here is the different phases shown center on Jan, in other words DJF: I would think you would want the MJO to go a strong phase 7 and than quickly dive into a weak phase 8, or even go into the COD to favor the OV area, but the Euro keeps it in phase 7 to 6. Just my thoughts for what it's worth. They take in the ave temp going back decades. See 07-08. Thing hardly spent any time in phase 8-1 yet just about the whole region did very well. When it finally made a nice tick into phase 1 in March everything went south. For HERE ( sw MI ) i prefer it go into the COD in 7. Weak into 8 may work though.. 2007-08 2008-09 which was very good here.. It is not a exact science but yeah for my backyard i like 7.. This shows how those maps can also be deceiving.. winter of 77-78.. Note Jan which was not a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Harry: At any rate we will see what happens. The MJO has screwed many of the long term forecast that have been put out the past 48 months including some of the best long term forecasters out there, both amateurs and pros alike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 One other heads up, and Hoosier might want to delete this because it has nothing to do with weather. I have started a thread in sports zone about Big Ten basketball. It looks like a exciting year for several teams!!! We may have more fun in that thread than talking about boring weather patterns here....LMOF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 The Fim model just blew up southern WI with storm # 3, this is the 30km Fim, I do not know what the 15km shows yet. The 15km is similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 06 GFS looks brutally cold and its well within a reasonable range too.... Looks like the coldest air in a few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 06 GFS looks brutally cold and its well within a reasonable range too.... Looks like the coldest air in a few years. Finally something within 7 days. It's shows -26C 850 temps in S WI. I would live to see that happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Finally something within 7 days. It's shows -26C 850 temps in S WI. I would live to see that happen. Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Huh? What do you mean? Unless I am looking at an outdated GFS image at hr 172 it shows a pocket of arctic air over WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 What do you mean? Unless I am looking at an outdated GFS image at hr 172 it shows a pocket of arctic air over WI. Probably looking at a more modest scenario, but it will be quite cold... Euro ensembles are more aggressive than the operational for a first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 12Z looks more aggressive (GFS). Might have to add a new color to the negative chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 The cold is coming...and it looks formidable. Unfortunately the pattern is crap for anything outside LES shots and particularly moisture starved clippers...the first of which will have a shot of playing futility spoiler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 The cold is coming...and it looks formidable. Unfortunately the pattern is crap for anything outside LES shots and particularly moisture starved clippers...the first of which will have a shot of playing futility spoiler. Yeah a 1.2" 20-1 ratio clipper to break the futility record would be a shot to the chops. At least give us advisory snow if it is going down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Yeah a 1.2" 20-1 ratio clipper to break the futility record would be a shot to the chops. At least give us advisory snow if it is going down. After the weekend threat passes, I'm going to start a thread for the 1/16-17 clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 LES looking good for NWLM Wed thru Fri next week.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 LES looking good for NWLM Wed thru Fri next week.... Does that include me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Does that include me? If a WNW wind favors you then yes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 That cold keeps reloading... There are 3 seperate periods of extreme cold on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 We could set record highs and lows this month.... Not very common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 The 6z and 12z GFS runs were certainly positive developments with regard to cold. I would love a week or so of what Harbin, China is currently experiencing. That would freeze up the ponds and small lakes for sure! Looks like I could get into some lake effect in Toronto around the 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Cold dry air is so yawn. Wow, most of us get to look forward to our nose hairs freeIng and 200$ + gas bills. Ill pass and hope for a slightly warmer and active pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Cold dry air is so yawn. Wow, most of us get to look forward to our nose hairs freeIng and 200$ + gas bills. Ill pass and hope for a slightly warmer and active pattern. Looks like a lot of clippers.... Warmer air brings more storms, but often enough you end up with daily melting and mid 30's. Terrible for recreation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Cold dry air is so yawn. Wow, most of us get to look forward to our nose hairs freeIng and 200$ + gas bills. Ill pass and hope for a slightly warmer and active pattern. I wouldn't want it for weeks on end. Just a week or so to kill off any insects or pests. Then warm up to the upper teens/low 20s with a 12-18" snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Yea! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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