weathafella Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 06z GFS Ensm. Bet it delivers more in the retro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 If they don't who cares? It's still gonna snow Whose to say they don't wiff at 12z? I'd fell more comfortable the closer to the coast I am right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 If I was in ENE I'd feel good. (I am and I do) Edit: Yeah, what Bob said lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Bet it delivers more in the retro. Nope, the 84h panel is a close as they get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Whose to say they don't wiff at 12z? I'd fell more comfortable the closer to the coast I am right now. Phil is closest followed by Scott and me. I think you meant furthest east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I think in the end this thing wraps up pretty tight and and stays in closer to the coast. Snow for all but some taint in the usual places SE. It's below zero here again this AM, another cold/snowy Winter in New England. Have fun today guys, I'll sacrifice something in the name of Ullr. White Christmas for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Nope, the 84h panel is a close as they get. Still measurable snow for you and I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The 00z euro is still pretty darn good for eastern areas . People should not focus just on the low itself, but we will have comma head/trowal snows for many hours potentially. It gives BOS almost 1" QPF. I'll be surprised if we have mostly a whiff in eastern New England. We've alsio seen this movie before where the final 48 hrs displays some shifts back to the west. It may not happen in this case, but with a potent s/w trying to go negative...I'll take my chances for sn in eastern areas. LOL, this is why caution is key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 wow...I need to go to bed, almost 7:00 and I have to go to work in 7-8 hours...will try to wake up around 1 and look at the 12z models. Would be nice they they could come further west but things are looking fine right now, will be nice to get some snow cover in just a little less than 72 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 It looks like there is a s/w coming in behind from the NW that may act as a kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Whose to say they don't wiff at 12z? I'd fell more comfortable the closer to the coast I am right now. We're all going to see snow. I actually think the closer to the coast you are the better your chances of mixing/rain are esp on the retro..I like where Will and I sit currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 The 00z euro is still pretty darn good for eastern areas . People should not focus just on the low itself, but we will have comma head/trowal snows for many hours potentially. It gives BOS almost 1" QPF. I'll be surprised if we have mostly a whiff in eastern New England. We've alsio seen this movie before where the final 48 hrs displays some shifts back to the west. It may not happen in this case, but with a potent s/w trying to go negative...I'll take my chances for sn in eastern areas. LOL, this is why caution is key. I don't want to be the downer, it's just that the Euro is not showing what it was 12h ago. I will gladly take what the Euro is showing now but I am not positive the model is done shifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 We're all going to see snow. I actually think the closer to the coast you are the better your chances of mixing/rain are esp on the retro..I like where Will and I sit currently All weenieing aside, I feel better about SE MA (Foxboro, Mansfield, Norton, Easton, Brockton) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I don't want to be the downer, it's just that the Euro is not showing what it was 12h ago. I will gladly take what the Euro is showing now but I am not positive the model is done shifting. I like to think (ignorantly, admittedly, but it gets me by) that the Euro is zeroing in on the final solution ... west ... east ... a little west ... a little east. Bingo. So, I'm looking for a nudge west at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 All weenieing aside, I feel better about SE MA (Foxboro, Mansfield, Norton, Easton, Brockton) Hadn't even read the AFD and low and behold. THEREFORE WE DECIDED TO CHANGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST VERY LITTLE ANDJUST BLEND IN A BIT OF THE NEW GUIDANCE. THIS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE HIGHEST RISK AREA FOR SUBSTANTIAL SNOW AND WIND WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN MA AND POSSIBLY INTO RI. HOWEVER GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL FLUCTUATIONS FROM RUN TO RUN ITS WAY TOO EARLY TO LOCK INTO ONE GIVEN SOLUTION AND ELABORATE ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WILL JUST HAVE TO BE PATIENT AND SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AND WAIT FOR MODELS TO DISPLAY RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 I like to think (ignorantly, admittedly, but it gets me by) that the Euro is zeroing in on the final solution ... west ... east ... a little west ... a little east. Bingo. So, I'm looking for a nudge west at 12z. I think we all are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I don't want to be the downer, it's just that the Euro is not showing what it was 12h ago. I will gladly take what the Euro is showing now but I am not positive the model is done shifting. Yeah it could go east, but look at the unstable nature of the models. I honestly have no clue what will happen. I was pretty excited yesterday too, but the old wives tale of never being in the model bullseye 4 days out is true. I kept my excitement at a minimum and glad I did. IMO I don't really see much of an eastward shift at all. I'd say the odds are 60/40 maybe even 70/30 of this ticking west just a little. It's speculation at this point, because the model swings leave me almost dumbfounded, but look at all the moving parts here. It's no surprise. That said, I wouldn't be amazed if it went east a little more, but like I said...I think the odds are a little better of a westward shift...at least a slight one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well, I'm already locked in for a White Christmas here but more snow is always better. I just think it's funny how people get suckered by one model run be it good or bad. With little or no continuity you can't put much stock in anything right now. All that we really know is something is likely to pop along the East coast in 48-60 hours from now. If I had to bet I'd bet on evrybody getting a decent thump. The big culprit was the back-to-back EC monsters at 00z/12z yesterday with the big shift west of the 12z gfs. That's what had everyone glued. I'm not convinced we'll all get a decent thump over the next several days, though I do expect many will. I am convinved that the models for this have universally sucked which has made it very enjoyable to watch this threat thread quickly go from exhuberance to train-wreck every 6 hours. Better yet are all the anxieities that come within these extremes ("oh no--mixing issues" in the midst of the big dog runs. "But the Korean and SREF are coming NW--and it's a full moon" as people grasp for an ice flow as the Titanic goes down). I don't need KU's to make me happy. More often than not (I think), they tend to leave God's country out of the major stuff. I agree with most on this board that any snow is good snow. I would much rather have my snow in frequent 'refreshers' than in a couple of big events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Phil is closest followed by Scott and me. I think you meant furthest east? Ahem!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Shortest prelim disco I've seen in some time, lol.....even the best in the business are at a loss for words PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 359 AM EST FRI DEC 17 2010 VALID 12Z TUE DEC 21 2010 - 12Z FRI DEC 24 2010 USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 12Z/16 ECENS MEAN AND THE 00Z/17 GEFS MEAN FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE GFS TRENDED WESTWARD WITH THE BIG EAST COAST LOW DAY 3...WHILE THE ECMWF TRENDED DRAMATICALLY EASTWARD. WITH THE FLIP-FLOPPING AND CROSSING TRENDS...FELT THE BEST OPTION ACROSS THE NATION WAS TO BLEND THE MOST RECENT MEANS FROM THE MAJOR MODELING CENTERS TO MINIMIZE ERRORS ACROSS THE NATION. CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I think in the end this thing wraps up pretty tight and and stays in closer to the coast. Snow for all but some taint in the usual places SE. It's below zero here again this AM, another cold/snowy Winter in New England. Have fun today guys, I'll sacrifice something in the name of Ullr. White Christmas for all. Good thing you're going to your 2k site.....much warmer on the hilltops. 14.1 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Ahem!!! You!!! What is your 1st name? And who were you on irc?...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Shout out to Yaakov in Jerusalem reading our thread catching some wx at the last minutes (hours) as Shabbat looms 7 hours earlier than here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Albany is holding a small weenie carrot: WE WILL CONTINUE A THREAT FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DUE TO THE BROAD DEFORMATION ZONE TO SYSTEM. THE OUT TO SEA TRACK IS FAVORED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE...BECAUSE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TURNS NEGATIVE AND CAPTURES THE SFC LOW TOO LATE. A FASTER CAPTURING OF THE SFC CYCLONE AND CLOSING IT OFF CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE WOULD CHANGE THE IMPACT QUITE A BIT. THE RIDGE ALSO NEEDS TO AMPLIFY QUICKLY DOWN STREAM OF THE CYCLONE. THE HPC GUIDANCE FAVORS LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SUN-SUN NIGHT WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. WE WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO...JUST IN CASE THE TRACK SHIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doug1991 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Albany is holding a small weenie carrot: WE WILL CONTINUE A THREAT FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DUE TO THE BROAD DEFORMATION ZONE TO SYSTEM. THE OUT TO SEA TRACK IS FAVORED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE...BECAUSE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TURNS NEGATIVE AND CAPTURES THE SFC LOW TOO LATE. A FASTER CAPTURING OF THE SFC CYCLONE AND CLOSING IT OFF CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE WOULD CHANGE THE IMPACT QUITE A BIT. THE RIDGE ALSO NEEDS TO AMPLIFY QUICKLY DOWN STREAM OF THE CYCLONE. THE HPC GUIDANCE FAVORS LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SUN-SUN NIGHT WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. WE WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO...JUST IN CASE THE TRACK SHIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STAY TUNED. I would love to see a small shift west. Mike, What do you think about our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 You!!! What is your 1st name? And who were you on irc?...lol Sorry. Didn't catch the irc bit(what's that?) I thought you were talking who's closest to the potential storm. Blair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I find it very interesting that all the models either being inside or outside the benchmark with the low track have a hook or retro feature and that has pretty much held steadfast throughout all these runs, Its going to depend how far north when this all happens but it has been pretty consistent with showing somebody in the NE benefiting from this, So i don't think this is over for anyone....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Albany is holding a small weenie carrot: Mike if we prepare for partly cloudy and end up squeezing out a few inches than we'll have no chance for disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I would love to see a small shift west. Mike, What do you think about our area? I think we'll end with a White Christmas. But the way we get there will be by smaller steps, not the huge dump many of us were hoping for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 local tv mets got my area right on the near miss line i call it .maybe a inch or 2 i guess its better then nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.