ski MRG Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Keep an eye on Ray. Seriously. Woke up at 1am or so and decided I'd try to log on for the 657th time and hey it worked. I was just in time to see Ray blow a gasket. I don't think anyone is out of the game, Model Mayhem. Just have to wait and see as tough as that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Oh, they seem abnormally close to the coast lol. I thought the original graphic was about how far above or below normal temps the SST was lol. The La Nina is covering like half the earth! I wish we could just destroy the Pacific in a vast particle/antiparticle explosion and end La Nina forever Yeah the Pacific is absolutely frigid right now lol...that's some crazy cold anomalies well west of the dateline. On another note check out those SST's around the coast of Greenland! I wonder what type of role this has played in the incredible -NAO we have been observing lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Awesome--an instant classic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Even if this doesn't work out for everyone by mid-week everyone has at least something on the ground with the inverted trough setup for Wednesday...basically from late Sunday-Thursday everyday will feature periods and rounds of snow showers with snow heavy at times. I think the problem a lot of folks have is that they want a KU or nothing at all. Sure that would be great to get a KU, but to me and I've said this a hundred times..any snow is good snow. As of right now all the models have SNE getting anywhere from about 4-8 inches of snow over the course of a few days ..and they all do it in arious ways. Nothing wrong with 4-8 inches of snow..considering most of the folks from ORH haven't seen any snow in almost a year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well certainly not what I expected to wake up to. Still not bad though. We get snow either way all the way back into ENY state. Maybe not like what we thought yesterday, but at least a white Christmas for everyone That statement comes from the rosiest of rose-colored glasses (what the hell doest that mean, anyway?) I have encountered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yeah the Pacific is absolutely frigid right now lol...that's some crazy cold anomalies well west of the dateline. On another note check out those SST's around the coast of Greenland! I wonder what type of role this has played in the incredible -NAO we have been observing lately. Yup, this has really buried most of europe in snow all month. Have you been reading the euro thread? It's outrageous-- theyre about to get two more big snow storms just a few days apart. London probably looks like Iceland right now lol. It looks like the Gulf Stream is going straight up to Greenland, instead of Western Europe, where the flow is coming right down from the Arctic. Massive clockwise flow in the North Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 So much for the vaunted Euro and its ensembles..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I think the problem a lot of folks have is that they want a KU or nothing at all. Sure that would be great to get a KU, but to me and I've said this a hundred times..any snow is good snow. As of right now all the models have SNE getting anywhere from about 4-8 inches of snow over the course of a few days ..and they all do it in arious ways. Nothing wrong with 4-8 inches of snow..considering most of the folks from ORH haven't seen any snow in almost a year I totally agree, there is more to winter and snow than just KU storms...if you go into winter and go into every event looking for or expecting a KU storm you're not really going to end up happy the majority of the time. Just take what is offered to you and be happy with it. KU events don't happen all that often really. That would be like me going into every convective event hoping for a 5/31/98 type event...if I did that I would never, ever be happy. I just take whatever I can get no matter how small. This is why I always enjoy every event we get. This week looks pretty cool from a weather standpoint, we should get some snow and it's going to happen in a variety of ways...this really makes me appreciate weather more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Phil will like what he sees. I certainly do. It's rare that we get the "jackpot" out here. Still a waiting game. I remember a couple in 2002-2003 that got you pretty good. EArly season too iirc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Ridiculous. I've never ever seen such model swings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 BOX says we all snow (well maybe the coast has issues at some point) so who cares if it's not a KU? FIRST ROUND OF QPF ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL CYCLOGENESIS LATE SUN INTO MON AND THEN A SECOND ROUND OF QPF TUE AND WED AS OFFSHORE LOW OCCLUDES AND WARM AIR ALOFT WRAPS CYCLONICALLY BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND IN THE FORM OF COMMA HEAD/TROWAL SNOWS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A LONG DURATION OF OCCASIONAL SNOW /POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST/ TUE AND WED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I think the problem a lot of folks have is that they want a KU or nothing at all. Sure that would be great to get a KU, but to me and I've said this a hundred times..any snow is good snow. As of right now all the models have SNE getting anywhere from about 4-8 inches of snow over the course of a few days ..and they all do it in arious ways. Nothing wrong with 4-8 inches of snow..considering most of the folks from ORH haven't seen any snow in almost a year Well, I'm already locked in for a White Christmas here but more snow is always better. I just think it's funny how people get suckered by one model run be it good or bad. With little or no continuity you can't put much stock in anything right now. All that we really know is something is likely to pop along the East coast in 48-60 hours from now. If I had to bet I'd bet on evrybody getting a decent thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I totally agree, there is more to winter and snow than just KU storms...if you go into winter and go into every event looking for or expecting a KU storm you're not really going to end up happy the majority of the time. Just take what is offered to you and be happy with it. KU events don't happen all that often really. That would be like me going into every convective event hoping for a 5/31/98 type event...if I did that I would never, ever be happy. I just take whatever I can get no matter how small. This is why I always enjoy every event we get. This week looks pretty cool from a weather standpoint, we should get some snow and it's going to happen in a variety of ways...this really makes me appreciate weather more. Speaking of which, last severe wx season really spoiled us lol. That was pretty incredible. If only this winter could be just as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yeah, but that was before the 0z/6z schitshow. By including 0" as the starting point in group A, you've got a guaranteed lock on your call. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yup, this has really buried most of europe in snow all month. Have you been reading the euro thread? It's outrageous-- theyre about to get two more big snow storms just a few days apart. London probably looks like Iceland right now lol. I haven't been reading it but have heard some things...they are just going through an incredible stretch of storms over there. I always thought though that the -NAO lead to weaker storm systems crossing the Atlantic and Europe was on the drier side of things with the bulk of the precip into the Mediterranean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Ridiculous. I've never ever seen such model swings. It's like a box of chocolates, every model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Speaking of which, last severe wx season really spoiled us lol. That was pretty incredible. If only this winter could be just as much. We had a couple of pretty cool stretches last season of severe wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I remember a couple in 2002-2003 that got you pretty good. EArly season too iirc. Yup. 2005 treated us right also. My house was one of the few with a generator to watch the Pats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Are people really that crestfallen that instead of getting 2 feet they might only get 4-8 inches? I mean WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I don't think it's time to panic or worry at all. Things certainly not as great as 12z yesterday..but there is plenty of time and reason for this to come back to the big dog it had yesterday. REgardless..it looks like it snows from Sunday -Wednesday at various intensities. I'm actually not bummed or upset at all. We'll all have a nice snowcover for the holidays..if a KU isn't meant to be so be it That's the spirit, Kevin. I don't think we'll see the big dog scenario. But, given how horribly the models have been wrt this system, I'll be open to the possiiblities as remote as they may be ("you can have my snow shovel when you pull it from my dead, frozen fingers"). Maybe that'll be the slogan of the NWA--the National Weenies Association. We can become a lobbying group to promote funding to come up with better weather models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yup. 2005 treated us right also. My house was one of the few with a generator to watch the Pats. 2004-05 was a wonderful snow season for the Cape-- around 100 inches, which is probably like 4x normal. BTW didnt you guys have this massive OES event back in 2003-04 and another one back in the nineties, each of which dropped like 2 feet of snow? That must have been incredible to see, especially with how localized those can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Man is this gonna be a long day of model watching ..Several will die..hopefully we don't lose too many folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I don't think it's time to panic or worry at all. Things certainly not as great as 12z yesterday..but there is plenty of time and reason for this to come back to the big dog it had yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Good morning friends. An excellent decision going to bed before the Euro. As I had stated, no upside...only amped up excitement or annoyance. Seeing it flip like 200+ miles does not make me confident in any solution at this point. However, yesterday I discounted the srefs signal for a major eastward shift at 0Z. Guess what: We have the opposite signal now. So nothing will surprise me at 12Z. In any case, the entire 0Z/17 suite gives decent measurable snow and many with warning criteria. And no warmth in the picture at all it would seem. Keep (some) hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Good morning friends. An excellent decision going to bed before the Euro. As I had stated, no upside...only amped up excitement or annoyance. Seeing it flip like 200+ miles does not make me confident in any solution at this point. However, yesterday I discounted the srefs signal for a major eastward shift at 0Z. Guess what: We have the opposite signal now. So nothing will surprise me at 12Z. In any case, the entire 0Z/17 suite gives decent measurable snow and many with warning criteria. And no warmth in the picture at all it would seem. Keep (some) hope alive. Yeah this is exactly why I don't stay up for models at night..no reason to lose sleep over it..you either log on in the morning and are ecstatic or depressed..but at least you got a good nite's sleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Even the Euro Ens. shifted like 100 miles east. Let's hope this comes back west at 12z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Everyone pissed on the 6Z NAM but it also gives warning snows. DGEX which is its extension even in the early panels suggests pretty strong qpf. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/06zdgex.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Even the Euro Ens. shifted like 100 miles east. Let's hope this comes back west at 12z today. If they don't who cares? It's still gonna snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 06z GFS Ensm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I had a feeling this might happen...nothing would surprise me at 12z though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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