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2013 Southeast Tropical Storm Thread

jburns

By jburns,
in Southeastern States

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

Matthew East said on facebook he thinks the tornado threat for NC will be very limited west of 95.

Well yeah anything west of the track is low chance on the tornado chances but it doesnt mean they cant its just less likely, its typically the east side that has to worry about the tornados....as the track is basically up I-95 everyone west of that should have low tornado chances, I however live east of I-95.....

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Marion_NC_WX

Marion_NC_WX

Posted
Posted

The combination of Andrea, an incoming trough and a decayed frontal/moisture boundary is probably going to result in an expanding rain shield north of the track of Andrea. Even the folks up here at the Greer NWS office is worried about elevated rain totals (3-plus inches) for the eastern half of the CWA.

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Akeem the African Dream

Akeem the African Dream

Posted
Posted

 Until a tor hits your area and destroys your life.  Then it's a "omg, we didn't see it coming" deal right?  No offense, but a lame trop storm/remnants can even spin up something of your worst nightmares.

 

 

 

LOL.  Unless one lives in a trailer park this storm will not produce a destructive tornado.  Let's be serious here.  Sure there will be spin ups but they will be quick hitting and fairly weak.  This isn't a tornado outbreak in Oklahoma.

 

Maybe someone will lose a porch or pool enclosure on a home at worst. 

 

Yep. It's not a good idea to write these things off too early. There's quite a history of these early season "lame" tropical storms flooding large areas.  We shall see.

 

 

Flooding rains can happen in the summertime from seabreeze thunderstorms in Florida.  It will not be anything catastrophic and the places that usually flood from a heavy rainstorm will flood again in this.  This is a weak, fairly quick moving tropical storm. 

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DopplerWx

DopplerWx

Posted
Posted

LOL.  Unless one lives in a trailer park this storm will not produce a destructive tornado.  Let's be serious here.  Sure there will be spin ups but they will be quick hitting and fairly weak.  This isn't a tornado outbreak in Oklahoma.

 

Maybe someone will lose a porch or pool enclosure on a home at worst. 

 

 

 

Flooding rains can happen in the summertime from seabreeze thunderstorms in Florida.  It will not be anything catastrophic and the places that usually flood from a heavy rainstorm will flood again in this.  This is a weak, fairly quick moving tropical storm. 

Sorry Andrea won't be affecting Orlando, but the flooding rains it will bring to southern ga, sc and nc can be destructive.  The ground is already very saturated here in chas and im sure it is up thru eastern and central nc.  Nobody is expecting this to be a destructive hurricane, but the flooding is a very real concern.

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Akeem the African Dream

Akeem the African Dream

Posted
Posted

Sorry Andrea won't be affecting Orlando, but the flooding rains it will bring to southern ga, sc and nc can be destructive.  The ground is already very saturated here in chas and im sure it is up thru eastern and central nc.  Nobody is expecting this to be a destructive hurricane, but the flooding is a very real concern.

 

I never said Orlando specifically.  I said all of Florida. 

 

Anyway, it doesn't look as lame as yesterday but it is still going to be nothing special.   

 

The places that usually flood will flood again and we may even see someone with a destroyed mobile home.   However life goes on and no one but the people in the trailer park will remember the storm next week.

 

 

Locally:

 

Closing in on 3 inches here in my backyard in Orlando since yesterday afternoon.   Maybe we can get another 2-3 inches before it is done later tonight.

 

On to the next storm.............

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

11am forecast hasn't changed and the storm is expected to basically run up I-95 through the Carolinas. Discussion stated radar was looking better organized (stonger system?) but cloud tops had warmed (weaker system). So basically conflicting signals on if it can become a hurricane before landfall. 

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gtg947h

gtg947h

Posted
Posted

NHC's latest track has my house right in the center of the cone (the track line is within a mile)... and yes, I know it's not exact.

 

It'll be interesting to see what happens, given that I already have a bit of flooding in the back yard...

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Sunny and Warm

Sunny and Warm

Posted
Posted

 

GFS has really trended west since 18z yesterday...

 

GFS 18z Wed

 
 
 
 
GFS 12z Thurs

... and yet the center just relocated further east.  I can see orographic lift providing some enhanced rainfall to inland areas, but the rain shield appears to be aligning along the coastal plain rather than in a Columbia/Charlotte axis.  We shall see I guess.  Maybe it is more likely that we see two maxima streaks of precip.

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calculus1

calculus1

Posted
Posted

... and yet the center just relocated further east.  I can see orographic lift providing some enhanced rainfall to inland areas, but the rain shield appears to be aligning along the coastal plain rather than in a Columbia/Charlotte axis.  We shall see I guess.  Maybe it is more likely that we see two maxima streaks of precip.

 

Yep, the ol' splitteroo!  Coastal plain and western Carolinas cash in while the Research Triangle Park region gets less.  I feel for you Cold Rain, but at least Brick will get his T-ball game in.  :whistle:

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1234snow

1234snow

Posted
Posted

Maybe the NAM wasn't too far off with its extreme west solutions with the extend of the rain band. Looking on the 12z GFS it seems like a strong vort max rounds the corner of the trough in the Mississippi Valley and tugs on Andrea causing her to make more of a westward track than previous runs. Just something new I noticed when looking at the GFS.

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

... and yet the center just relocated further east.  I can see orographic lift providing some enhanced rainfall to inland areas, but the rain shield appears to be aligning along the coastal plain rather than in a Columbia/Charlotte axis.  We shall see I guess.  Maybe it is more likely that we see two maxima streaks of precip.

 

I actually think it's going to be a frog-strangler in Columbia tonight.

 

 

Here's a snippet from the 11AM GSP disco...

 

"INTERESTINGLY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS TRENDING TOWARD A MORE INTENSE CYCLONE...DEEPENING IT TO 997 MB ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AS THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS UNDERWAY. A MORE INTENSE LOW WOULD SUGGEST A MORE WELL DEVELOPED DEFORMATION ZONE...ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ETC. AS A RESULT...THE ECMWF DEPICTS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP FALLING JUST LEFT OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK"

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

She is really scooting now and the center will be onshore in the next hr or so, pressure down to 994 at 2 pm with no change in winds. The track has her going up eastern NC just east of I-95. NHC has her in central SC at 8am Friday and on Cape Cod at 8 am Saturday so she will be hauling ass through here so that should limit rainfall amounts I would think.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Yep, the ol' splitteroo!  Coastal plain and western Carolinas cash in while the Research Triangle Park region gets less.  I feel for you Cold Rain, but at least Brick will get his T-ball game in.  :whistle:

I think we might do ok. I was playing golf earlier in Clayton and got through 16. On the 17th, I hit my worst shot of the day and landed in a bunker. Tried to hit a 3W out and of course left it in the bunker. Then the bottom fell out and we left. :)

But back OT, the radar is filling in, little by little, in the hole in SC. Hopefully, that will continue to fill in and propogate NNE.

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Sunny and Warm

Sunny and Warm

Posted
Posted

I've been gone and haven't looked at any of the 12z guidance but could Andrea be making a quick extra-tropical transition tonight? I still think we need to watch along, north and northwest of the track and how that rainshield may expand once it goes extra-tropical.

I think you're already seeing some transition.  Low pressure is down to 991mb with no earthly reason tropically for it to do so.  I can only think that it is interacting baroclinically, which would begin to pull the rain shield to the left of the track.  The original view of the models suggested that the transition would occur at the Carolina latitude.  It appears to be starting slightly early, so I guess the hills will do well.  Actually, everyone does well, but you know what I mean.

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