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2013 Southeast Tropical Storm Thread

jburns

By jburns,
in Southeastern States

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

Even though we don't have huge model variation, tonight's global and hurricane model runs with the RECON data plugged in should help to narrow down a forecast track.

 

Yeah, I wouldn't mind the rain by any means.  I just don't want to deal with the TORS here in my hometown like Beryl did in 1994 taking that GA track.

 

If this is upgraded at 5pm, please change the title to reflect so please? 

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

Gonna be Andrea soon 

 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION ON THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST-
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
FINDING...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL INITIATE ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

 

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=TBW&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

Gonna be Andrea soon 

 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

530 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION ON THE LOW PRESSURE AREA

IN THE GULF OF MEXICO

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A

WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST-

CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS

FINDING...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL INITIATE ADVISORIES ON

TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A

HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE

DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

 

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=TBW&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

 

Thank you guys very much!  Do I need to request a mod to change the title of the thread or will it happen organically?

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

Yeah, when I go to edit it, I have no option to change the actual title.

Click on edit at the bottom of the OP, then click on use full editor you are then be able to change title 

 

TS watch up for SE Coast all the way up to the southern half of NC coast, The NHC  keeps it a 40 mph TS but also keep the track way east with it basically crossing right over eastern NC. On the current track the "center" will pass 10-15 miles east of me. I guess if it holds up I might take trip down to Swanquarter....

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

Click on edit at the bottom of the OP, then click on use full editor you are then be able to change title 

 

TS watch up for SE Coast all the way up to the southern half of NC coast, The NHC  keeps it a 40 mph TS but also keep the track way east with it basically crossing right over eastern NC. On the current track the "center" will pass 10-15 miles east of me. I guess if it holds up I might take trip down to Swanquarter....

 

Thank you very much.  Should have thought about doing that, lol.

 

I think their track will definitely verify in that cone.  The NAM is too far west IMO.  This NHC graphic lines up well with the GFS ensembles from 12z with a little late error room on the Atlantic side.

 

Interesting they want to keep it a storm all the way though.

 

215509_W5_NL_sm.gif

 

Keep in mind, the cone above is where the CENTER of the storm could track, not the impacts of TORS and floods.  So many people are still in play possibly.  If some how, it takes the outter west side my area is screwed (in a bad way) tor wise.  We shall see.

 

Buckeye, we may have some problems if that happens. ;/

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jburns

jburns

Posted
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Posted

625 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

...TROPICAL STORM ANDREA DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
INLAND PENDER...COASTAL PENDER...INLAND NEW HANOVER...COASTAL NEW
HANOVER...INLAND BRUNSWICK...COASTAL BRUNSWICK...INLAND HORRY...
COASTAL HORRY...INLAND GEORGETOWN AND COASTAL GEORGETOWN.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED
AREAS.

ALL PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREAS SHOULD REVIEW THEIR PREPAREDNESS
PLAN AND BE READY TO IMPLEMENT IT SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED FOR
THEIR AREA.

IN ORDER TO MAKE THE BEST DECISIONS...BE SURE THAT YOU UNDERSTAND
THE TERMINOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE
EVENTS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 6 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST. THIS WAS ABOUT 810
MILES SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NC...OR ABOUT 740 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MYRTLE BEACH SC. STORM MOTION WAS NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 40 MPH.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Abandoned at birth.

 

 I really think that this thread's feelings have been deeply hurt :cry:  :cry:

Personally, I haven't felt this hurt since rainstorm was banned. Yes, I have a lot of empathy for both great posters'  as well as threads' feelings. I've always been that way for some reason.

 

Aside: Dunwoody is getting hit hard with thunderstorms!

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

Abandoned at birth.

 I feel for you man!!  This has been your baby since Dec.  Well, as far as I'm concerned you brought the rain!!!  That's two rain power threads you started and I think your mojo is established.  Well, if I actually get some rain....which I haven't yet...but I hope to.  T

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jburns

jburns

Posted
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Posted

I feel for you man!!  This has been your baby since Dec.  Well, as far as I'm concerned you brought the rain!!!  That's two rain power threads you started and I think your mojo is established.  Well, if I actually get some rain....which I haven't yet...but I hope to.  T

Yes. For over 5 months the title of this thread was 'Waiting for Andrea". Some slick talking fellers tricked me into changing it to a general tropical thread.

 

Cant we just change the title to the Southeast US Tropical thread

Wilkes is gone. He created every thread last year for the separate storms. This year we can just keep one big thread for to discuss all storms, unless you want to create one for every storm.

I think a big thread is the way to go unless there is a storm that is a legitimate threat to the region or has otherwise historic implications. No need for a separate thread for each tropical entity. Just my two cents.

Now, when the action starts, those slick talking fellers are nowhere to be found. Oh wait. I think some of them are in the other thread.

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jburns

jburns

Posted
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Posted

Uh, Burns....does this mean I don't get a trip to Switzerland?  You being kicked aside, an' all?  T

 

The trip is definitely in danger. You still might be eligible for second prize.  An August weekend in Waycross.(may God have mercy on your soul)

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
Posted

Andrea's convection is currently displaced well to the east of the center. Unless it changes I could see most of the heaviest rainfall remaining offshore of GA, SC, and NC. The fact that a juicy tropical system is interacting with a frontal boundary should pop off plenty of storms but due to it have a decent forward motion and the displaced convection I could see this as a bullet getting dodged wrt flooding rains. The winds should be a non factor for everyone inland as well.

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