SnowNiner Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Post from HM (Met Poster) on the MJO - "Well, I will look more into things later today and get back to you but I think we do orbit around phase 8-1-2 after the looping is over. Even if it is less amplified, I do think a legitimate pulse goes through there and affects the pattern. The orbiting phase 6-7 convection and Mid Latitude pattern will ultimately force the convection east and then that will begin to feedback on the pattern as it relaxes from its amplified state. A classic +PNA / -NAO pattern would then be able to setup, esp. if the vortex breaks down entirely." Man, that would be money. I like the sound of "orbiting" around those phases say, oh, all of February. Weren't the MJO models showing a 8-1-2 phase a few days ago? Admittedly I understand very little about them but it seems they could trend back toward what HM is discussing in the next 2 weeks couldn't they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Man, that would be money. I like the sound of "orbiting" around those phases say, oh, all of February. Weren't the MJO models showing a 8-1-2 phase a few days ago? Admittedly I understand very little about them but it seems they could trend back toward what HM is discussing in the next 2 weeks couldn't they? The MJO phase plots have been showing the signal taking a 4-5-6-7 progression through the end of the forecast cycle (around Jan 21)...the latest Euro Ens MJO forecast has it weakening in phase 7, but that's way out there. This is the first time this winter that we've had any sizable amplitude with the MJO signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 here comes the TORCH!!! WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE low 70's for many in the SE. EURO, and GFS to some degree look HORRIBLE in the short, mid and long ranges.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 here comes the TORCH!!! WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE low 70's for many in the SE. EURO, and GFS to some degree look HORRIBLE in the short, mid and long ranges.... agreed on the short and medium... and OF COURSE we should buy into the long range Delta, all this torch talk is fun and games until the ultimate super-volcano erupts in February and it's pyroclastic flows of ash block out the turning our normal summer into a ... of course the resulting famine and death are " mmmmkay" - Mr. Garrison until then, I hope all enjoy the 588decometer southeast ridge of and destruction brought to you by GaWx and the 3-5° magnetic pole shift toward Russia... hay Mr. Bob, do the Euro Weeklies indicate a faster motion of SUCK in terms of true magnetic north moving away from us toward Russia? presumably, you now have a look similar to this after reading the above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 agreed on the short and medium... and OF COURSE we should buy into the long range Delta, all this torch talk is fun and games until the ultimate super-volcano erupts in February and it's pyroclastic flows of ash block out the turning our normal summer into a ... of course the resulting famine and death are " mmmmkay" - Mr. Garrison until then, I hope all enjoy the 588decometer southeast ridge of and destruction brought to you by GaWx and the 3-5° magnetic pole shift toward Russia... hay Mr. Bob, do the Euro Weeklies indicate a faster motion of SUCK in terms of true magnetic north moving away from us toward Russia? presumably, you now have a look similar to this after reading the above It's difficult to know what this "warm up" really packs with so much super excited love for hyperbole injected: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Never bet against Don Sutherland. No doubt! Glad to see Don taking time off his acting career to throw the weenies a bone from time to time. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Seriously, we have been hearing since the beginning of December about how things are looking up for this winter and things are good, but nothing to show for it. It's really hard to see how someone could be optimistic about the end of the month when it's so far away. Maybe the end of the month will be good. But right now it's more grasping at straws than being optimistic and if it does turn out to be good, it's more luck than anything. If you keep saying it looks good then you're bound to get it right sometime. I agree when the end of the month gets here we'll be saying the middle of Feb. then the end of Feb. and then before you know it we'll run out of time and spring will be upon us. Oh Well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Re: Brand new Euro weeklies and what they show for the SE US Folks, Good news considering how up and down they've been recently. The brand new Euro weeklies are mostly still good for weeks 3 and 4/pretty similar to last Thursday's 3 and 4. There is still a +PNA and the accompanying below normal temp.'s for the SE US for both weeks. The Greenland block and -AO are still there. The precip. is still near normal for week #4, which is quite good for a +PNA, which is often cold and dry. Week #3's precip. is a bit below normal vs. the near normal in the Thursday release. So, slight bad news there, but overall this was a good release and should result in a collective loud sigh of release from the SE members. Note: today's weeks 3 and 4 are the same exact periods as what the Thursday weeklies had, 1/21-2/3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 here comes the TORCH!!! WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE low 70's for many in the SE. EURO, and GFS to some degree look HORRIBLE in the short, mid and long ranges.... If you like winter weather then YES the models look bad in the short and mid ranges but NOT in the long range. Of course, you can take the long range solutions with a grain of salt. Anyway, the long ranges were showing this warm up a couple of weeks ago and they will be right. We ALL know the warm weather will be around for a week, if not more. Actually, warm up (60s and 70s) are not uncommon in the SE. I know people get tired of hearing "it's going to be cold (insert your time here)." It can be frustrating to "hurry up and wait" esp after last year but patience is needed. We have a long way to go and many will be happy by the end of the winter season..... I plan to break out the golf clubs and get some early season swings in to shake off the rust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2013 Author Share Posted January 7, 2013 ^ Yay! Thanks for posting, Larry. Glad I was wrong. Will be even gladder when weeks three and four get here and it ends up exactly that way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Re: Brand new Euro weeklies and what they show for the SE US Folks, Good news considering how up and down they've been recently. The brand new Euro weeklies are mostly still good for weeks 3 and 4/pretty similar to last Thursday's 3 and 4. There is still a +PNA and the accompanying below normal temp.'s for the SE US for both weeks. The Greenland block and -AO are still there. The precip. is still near normal for week #4, which is quite good for a +PNA, which is often cold and dry. Week #3's precip. is a bit below normal vs. the near normal in the Thursday release. So, slight bad news there, but overall this was a good release and should result in a collective loud sigh of release from the SE members. Note: today's weeks 3 and 4 are the same exact periods as what the Thursday weeklies had. Thanks for the update Larry. I thought a +PNA meant more storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Thanks for the update Larry. I thought a +PNA meant more storms? YW. A lot of times a strong +PNA is fairly dry for much of the SE US due to cold NW 500 mb flow dominating. What is better is for the trough axis to be ~500 miles west of our area during part of the time when it is cold to allow for WSW 500 mb flow/moisture/split flow to allow moisture to mix with the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 YW. A lot of times a strong +PNA is dry due to cold NW 500 mb flow dominating. What we need is for the trough axis to be ~500 miles west of our area during part of the time when it is cold to allow for WSW 500 mb flow/moisture/split flow. Ok. I appreciate the explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Watching the SE ridge on the Operational is like a brick wall that finally gets knocked down around the 17th. The GFS keeps showing a storm around that time. Yep, 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 If you like winter weather then YES the models look bad in the short and mid ranges but NOT in the long range. Of course, you can take the long range solutions with a grain of salt. Anyway, the long ranges were showing this warm up a couple of weeks ago and they will be right. We ALL know the warm weather will be around for a week, if not more. Actually, warm up (60s and 70s) are not uncommon in the SE. I know people get tired of hearing "it's going to be cold (insert your time here)." It can be frustrating to "hurry up and wait" esp after last year but patience is needed. We have a long way to go and many will be happy by the end of the winter season..... I plan to break out the golf clubs and get some early season swings in to shake off the rust. ya, I should edit that to say its back in forth on the LR, but my thing is, we just keep pushing back the cold threat over and over. I know that will certainly not always be the case, but for now I think it is. I like the idea of breaking out the golf clubs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 SSW underway. There's usually a 2-3 week lag with these events if things can propagate so we'll see. The splitting PV's can also drive the MJO,cooling the troposphere/strat in the tropics,favoring convection that hopefully can get to the dateline at least. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2013 Author Share Posted January 7, 2013 When you get some time, check out the 18Z GFS, starting around 240 or so. One of the best LR runs I've seen in a long time. Doesn't mean a hill of beans since I'm sure it won't verify, but man, it's a fun one to look at, if you enjoy LR cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 When you get some time, check out the 18Z GFS, starting around 240 or so. One of the best LR runs I've seen in a long time. Doesn't mean a hill of beans since I'm sure it won't verify, but man, it's a fun one to look at, if you enjoy LR cold. Yeah, no doubt! It sure looked good....we'll just have to wait and see how well it verifies, if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 When you get some time, check out the 18Z GFS, starting around 240 or so. One of the best LR runs I've seen in a long time. Doesn't mean a hill of beans since I'm sure it won't verify, but man, it's a fun one to look at, if you enjoy LR cold. Yeah I know all usual caveats apply to the GFS but the 18z Ensemble mean is encouraging as well as it seems to beat back the SE ridge by then also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2013 Author Share Posted January 8, 2013 Yup. And now we're off and rolling! We got us some CFS, some Euro Weelkies, and some 18Z GFS on board. How can we possibly not cash in with this rock solid forecasting lot behind us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 A recipe for awesomeness Thanks for posting the weekly update Larry!! Yup. And now we're off and rolling! We got us some CFS, some Euro Weelkies, and some 18Z GFS on board. How can we possibly not cash in with this rock solid forecasting lot behind us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 We continue to have occasional model runs and ensembles that suggest we are heading toward a much better time for possible snow/ice in the southeast. Yes we have had false starts the last two years. Yes we will have to combat the SE ridge. Yes this pattern has been resilient in keeping snow and ice out of the southeast. Yes there are a LOT of cliff divers. No, I am not one of them. I continue to think Jan 20th and beyond will provide opportunities for many of us in the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 When you get some time, check out the 18Z GFS, starting around 240 or so. One of the best LR runs I've seen in a long time. Doesn't mean a hill of beans since I'm sure it won't verify, but man, it's a fun one to look at, if you enjoy LR cold. Past truncation and a short lived cool snap at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 The cold we are looking for will finally arrive in April as upper 40's and a miserable cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 The cold we are looking for will finally arrive in April as upper 40's and a miserable cold rain. April 21st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Never bet against Don Sutherland. I cannot agree more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Yup. And now we're off and rolling! We got us some CFS, some Euro Weelkies, and some 18Z GFS on board. How can we possibly not cash in with this rock solid forecasting lot behind us? ***cough...cough**** cough-PAC-cough**** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2013 Author Share Posted January 8, 2013 ***cough...cough**** cough-PAC-cough**** Here's some medicine for that cough: Get well soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Here's some medicine for that cough: 18zgfs500mbHGHTNA240.gif Get well soon! I sure hope that syrup kicks in. Every time I think I'm getting better, it turns out that those model-biotics were the incorrect dose and couldn't get a handle on my PACalysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2013 Author Share Posted January 8, 2013 I sure hope that syrup kicks in. Every time I think I'm getting better, it turns out that those model-biotics were the incorrect dose and couldn't get a handle on my PACalysis. Oh it will, don't worry. Just give it about 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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