**BANTER THREAD** Rolling into active period...wintry potential increasing, so are toaster sales

[mattb65]

I think scooter and clan should head to will's house to hang out for this storm before he completely melts down. His posts show increasing seismic activity and a meltdown watch has been issued which may shortly have to be upgraded to a meltdown warning.

Hope this overachieves in E MA, I'll be in NJ so I'll report my obs since this area is also progged to be on the mixing edge, and if I overachieve here hopefully that'll translate east.

[forkyfork]

"tickle" is not a noun

[CoastalWx]

I think scooter and clan should head to will's house to hang out for this storm before he completely melts down. His posts show increasing seismic activity and a meltdown watch has been issued which may shortly have to be upgraded to a meltdown warning.

Hope this overachieves in E MA, I'll be in NJ so I'll report my obs since this area is also progged to be on the mixing edge, and if I overachieve here hopefully that'll translate east.

LOL, I'm good man.

[Allsnow]

Little rock Arkansas 10 inches of snow this season lol

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Big salty ball sucking winter.

I really do think things are changing for the better. I don't think it lasts much beyond the first 10 days of January...but we're going to have a legitimate shot for awhile. Is what it is. These winters suck for 42n south unless you're inland.

[weathafella]

Great OP Euro run tonight! Big snow event over the weekend followed by subfreezing for the foreseeable future with no relaxation appreciably in the pattern for at least out 10 days. Not bad!

[Damage In Tolland]

2" of slush before it poured....NAM nailed it.

The NAM was terrible. it gave you 0 snow. and wire to wire rain

[40/70 Benchmark]

If thr 12z EURO doesn't give me at least 6", then I'm done until 2013.....peace the fu** out, 2012.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The NAM was terrible. it gave you 0 snow. and wire to wire rain

Ok....it was off by 2"...EURO by 8"

Grab the claculator....

[Bostonseminole]

The NAM was terrible. it gave you 0 snow. and wire to wire rain

NAM was pretty good for me.. I got 1/4" pretty much what the NAM had, it did pretty bad down south for sure, but was good with the BL warmth in this area.

[Damage In Tolland]

Ok....i was off by 2"...EURO by 8"

Grab the claculator....

When a NWS office full of good mets totally tosses a model...there's a reason. Will has said it, Scooter said it. Something is wrong with the NAM schemes now and it should not be used for anything.

[ctsnowstorm628]

Ok....it was off by 2"...EURO by 8"

Grab the claculator....

Many realized this. I had 2-5" for you because I KNEW that CF meant business. In a strong setup like this the geostrophic flow is killer along east facing coastlines and it can intrude inland quite far.

But yeah euro was too cold in many locations, but it wasn't the most amped with this last system.

[40/70 Benchmark]

When a NWS office full of good mets totally tosses a model...there's a reason. Will has said it, Scooter said it. Something is wrong with the NAM schemes now and it should not be used for anything.

Look, the EURO gave me a major snow event, and the NAM rain...the latter had the better idea.

Pardon me for being too frustrated to give a flying flake which verified better with the track of the ULL over upstate Tennessee.

[SnowMan]

Many realized this. I had 2-5" for you because I KNEW that CF meant business. In a strong setup like this the geostrophic flow is killer along east facing coastlines and it can intrude inland quite far.

But yeah euro was too cold in many locations, but it wasn't the most amped with this last system.

Noob question - what's the difference between geostrophic flow and ageostrophic flow?

[40/70 Benchmark]

When a NWS office full of good mets totally tosses a model...there's a reason. Will has said it, Scooter said it. Something is wrong with the NAM schemes now and it should not be used for anything.

The same ones of predicted 20" just west of Concord?

Some of us had better forecasts than others.

[Damage In Tolland]

Look, the EURO gave me a major snow event, and the NAM rain...the latter had the better idea.

Pardon me for being too frustrated to give a flying flake which verified better with the track of the ULL over upstate Tennessee.

We're talking about temperature profiles thruout the atmosphere..not whether your BY got 2 inches or 8 inches. If you compared the 2 models the Euro won by 5 touchdowns

[OSUmetstud]

The NAM in general, was horrible. I would have ended up with 20" if it were correct. It was way too slow and way too amped. It had zr and ip here 48 hours ago...then held the deformation zone over WNY much longer than the other models and what ended up verifying. It was also way too warm just about everywhere.

It's a joke of a model.

[OSUmetstud]

The same ones of predicted 20" just west of Concord?

Some of us had better forecasts than others.

i think it's time to take a break if this storm doesn't work out for you.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Many realized this. I had 2-5" for you because I KNEW that CF meant business. In a strong setup like this the geostrophic flow is killer along east facing coastlines and it can intrude inland quite far.

But yeah euro was too cold in many locations, but it wasn't the most amped with this last system.

I originally had 2-5", but I capitulated to the EURO....done doing that.

You have to incorporate common sense, and not simply follow any one peice of guidance.

Shame on me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

i think it's time to take a break if this storm doesn't work out for you.

Agreed.

But I don't understand what is wrong with pointing out that the NAM had the better idea for my area...not everywhere, but here.

And yes...the NWS had a rough showing in some areas.

It's not bashing...they're human.

[ctsnowstorm628]

Noob question - what's the difference between geostrophic flow and ageostrophic flow?

Geostrophic is a theoretical wind that is created by balance between PGF and coriolis. It's parallel to isobaric surface. Usually it's different than the real wind because of sfc friction but over water it's easier to have it be the same as the real wind due to lessened sfc friction over water. Ageostrophic wind is the wind that attempts to balance out the flow to make it geostrophic.

[ctsnowstorm628]

I originally had 2-5", but I capitulated to the EURO....done doing that.

You have to incorporate common sense, and not simply follow any one peice of guidance.

Shame on me.

Forecasting and interpretation is an art and everybody on this board is still improving.

Eff it, lets hope foreign guidance is amped today.

[40/70 Benchmark]

NWS did a very good job for my area...kudos.

[OSUmetstud]

I originally had 2-5", but I capitulated to the EURO....done doing that.

You have to incorporate common sense, and not simply follow any one peice of guidance.

Shame on me.

a broken clock is right twice a day. I'm to the point where I don't think it's even worth looking at.

I just know how you get...you're close to full on piss mode.

[SnowMan]

Geostrophic is a theoretical wind that is created by balance between PGF and coriolis. It's parallel to isobaric surface. Usually it's different than the real wind because of sfc friction but over water it's easier to have it be the same as the real wind due to lessened sfc friction over water. Ageostrophic wind is the wind that attempts to balance out the flow to make it geostrophic.

Thanks. Found this link after reading what you referenced... http://www.aos.wisc.edu/~aalopez/aos101/wk11.html

[40/70 Benchmark]

a broken clock is right twice a day. I'm to the point where I don't think it's even worth looking at.

I just know how you get...you're close to full on piss mode.

The NAM sucks...I'm not saying it's a decent model, all I said was that it did a far better job forecasting the sensible weather for my locale in this particular event.

[Damage In Tolland]

Absolutely pouring dendrites now in Gray. Up until now it's been rather small flake stuff like 12/13/07. Wind is up so it may be hard to measure. We'll see.

NAM temps ftl again. Something has gone terribly wrong in that respect with that model this year. Have to investigate further.

Ooh

[40/70 Benchmark]

Forecasting and interpretation is an art and everybody on this board is still improving.

Eff it, lets hope foreign guidance is amped today.

Scooter is quietly having a very good season....he didn't like this last event near the coast, and never waivered.....doesn't like this one because the trough is too progressive.

Makes me nervous, but we'll see.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The NAM sucks...I'm not saying it's a decent model, all I said was that it did a far better job forecasting the sensible weather for my locale in this particular event.

Ooh

[ctsnowstorm628]

Scooter is quietly having a very good season....he didn't like this last event near the coast, and never waivered.....doesn't like this one because the trough is too progressive.

Makes me nervous, but we'll see.

I tend to agree this is a progressive pattern but it's possible for something more like scooter outlined yesterday.

I think the euro was overdone, but I think American guidance is too flat. I like the ukie last night, which was like 4-7" over southern SNE and 2-4" up by you.