CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 GEFS continue a weenie look for interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 You're the man! Thanks much... mods, feel free to clean up. I'm liking this signal more than any to date thus far this season. Though the PNA is primarily static leading up to, the flow is thus balanced and free react to the single teleconnector exertion from the NAO domain, which at that time finds its way down to a nice nadir. I realize the name H. Archembault was used in the other thread I started, so not intending to glaze over any eyes. But that was in deference to the PNA, which did not pan out according to the CEFs mean original computation some 10 days prior. That turned out to be a false signal. Barring that occurring with the NAO, this is also encapsulated in her science for correlation upon E N/A events. I would definitely take this one more serious than a punch line out of frustration - the NAO is falling and finds it's way down to a nadir just prior or during the 17th to 21st time span. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 that may be so bu the CMC has very little reliable ...less than the others, even for this time range in question. it looks NOTHING like it's 00z run. it's an unattended fire hose of a model beyond D4 or there abouts. Well I'm not going to argue with you about the utility of the CMC. But this run sure looks a lot similar to its previous run than it does to the GFS. And out past day 5 I don't expect tremendous run to run continuity. I'm just relaying small pieces to the puzzle. I did not mean to argue for or against a future scenario. At the very least I was hoping to see some kind of move towards the GFS in one aspect or another, and I didn't see it. So until I see the Euro, the GFS appears on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Well I'm not going to argue with you about the utility of the CMC. But this run sure looks a lot similar to its previous run than it does to the GFS. And out past day 5 I don't expect tremendous run to run continuity. I'm just relaying small pieces to the puzzle. I did not mean to argue for or against a future scenario. At the very least I was hoping to see some kind of move towards the GFS in one aspect or another, and I didn't see it. So until I see the Euro, the GFS appears on its own. I was also just letting you know, so consume the information as you will. I wouldn't be too hung up on any given run for that matter for this type of time range, though. I mean ... you're saying 'I won't this or that until x,y,z model shows it' - nah. Best thing to do is to recognize the pattern modes and/or modalities as a whole, and then see how the blend fits in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 GEFS continue a weenie look for interior. Pretty high mean QPF for 6 days out. Must be some high QPF members. And it is suggesting a decently long duration for precipitation. But there is still very little overlap between the range of individual GEFs members and any of the other models, so the camps are clearly "seeing" different things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Best thing to do is to recognize the pattern modes and/or modalities as a whole, and then see how the blend fits in. I get it. And I like the concept. But my concern has been for a long time that we might not be able to see the pattern modes or modalities out into the future any better than we can see specific synoptic solutions... because they are intrinsically linked. Sometimes only when we realize a suspected "signal" was false do we identify the nature of the pattern as being different than we previously thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I get it. And I like the concept. But my concern has been for a long time that we might not be able to see the pattern modes or modalities out into the future any better than we can see specific synoptic solutions... because they are intrinsically linked. Sometimes only when we realize a suspected "signal" was false do we identify the nature of the pattern as being different than we previously thought. Not quite though - the "daily" synoptic set up does not describe the background mode, certainly not if that mode is changing, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Hi,first off I'm in the wrong forum I know. I was wondering if somebody here could help. I just submitted to accuweather pro. Have been looking at the GFS for a couple years have a decent understanding of what the maps mean. Is there a site to learn more about how to read these ECM maps? And the model comes out at 1 pm correct, for some reason it's still on the 00z running? Thanks to whoever has an answer, and sorry for posting this I know it's off topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 The Euro doesn't look like the GFS. It lacks the preceeding shortwave north of NYS on day 5 and as a result the flow through the Lakes is out of the south instead of the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 The Euro doesn't look like the GFS. It lacks the preceeding shortwave north of NYS on day 5 and as a result the flow through the Lakes is out of the south instead of the west. Big rainstorm at 138. Takes the first piece of energy well nw of us. Second becomes a huge rain maker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Euro has a nice storm this weekend just to far west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Euro has a nice storm this weekend just to far west Apps runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Apps runner Very active like many have said. Just no cold air around. I really feel the lack of any cold air will punt december outside nne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Apps runner might be a good thing at the lead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Apps runner 2 of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2012 Author Share Posted December 10, 2012 If the Euro could link up that Greenland/Davis straight block with the ridging into Quebec then we'd be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Very active like many have said. Just no cold air around. I really feel the lack of any cold air will punt december outside nne. Most certainly a possibility, unfortunately. I'll take my chances though with some blocking to the north and by mid December climo can help even in a normal-ish temp regime. Also the euro has always been sort of amped for the weekend. It was the ensembles that showed potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Much rather the EC have that, than OTS. Especially where I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Not quite though - the "daily" synoptic set up does not describe the background mode, certainly not if that mode is changing, either. Of course not. But averaged over space and time it does. The "pattern mode" today does not dictate the weather next week. There is enough time between now and then for a new "pattern" to develop. That pattern could be described by the prevailing synoptic features during the interim. And the evolution of those features is only as clear as our model predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Much rather the EC have that, than OTS. Especially where I am. Yeah I think we are in the game for this one in NNE. I could see an apps runner or coastal plain track that slowly gets shunted east as it moves north. There does seem to be some blocking in that period so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2012 Author Share Posted December 10, 2012 The blocking is pretty impressive, so it is definitely worth watching. There will probably be a lot of nuances as well in how the s/w is ejected from the southwest US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 None of the GEFs members look like the Euro or CMC. It's an example of the limitations of ensemble modeling. A couple members have rain and warm (though not as bad as the Euro), but most threaten wintry precipitation with a miller B scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 None of the GEFs members look like the Euro or CMC. It's an example of the limitations of ensemble modeling. A couple members have rain and warm (though not as bad as the Euro), but most threaten wintry precipitation with a miller B scenario. Should probably just talk about today's rain then. Models don't seem too far apart on how the pattern as a whole evolves. No one is trying to pin down specifics yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Very active like many have said. Just no cold air around. I really feel the lack of any cold air will punt december outside nne. That is very possible might be a good thing at the lead Its in a good spot for now, Get this off the coast it could produce 2 of them Yeah, Jerry, The one right behind it does the same, If we can get some blocking and get these 2 underneath us we would be in business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Great post Ryan and Will. Meteorology not modeology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2012 Author Share Posted December 10, 2012 UKMET looks pretty blocked at 144h...the low heights northeast of New England are a lot more impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Of course not. But averaged over space and time it does. The "pattern mode" today does not dictate the weather next week. There is enough time between now and then for a new "pattern" to develop. That pattern could be described by the prevailing synoptic features during the interim. And the evolution of those features is only as clear as our model predictions. You had mentioned that the synoptics were intrinsically linked to the mode - and that's not necessarily true. It's all good - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 UKMET looks pretty blocked at 144h...the low heights northeast of New England are a lot more impressive. One thing I am noticing right off the bat is that the first of the two App runners is actually a huge east trend compared to the 00z - 1,000km or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I'm punting the Dec 16 potential, as well....but after that, its fair game. Maybe GC and cne can score on the 16th....but I'm looking beyond it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 UKMET looks pretty blocked at 144h...the low heights northeast of New England are a lot more impressive. After careful consideration over the years I've come to the conclusion that the UKMET isn't worth the kleenex I just blew my nose with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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