weathafella Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 A good cold rain is fine in November. Coastals folks, we're getting good ones this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 A good cold rain is fine in November. Coastals folks, we're getting good ones this year. So far we are. Next weeks system looks like another phase changer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 A good cold rain is fine in November. Coastals folks, we're getting good ones this year. I love the fact that we're getting coastals. That is just such a good sign going into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 I'll ride BOX bet you would Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 ECM OP was a lot more aggressive with the -NAO at D9-10 than the ensembles. Not too surprising I guess. Looks like getting it down to neutral just after Thanksgiving is a pretty safe bet at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Its nice to see the euro op close off quite a nor'easter for the third run in a row , leading to a tanking nao and arrival of the real cold air by day 10...but the ensembles did take a step back on that idea from where they trended yesterday at 12z. The euro op is probably too aggressive with things, particularly with bringng in the cold air by day 10. the ensembles do get the NAO to where it needs to be heading into the 11-15 day, but holds off on the real cold air until we get closer to Dec 1st.I would think that is a better idea, but we'll see. Three runs in a row on the op is nothing to sneeze at I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Models always seem like they want to bring in the colder air in to quickly and it ends up being delayed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Its nice to see the euro op close off quite a nor'easter for the third run in a row , leading to a tanking nao and arrival of the real cold air by day 10...but the ensembles did take a step back on that idea from where they trended yesterday at 12z. The euro op is probably too aggressive with things, particularly with bringng in the cold air by day 10. the ensembles do get the NAO to where it needs to be heading into the 11-15 day, but holds off on the real cold air until we get closer to Dec 1st.I would think that is a better idea, but we'll see. Three runs in a row on the op is nothing to sneeze at I suppose Probably part of that shuffle we spoke about the other day too. I'm holding out more until early December for anything notable, but that doesn't mean it can't come in a few days earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 To be fair GGEM and Euro seem pretty close on op runs but medium range is for Ens so right now OTS seems to be the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Also if you look at the H5 pattern and then look at temps in the lower levels, it isn't that chilly yet. Basically, just because the pattern is in place as modeled....doesn't mean the colder air is instantly there. It comes in stages. Perhaps the models adjust the lower levels as we get closer, but that is usually how it works. It comes in successive steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Probably part of that shuffle we spoke about the other day too. I'm holding out more until early December for anything notable, but that doesn't mean it can't come in a few days earlier. Yup no doubt about it, I could definitely see it coming in during the final week/days of novy.. I just think day 10/thanksgiving weekend is too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 I'll ride BOX i'd almost wish a horrible winter on us all if it just could guarantee you getting 37F rainstorms DJFMAMJ. and i'm familiar with 37F rainstorms...they suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Also if you look at the H5 pattern and then look at temps in the lower levels, it isn't that chilly yet. Basically, just because the pattern is in place as modeled....doesn't mean the colder air is instantly there. It comes in stages. Perhaps the models adjust the lower levels as we get closer, but that is usually how it works. It comes in successive steps. yeah that is definitely true also. i was looking at the 850s on the euro by the end of the run, which were the most aggressive/cold versus rest of the guidance...but even the surface temp depiction is not overly cold/below average with that air mass (taken verbatim) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Why the meanness Phil? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 yeah that is definitely true also. i was looking at the 850s on the euro by the end of the run, which were the most aggressive/cold versus rest of the guidance...but even the surface temp depiction is not overly cold/below average with that air mass (taken verbatim) Yeah maybe it does cool as we get closer, but just going by what I remember when we get these so called pattern changes. You can see on the ensembles how the colder air noted by the thicknesses gradually oozes SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 yeah that is definitely true also. i was looking at the 850s on the euro by the end of the run, which were the most aggressive/cold versus rest of the guidance...but even the surface temp depiction is not overly cold/below average with that air mass (taken verbatim) One thing that does stick out with the Euro Ens is that the biggest spread on 850 temps is south and east indicating at least some members agree with the Op on a faster deeper evolution. it all comes down to whether the OP is correct in closing off a potent 520ish ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 i'd almost wish a horrible winter on us all if it just could guarantee you getting 37F rainstorms DJFMAMJ. and i'm familiar with 37F rainstorms...they suck. LOL that was last winter, no need to repeat that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 good news is we are basically 2 weeks away from flipping the calendar to DEC. from that point forward snow events become much less fluky and reliant on the heavens aligning just right and instead more supported by climo for this part of the country. can also start to consider holding snow on the ground instead of just getting a couple of inches and basically being guaranteed it's gone in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 LOL that was last winter, no need to repeat that. i don't think we'll repeat last winter. i'm not sold on this being a great winter but it'll be an improvement. stats alone would basically say it won't happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 i don't think we'll repeat last winter. i'm not sold on this being a great winter but it'll be an improvement. stats alone would basically say it won't happen again. If we get Dec I am feeling good that we have a lot of fun this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 yeah that is definitely true also. i was looking at the 850s on the euro by the end of the run, which were the most aggressive/cold versus rest of the guidance...but even the surface temp depiction is not overly cold/below average with that air mass (taken verbatim) And it could be the smoothed out mean perhaps not quite getting the magnitude of the colder air too. A few things perhaps going on....but to be honest...I don't care about the surface temps as much as looking at the H5 pattern. If the pattern is favorable...that's good enough for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 If we get Dec I am feeling good that we have a lot of fun this year. i guess if someone was forcing me to make a call i'd go with something fairly close to climo, maybe a tick below. but that's only a bit more than just a wild guess really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 And it could be the smoothed out mean perhaps not quite getting the magnitude of the colder air too. A few things perhaps going on....but to be honest...I don't care about the surface temps as much as looking at the H5 pattern. If the pattern is favorable...that's good enough for me. Oh yeah with the ensembles I definitely agree scott. Though mind you I was referring to the euro op run at day 10 from last night in my previous post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Oh yeah with the ensembles I definitely agree scott. Though mind you I was referring to the euro op run at day 10 from last night in my previous post. Oh I was just continuing with the thought process by adding one more point and happened to quote your previous post, but agree with what you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 What was so offensive? Crushing his hopes and dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 44 and sunny, beautiful late fall day out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 i guess if someone was forcing me to make a call i'd go with something fairly close to climo, maybe a tick below. but that's only a bit more than just a wild guess really. I'm in the same boat wrt to seasonal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 OTS on this one IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 It's going to be close, I at least favor some rain/wind for ern and especially se areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 OTS on this one IMHO With no cold air, I can do without it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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