Typhoon Tip Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Heh, now the "GONAPS" is doing it, too - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Heh, now the "GONAPS" is doing it, too - Euro should be big at 12z today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Euro should be big at 12z today LOL, biggest run of our lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 12z ECMWF has Sandy/Tony or whatever just west of Guantanamo by 96 hours. System is already transitioning into a large RMW system with precip being throw into Florida. Will be ineteresting to see if the 12z ECM latches onto the "Halloween Hybrid". All the cool kids are doing it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Not that it's anything surprising but the NCEP model site hasn't been loading on my computer half of the day... I guess the GFS superstorm is too much for it to handle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Euro at 150 hour has it booking, brewing, and a battened down coast getting ready for the raking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Looks to me like the euro will run it up the coast offshore. Big wallop nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Euro has a 976 or 974 or so low over eastern PA at 192 hours. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Let's keep just the storm talk in Ryan's thread and separated from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 it could happen tomorrow Or the day after tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 This storm wraps up the NAO ridge so much, it may screw up the cold for the beginning of November..lol. It will cool off, but not sure of the magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 This storm wraps up the NAO ridge so much, it may screw up the cold for the beginning of November..lol. It will cool off, but not sure of the magnitude. Do you mean we end up with too much ridging and the cold being pushed to the other side of the globe? EDIT: To me, it looks as if the 12z ECM brings a decent cold shot with -4C 850s around NYC and -8C in the OH Valley. However, we are back to having a vortex over Alaska at the end of the run, so the real cold is starting to move back into the Arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 Do you mean we end up with too much ridging and the cold being pushed to the other side of the globe? EDIT: To me, it looks as if the 12z ECM brings a decent cold shot with -4C 850s around NYC and -8C in the OH Valley. However, we are back to having a vortex over Alaska at the end of the run, so the real cold is starting to move back into the Arctic. It means the cold may be directed more west and then southwest for now. The AK low does form, but it's oriented to give a little bit of a PNA ridge. What it does do, is allow Canada to warm up bit with Pacific flow. However, the -NAO and weak ridging in the west keep more NW flow here, so it's a cool pattern for us overall I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 It means the cold may be directed more west and then southwest for now. The AK low does form, but it's oriented to give a little bit of a PNA ridge. What it does do, is allow Canada to warm up bit with Pacific flow. However, the -NAO and weak ridging in the west keep more NW flow here, so it's a cool pattern for us overall I think. The low cuts pretty far west on the 12z ECM, and a lot of the other runs, so that would of course mean the cold air would be strongest behind the low towards the Ohio Valley. This would also fit the pattern since August where the most intense cold shots are occurring well to the west of New England and the Mid Atlantic over the Upper Lakes and Midwest. I wouldn't be surprised if this is yet another example of this phenomenon. At Day 10 on the 12z ECM, I also don't see a true -NAO...it's displaced south and thus is creating more of a Maritimes High, which is the opposite of what you see in the classic cold/snowy -NAO patterns. This looks like the type of pattern where the cold would moderate a bit more than it would if we had the block farther north atop Greenland: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 The low cuts pretty far west on the 12z ECM, and a lot of the other runs, so that would of course mean the cold air would be strongest behind the low towards the Ohio Valley. This would also fit the pattern since August where the most intense cold shots are occurring well to the west of New England and the Mid Atlantic over the Upper Lakes and Midwest. I wouldn't be surprised if this is yet another example of this phenomenon. At Day 10 on the 12z ECM, I also don't see a true -NAO...it's displaced south and thus is creating more of a Maritimes High, which is the opposite of what you see in the classic cold/snowy -NAO patterns. This looks like the type of pattern where the cold would moderate a bit more than it would if we had the block farther north atop Greenland: I'm going by the ensembles though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I'm going by the ensembles though. Can you post the link? Raleigh isn't working for me so I was using the OP. The 12z GFS ENS sort of confirm what I was saying, however. It's definitely a powerful block, but the block is positioned a bit south of Greenland. However, the block has a wonderful connection with a -AO, and the higher heights extend all the way back to Siberia, so we should see some colder air here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Beautiful omega block though. With that downstream ridging something is progged to go to town near the NEUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 Can you post the link? Raleigh isn't working for me so I was using the OP. Well I can't post the euro ensembles that I have, but you can see the same thing on the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 When is this pattern change and cold supposed to set in, right around Halloweenie.......looking at ens looks to me like ridging in the east as the one eyed pig has another return engagement. Mid Novie.......patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 When is this pattern change and cold supposed to set in, right around Halloweenie.......looking at ens looks to me like ridging in the east as the one eyed pig has another return engagement. Mid Novie.......patience. Well with this storm potentially flooding eastern Canada with Atlantic air, it may take a while, or not materialize as modeled earlier. It's all dependent of the low. If it's further east, that would allow for a potentially cooler start to November. This pattern would probably be ok in the winter, but you don't have much cold established this time of year unless you get a plunge from central Canada. It definitely cools off though, I think that part is a given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Well with this storm potentially flooding eastern Canada with Atlantic air, it may take a while, or not materialize as modeled earlier. It's all dependent of the low. If it's further east, that would allow for a potentially cooler start to November. This pattern would probably be ok in the winter, but you don't have much cold established this time of year unless you get a plunge from central Canada. It definitely cools off though, I think that part is a given. What about later, into Mid-Late NOV? Are we looking at a colder pattern then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 What about later, into Mid-Late NOV? Are we looking at a colder pattern then? I wish I knew. We'll have to see if the GOA low moves SW or will it stay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 This storm wraps up the NAO ridge so much, it may screw up the cold for the beginning of November..lol. It will cool off, but not sure of the magnitude. That is a legit concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 When is this pattern change and cold supposed to set in, right around Halloweenie.......looking at ens looks to me like ridging in the east as the one eyed pig has another return engagement. Mid Novie.......patience. Probably starts around 11/10 and is complete around 11/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 That is a legit concern I mean it's a pattern that would probably deliver from December on given that block, but the block is also a manifestation of whatever the heck forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Also, looks like the PNA may go negative into Mid-NOV, and the EPO positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I mean it's a pattern that would probably deliver from December on given that block, but the block is also a manifestation of whatever the heck forms. More of a concern is the reemergence of the GOA low and how long it hangs around before it retrogrades if at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 More of a concern is the reemergence of the GOA low and how long it hangs around before it retrogrades if at all There is a big block in NE Siberia which teleconnects to this low. This is also shown in the weeklies which at week 4 probably has one of the strongest signals I've ever seen. At week 4, it also tries to shift east. I think an H5 trough as oriented is ok for us since it does try to pump up Canadian ridging. But for me, it's sort of a risk to take and there is the chance that it takes on a rather hostile configuration in winter as the wavelengths change. As of now, it is sort of stationary and hinting at trying to redevelop southwest, but that is beyond 2 weeks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I think DT summed it up the best in his winter outlook, "everything right now hemispherically is in a state of flux", I would think this is pretty typical just prior to a pattern change. One thing is for sure, we are in a much better position right now then this time last year, where things go from here is still yet to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 What are the odds that Kevin gets suspended or 5 ppd before the first flakes fall this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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