Southeast Mid/Long Range Discussion I

[Carvers Gap]

Another:

http://www.cpc.ncep....sup814_temp.gif

Cool graphic. The only thing that gives me pause is Alaska being cold. Seems when Alaska is cold, we torch. My guess, only one of those two regions verify that cold.

[pcbjr]

Agreed.

Just wanted to put some more info out there {here}.

[CandymanColumbusGA]

The difference between models is downright hilarious right now beginning at about 4-5 days.....

You ain't kidding! The GFS is a little sharper with Tuesday shortwave, allowing a bit of moisture and rain to develop down here... Meanwhile, the Euro is much flatter and so "NO RAIN FOR YOU!" At least they both agree on a nice trough for the West Coast and a big ole ridge for the rest of the country with the NE seeing the cooler weather. (0Z Model runs..) Of course... Things have changed quite a bit from the 12Z run yesterday... Got to love forecasting pattern changes!

I've been wondering where the colder weather is going to invade the US and it seems like the West might win this time... Still a lot to be figured out though. You can't ignore the NAO going in the tank, but the Pacific isn't looking that good. We'll probably get a brief shot of cold air before we warm back up near normal.

[Wow]

You ain't kidding! The GFS is a little sharper with Tuesday shortwave, allowing a bit of moisture and rain to develop down here... Meanwhile, the Euro is much flatter and so "NO RAIN FOR YOU!" At least they both agree on a nice trough for the West Coast and a big ole ridge for the rest of the country with the NE seeing the cooler weather. (0Z Model runs..) Of course... Things have changed quite a bit from the 12Z run yesterday... Got to love forecasting pattern changes!

I've been wondering where the colder weather is going to invade the US and it seems like the West might win this time... Still a lot to be figured out though. You can't ignore the NAO going in the tank, but the Pacific isn't looking that good. We'll probably get a brief shot of cold air before we warm back up near normal.

West trough perhaps beyond Day 10 but otherwise the 50/50 low emerging will keep it at or below norm around here, while the trough out west will remain off shore.

[CandymanColumbusGA]

West trough perhaps beyond Day 10 but otherwise the 50/50 low emerging will keep it at or below norm around here, while the trough out west will remain off shore.

! Thank you for including the days. I was a bit rushed this morning. lol

The brief shot of cooler air filters in mid-week and lingers around until the early part of the weekend. We'll see temperatures moderate some next weekend, but it should be, as you stated, at or below normal. Either way, that's a good pattern change for us. I'm tired of forecasting a day or two of cooler weather with a string of 4-5 days of above average temperatures.

The rain chances Tuesday continue to evaporate with the 6Z and most people will probably be left fairly dry. The 6Z GFS tries to develop another low along the Gulf Coast next weekend with a disturbance riding in from the Pacific, but I'm not fully buying into that yet.

Hour 384 would be gorgeous if the trough were a bit more east.

[Wow]

Atlantic looking great and staying great for while. Pacific is keeping us from going into the icebox but MJO forecasts a +PNA developing sometime in early December. Excite!

[dsaur]

! Thank you for including the days. I was a bit rushed this morning. lol

The brief shot of cooler air filters in mid-week and lingers around until the early part of the weekend. We'll see temperatures moderate some next weekend, but it should be, as you stated, at or below normal. Either way, that's a good pattern change for us. I'm tired of forecasting a day or two of cooler weather with a string of 4-5 days of above average temperatures.

The rain chances Tuesday continue to evaporate with the 6Z and most people will probably be left fairly dry. The 6Z GFS tries to develop another low along the Gulf Coast next weekend with a disturbance riding in from the Pacific, but I'm not fully buying into that yet.

Hour 384 would be gorgeous if the trough were a bit more east.

And that is what I'm looking for. All the cold in the world can't make it snow without rain. Any pattern changes need to bring the rains, or we'll be as unhappy as last winter, even while we're freezing Well....some of us love cold for colds sake...so we'll only be half unhappy without rain, lol. Seeing your breath freeze and fall as ice crystals would be way cool, but a wetter pattern would be better. T

[calculus1]

Cold Rain posted the interesting long range possibilities on the 06Z GFS this morning, but I don't like the shorter-term images at all. The rain that has been forecasted for this coming Tuesday seems to evaporate once again as it hits the mountains. Hardly a drop in the lee of the mountains in VA, NC, SC per this morning's run. Not good. We need the rain.

Here's GSP's take (I'm only referencing this for the rainfall potential, not the snow disco for the higher elevations) and this is only with 00Z model packages having run:

ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY

MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT...BUT WILL HAVE A

LIMITED RESIDENCE TIME BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON EARLY TUESDAY. SW

SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIMIT UPSLOPE FLOW OVER

ELEVATED TERRAIN...FURTHER LIMITING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THERE

WILL BE A WINDOW OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO

TUESDAY EVENING...BUT WITH A WEAK WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW STARTING

TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS WILL BE CARRIED AS THE FRONT CROSSES

THE AREA...BUT WITH LIMITED QPF. MODELS SOUNDINGS TUESDAY MORNING

SHOW THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEATION...BUT

WITH A DEEP LAYER OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE.

SNOW WILL BE CARRIED AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS FOR A

SEVERAL HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAWN...BUT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES

ABOVE FREEZING...ONLY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CARRIED ON THE

COLDEST MOUNTAIN TOPS.

MOISTURE DECREASE ENOUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR A RAPID DECLINE IN

POPS. MODEL SOUNDING ARE NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW

IN THE MOUNTAIN BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS...AND WOULD SEEM TO MORE

FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE OR RIM ICING AS THE LOWERING TOP OF

THE MOIST LAYER IS NOT ESPECIALLY COLD. WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN

THE PRECISE TIMING OF THE DRYING FROM ALOFT...A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO

LOW POP SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CARRIED AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE

PRECIPITATION ENDS...WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. DRYING WILL

OCCUR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT DEPARTS...WITH NO INDICATION

OF LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

[CandymanColumbusGA]

! Thank you for including the days. I was a bit rushed this morning. lol

The brief shot of cooler air filters in mid-week and lingers around until the early part of the weekend. We'll see temperatures moderate some next weekend, but it should be, as you stated, at or below normal. Either way, that's a good pattern change for us. I'm tired of forecasting a day or two of cooler weather with a string of 4-5 days of above average temperatures.

The rain chances Tuesday continue to evaporate with the 6Z and most people will probably be left fairly dry. The 6Z GFS tries to develop another low along the Gulf Coast next weekend with a disturbance riding in from the Pacific, but I'm not fully buying into that yet.

Hour 384 would be gorgeous if the trough were a bit more east.

I'm doing it again! I wasn't expecting the SE Ridge to rear its ugly head, but it is... I'm forecasting upper 60s/low 70s here come this weekend. The silver lining in all of this is that Canada is getting nice and cold. That bodes well for any future intrusions of cold air later in December. It's now looking like we'll have to wait until ~Dec. 9ish for the atmosphere to respond and for us to see something favorable... We'll see.

[POWERSTROKE]

Still sounds like cold coming around mid dec. Nothing to be discouraged about

[Wow]

I'm doing it again! I wasn't expecting the SE Ridge to rear its ugly head, but it is... I'm forecasting upper 60s/low 70s here come this weekend. The silver lining in all of this is that Canada is getting nice and cold. That bodes well for any future intrusions of cold air later in December. It's now looking like we'll have to wait until ~Dec. 9ish for the atmosphere to respond and for us to see something favorable... We'll see.

It has been looking that way for several days now. The S GOA low and its downstream ridge in conjunction with the -NAO underperforming compared to models last week basically took the first week of December off the table for most everyone.

[LithiaWx]

Still sounds like cold coming around mid dec. Nothing to be discouraged about

All fine and well but don't drop the goalposts while moving them.

[Brick Tamland]

Still sounds like cold coming around mid dec. Nothing to be discouraged about

All fine and well but don't drop the goalposts while moving them.

The trough near Alaska is screwing up everything. Hopefully that will get out of the way and we can keep the -NAO around for a while.

[LithiaWx]

The trough near Alaska is screwing up everything. Hopefully that will get out of the way and we can keep the -NAO around for a while.

I think long range forecasting in general is still a gigantic failure and we are at least a decade away from the science evolving enough to make it a worthwhile venture. I haven't been folowing the models like I have in years past but from the posts floating around we don't have much to hang our hat on in the medium range yet. When we get some data showing cold and snow is possible at about 7 days ill start to bite. The biggest issue I have with LR forecasters is all they have to do is keep moving the goalposts and they can claim victory. Calling for cold and snow in the winter isn't going out on a limb, even in the southeast. The forecasters calling for the favorable early December pattern were wrong. Moving the goalposts out two, three, four weeks doesn't make them right.

[Brick Tamland]

I think long range forecasting in general is still a gigantic failure and we are at least a decade away from the science evolving enough to make it a worthwhile venture. I haven't been folowing the models like I have in years past but from the posts floating around we don't have much to hang our hat on in the medium range yet. When we get some data showing cold and snow is possible at about 7 days ill start to bite. The biggest issue I have with LR forecasters is all they have to do is keep moving the goalposts and they can claim victory. Calling for cold and snow in the winter isn't going out on a limb, even in the southeast. The only way for a cold biased LR forecaster to be wrong is we have a winter like last year or they call out a timeframe and miss it. The forecasters calling for the favorable early December pattern were wrong. Moving the goalposts out two, three, four weeks doesn't make them right.

I understand what you mean. I guess things happen, though, that can't be forseen. It can be frustrating, however, when a long range forecast is off, or when it seems something good is always 10 days away and it doesn't happen. But we haven't even had a good 10 days away storm to look at yet. I am hoping things will get better the second half of December and that trough near AK weakens or vanishes. I think that is the one feature that is really throwing a monkey wrench into everything.

[GaWx]

I understand what you mean. I guess things happen, though, that can't be forseen. It can be frustrating, however, when a long range forecast is off, or when it seems something good is always 10 days away and it doesn't happen. But we haven't even had a good 10 days away storm to look at yet. I am hoping things will get better the second half of December and that trough near AK weakens or vanishes. I think that is the one feature that is really throwing a monkey wrench into everything.

Brick/folks,

You should probably prepare for the very realistic possibility that the GOA low will not weaken much in the means until at least January. I'm not forecasting that, but I wouldn't at all be surprised if no improvement occurs in Dec. being that the overall trend hasn't been good at all. The current -PDO as well as lack of a Nino are not going to allow it to easily change. I suggest that Brick and others mentally prepare themselves just in case they're wearing shorts on Christmas to make it less painful due to low expectations.

Folks, please put down the bazookas. I'm merely delivering a message.

[JoMo]

Brick/folks,

You should probably prepare for the very realistic possibility that the GOA low will not weaken much in the means until at least January. I'm not forecasting that, but I wouldn't at all be surprised if no improvement occurs in Dec. being that the overall trend hasn't been good at all. The current -PDO as well as lack of a Nino are not going to allow it to easily change. I suggest that Brick and others mentally prepare themselves just in case they're wearing shorts on Christmas to make it less painful due to low expectations.

Folks, please put down the bazookas. I'm merely delivering a message.

Burn the witch!!!!

It does look like a fairly stable pattern has evolved with that GOA low. The models keep pushing back any sort of ridge that dislodges it as well.

[Bevo]

Hmpf...and here I was thinking that the GOA low showing a little give in the shorter term (not in a 10 day) was good news. You got me.

[SnowNiner]

I think long range forecasting in general is still a gigantic failure and we are at least a decade away from the science evolving enough to make it a worthwhile venture. I haven't been folowing the models like I have in years past but from the posts floating around we don't have much to hang our hat on in the medium range yet. When we get some data showing cold and snow is possible at about 7 days ill start to bite. The biggest issue I have with LR forecasters is all they have to do is keep moving the goalposts and they can claim victory. Calling for cold and snow in the winter isn't going out on a limb, even in the southeast. The forecasters calling for the favorable early December pattern were wrong. Moving the goalposts out two, three, four weeks doesn't make them right.

I remember the EURO weeklies being pretty accurate the last couple of years, but yes I agree anything over a few weeks and you're really just guessing. That's why I still have faith January we see some type of flip.

[POWERSTROKE]

All fine and well but don't drop the goalposts while moving them.

I am just going by what some well known "mets" are saying.

[nchighcountrywx]

Brick/folks,

You should probably prepare for the very realistic possibility that the GOA low will not weaken much in the means until at least January. I'm not forecasting that, but I wouldn't at all be surprised if no improvement occurs in Dec. being that the overall trend hasn't been good at all. The current -PDO as well as lack of a Nino are not going to allow it to easily change. I suggest that Brick and others mentally prepare themselves just in case they're wearing shorts on Christmas to make it less painful due to low expectations.

Folks, please put down the bazookas. I'm merely delivering a message.

Unfortunately, better than even chance you are delivering the message on the way it will play out.

Ugh.

[Bevo]

Unfortunately, better than even chance you are delivering the message on the way it will play out.

Ugh.

To be clear - you are referring to December, right? And if that is the case, where are you getting those better than even odds for the latter part of December?

[nchighcountrywx]

To be clear - you are referring to December, right? And if that is the case, where are you getting those better than even odds for the latter part of December?

December - February

[Cold Rain]

To be clear - you are referring to December, right? And if that is the case, where are you getting those better than even odds for the latter part of December?

I am having trouble understanding why there is so much disappointment and discouragement already. I'm serious. We play around and kid around a lot here in the SE forum, but I'm serious about that. Nobody has yet to point out one single solitary piece of scientific evidence to show why we won't have cold weather and maybe even winter weather during December. Nobody. So what's the problem?

We are not even to December yet. The models are flipping in the LR, as they do each and every year. We still have about a month or so before the best climo period for cold and snow starts. We have a trough/low in the GOA and it's still not torching.

So why all the chagrin?

[Bevo]

I am having trouble understanding why there is so much disappointment and discouragement already. I'm serious. We play around and kid around a lot here in the SE forum, but I'm serious about that. Nobody has yet to point out one single solitary piece of scientific evidence to show why we won't have cold weather and maybe even winter weather during December. Nobody. So what's the problem?

We are not even to December yet. The models are flipping in the LR, as they do each and every year. We still have about a month or so before the best climo period for cold and snow starts. We have a trough/low in the GOA and it's still not torching.

So why all the chagrin?

That is my point. What data is showing "better then even odds"? That came across as a matter of fact. I will even concede December, for the sake of argument, but through February?

[WilkesboroDude]

A big part of my winter grading...is what happens near Christmas. If it is in the 60s+ that is at least a letter grade reduction...whether we get above average snow or not later on.

It makes perfect sense to me if people want to get upset about winter on approach to the holidays.

[griteater]

I think the scars from last winter are running deep, particularly with the E Pacific low/trough/vortex. Even the very best posters on this board and mets outside of here have little skill with how patterns are going to evolve weeks in advance...but right or wrong, folks want to see a good looking pattern shaping up, right now, if not sooner.

[Cold Rain]

I think the scars from last winter are running deep, particularly with the E Pacific low/trough/vortex. Even the very best posters on this board and mets outside of here have little skill with how patterns are going to evolve weeks in advance...but right or wrong, folks want to see a good looking pattern shaping up, right now, if not sooner.

I think that's part of it too...in reference to last winter and the GOA low. But that's just an emotional reaction. I think a big important key difference is that the strength and orientation of the GOA feature is different from last year. There is cold in Canada and it's supposed to get colder. That is hugely important. And that is real. And that is significant. And that has scientific bearing on how things might play out.

And I agree with Bevo, even if you concede December, which is silly, Jan and Feb too? Really?

[Southern Track]

I think that's part of it too...in reference to last winter and the GOA low. But that's just an emotional reaction. I think a big important key difference is that the strength and orientation of the GOA feature is different from last year. There is cold in Canada and it's supposed to get colder. That is hugely important. And that is real. And that is significant. And that has scientific bearing on how things might play out.

And I agree with Bevo, even if you concede December, which is silly, Jan and Feb too? Really?

I agree. We watched as Alaska had record snow last year, and Canada was nice and toasty, which was crucial in not being able to tap any cold air.

[Bevo]

I think the scars from last winter are running deep, particularly with the E Pacific low/trough/vortex. Even the very best posters on this board and mets outside of here have little skill with how patterns are going to evolve weeks in advance...but right or wrong, folks want to see a good looking pattern shaping up, right now, if not sooner.

I understand the skiddishness.

I don't understand the statements given as fact when the burden of proof cannot be relieved - especially if it's true that "Even the very best posters on this board and mets outside of here have little skill with how patterns are going to evolve weeks in advance...".

I could simply state that as far as the weather outside is concerned, this winter is off to a perfectly normal start temperature wise - and certainly shot side better than last year (which is in fact true). This will be a great winter.

I'm over simplifying it of course, but you get the point.