WilkesboroDude Posted November 14, 2012 Author Share Posted November 14, 2012 I am not as optimistic with more of a neutral ENSO setup now forecast. Don't think it will make much of a difference. Take this for whatever it's worth...but I read recently the ENSO status is not as important as a -NAO with regard to snowfall cover in NC, according to the climate data center for our state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Dbl block sig (AK and Greenland block) on 18z GFS at the end of the run. We never even came close to this kind of setup last winter, even in the 384 hr GFS runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 18z run splits the PV up to 10 hPa if I'm looking at this right. Very impressive run but it's out there in la la land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 18z run splits the PV up to 10 hPa if I'm looking at this right. Very impressive run but it's out there in la la land. Probably, but just getting it to la la land is a big step from last year... LOL The AK block and a west-based -NAO sig in some form is a real possibility, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Probably, but just getting it to la la land is a big step from last year... LOL The AK block and a west-based -NAO sig in some form is a real possibility, however. Definitely what we want for cold and snow chances. I remember this setup occurred in 2009 or 2010 winter. Basically the two blocks merge over the pole and can significantly displace the vortex south. Obviously its way out in time on the models but good to see nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 We need that Aleutian ridge to push poleward like it does on the 18z GFS, else we are stuck with that nasty trough right off the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 00z GFS fantasy storm in the mix at the end of the run 06z GFS Fantasy storm for the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Dbl block sig (AK and Greenland block) on 18z GFS at the end of the run. We never even came close to this kind of setup last winter, even in the 384 hr GFS runs! Can someone give me a little education here, I'm trying to learn. Where's the double blocking in this model? Is it the green (higher height pressures) that forces the blues to come underneath? My understanding is the purples and blues are the polor vortexes correct? Just trying to get a little better at understanding all the talk here so I can follow. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Don't think it will make much of a difference. Take this for whatever it's worth...but I read recently the ENSO status is not as important as a -NAO with regard to snowfall cover in NC, according to the climate data center for our state. Good points on the NAO and of course the AO (which were horribly positive for much of the year without winter of course). I think we may see 1 or 2 decent events outside the mountains with someone getting warning criteria snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Can someone give me a little education here, I'm trying to learn. Where's the double blocking in this model? Is it the green (higher height pressures) that forces the blues to come underneath? My understanding is the purples and blues are the polor vortexes correct? Just trying to get a little better at understanding all the talk here so I can follow. Thanks. Yes, it's the combo of the closed high NW of Alaska and the ridge over Greenland. A better way to visualize this is via the height anomaly maps. For a -AO, we want to see heights that are higher than normal in the arctic regions / Greenland. This favors the movement of the cold air away from the poles and into the mid-latitudes. The stronger and more persistent that pattern stays in tact, the better. The NC State Climate Office has some good info on it here - http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NAO.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 To bad it's in the fantasy range.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 12z GFS continues the transition in the longer-range (10-15 day) bringing the AK block east and hooking up with western ridge, forcing the PV south and bringing about a strong Greenblock (-NAO) in place by day 15. It's pretty to look at, but does tell me that the AK block is an important feature to watch. We'll have to see how strong it develops and if it does hook up with the western ridge, fun times for December. 240 hrs: 336 hrs: 384 hrs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 I really like how this is playing out for this winter. We even have something to look at in fantasy land already. The pattern seems to be a huge improvement from last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 I really like how this is playing out for this winter. We even have something to look at in fantasy land already. The pattern seems to be a huge improvement from last winter. A cold fart in the wind would be a huge improvement from last winter. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 12z GFS continues the transition in the longer-range (10-15 day) bringing the AK block east and hooking up with western ridge, forcing the PV south and bringing about a strong Greenblock (-NAO) in place by day 15. It's pretty to look at, but does tell me that the AK block is an important feature to watch. We'll have to see how strong it develops and if it does hook up with the western ridge, fun times for December. The LR on the GFS is a thing of beauty. That's the setup right there we want for most of the winter. Just let the pac eject storms and roll into the GOM and we'll be in business. Of course we know how the GFS is with it's extreme solution but even it's just moderate it's still a good sign for this winter I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 The LR on the GFS is a thing of beauty. That's the setup right there we want for most of the winter. Just let the pac eject storms and roll into the GOM and we'll be in business. Of course we know how the GFS is with it's extreme solution but even it's just moderate it's still a good sign for this winter I would think. I just hope it's not going to be wasted now and not be cold enough for snow, and then disappear when the real cold air comes later in Dec - Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 The LR on the GFS is a thing of beauty. That's the setup right there we want for most of the winter. Just let the pac eject storms and roll into the GOM and we'll be in business. Of course we know how the GFS is with it's extreme solution but even it's just moderate it's still a good sign for this winter I would think. It is nice to see this solution even in lala land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 For as good as the GFS looked in the LR the Euro looked bad. Granted the Euro only goes out to 10days, but looks nothing like the GFS, and shows a +NAO the whole run. With this and the just released seasonal models showing a +NAO for the winter, this isn't a great start to winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 The LR on the GFS is a thing of beauty. That's the setup right there we want for most of the winter. Just let the pac eject storms and roll into the GOM and we'll be in business. Of course we know how the GFS is with it's extreme solution but even it's just moderate it's still a good sign for this winter I would think. With Goofy everything could verify.... until we see some low teens in Miami That's when the doubt creeps in, lol. The end of the month has looked colder for a while now, and if it keeps getting better I won't complain. Robert was talking about double blocking a few days back, and I'd love to see it. It's just I worry about having good things in late Nov/early Dec, that might leave us with nada come Jan, and Feb. Last winter memories strike terror. Still, one of these years we'll get good things in Aces, and we'll have the winter they'll be talking about in 100 years...like the 1880's around here. It's so easy for hope to spring eternal in mid Nov., but what will we be thinking in a month? It'd sure help to get the weak Nino, for Atl. anyway. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 It's so easy for hope to spring eternal in mid Nov. Yep, it's like NFL teams in mid-August. Cold stratosphere is the biggest concern at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 With Goofy everything could verify.... until we see some low teens in Miami That's when the doubt creeps in, lol. The end of the month has looked colder for a while now, and if it keeps getting better I won't complain. Robert was talking about double blocking a few days back, and I'd love to see it. It's just I worry about having good things in late Nov/early Dec, that might leave us with nada come Jan, and Feb. Last winter memories strike terror. Still, one of these years we'll get good things in Aces, and we'll have the winter they'll be talking about in 100 years...like the 1880's around here. It's so easy for hope to spring eternal in mid Nov., but what will we be thinking in a month? It'd sure help to get the weak Nino, for Atl. anyway. T That is what I worry about and hope for at the same time. It just seems our weather the last decade has been one of extremes. Either we get nothing, or we get something huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 That is what I worry about and hope for at the same time. It just seems our weather the last decade has been one of extremes. Either we get nothing, or we get something huge. December is not my concern for CLT. I don't remember ever getting a good event in December (Christmas storm was VERY overated IMO for charlotte). December is a warm up for January and Feb. On a seperate note, I thought yesterday both the EURO and the GFS were calling for the NAO to go negative later on. Has that now changed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 December is not my concern for CLT. I don't remember ever getting a good event in December (Christmas storm was VERY overated IMO for charlotte). December is a warm up for January and Feb. We might just have to take it when we can get it. Last winter was nothing but a warm up for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 With Goofy everything could verify.... until we see some low teens in Miami That's when the doubt creeps in, lol. The end of the month has looked colder for a while now, and if it keeps getting better I won't complain. Robert was talking about double blocking a few days back, and I'd love to see it. It's just I worry about having good things in late Nov/early Dec, that might leave us with nada come Jan, and Feb. Last winter memories strike terror. Still, one of these years we'll get good things in Aces, and we'll have the winter they'll be talking about in 100 years...like the 1880's around here. It's so easy for hope to spring eternal in mid Nov., but what will we be thinking in a month? It'd sure help to get the weak Nino, for Atl. anyway. T Haha true that. I think that's why many are so on edge about December, like I said in an earlier post if we can pull out a miracle at least we'll have something and the torment won't be as bad if Jan and Feb. produce nothing. Last winter was like sticking your hand in the cookie jar and pulling out a lump of coal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 December is not my concern for CLT. I don't remember ever getting a good event in December (Christmas storm was VERY overated IMO for charlotte). December is a warm up for January and Feb. On a seperate note, I thought yesterday both the EURO and the GFS were calling for the NAO to go negative later on. Has that now changed? It's hard to call any storm around Christmas that produces snow overrated. Yes we expected more and seemed to get the shaft compared to points north, west, south and east but hey the fact is snow began to fall on Christmas day which hadn't happened since 1942...I don't even think a flurry could be considered overrated given the circumstances. I believe it was the Euro weeklies that called for the -NAO....GFS is still shoing a -NAO at the end of it's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 I know forecasting snow outside of the mountains in NC is one of the most diffucult things to do. Is there one model that usually does better, though, in regards to getting the forecast right for snow around here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Yep, it's like NFL teams in mid-August. Cold stratosphere is the biggest concern at the moment. Until some other factor gets hyped up just a wee bit much. It's always some new topic that the talk of the board.. from NAO, to the EPO, to the MJO, to the GLAAM, and now stratospheric vortices. They all play a part, but which effects what?... or is it the other way around? That's the big question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Until some other factor gets hyped up just a wee bit much. It's always some new topic that the talk of the board.. from NAO, to the EPO, to the MJO, to the GLAAM, and now stratospheric vortices. They all play a part, but which effects what?... or is it the other way around? That's the big question. Yeah, know what you mean. The snow cover thread on the main board talks about the solid correlation between a cold stratosphere in Siberia in November and a +AO for Dec into Jan. So, that's the issue as so far the stratosphere has been cold through the first 1/2 of November. Still time for it to warm in second 1/2, but we'll see. Regardless, that correlation breaks down in the 2nd half of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Yeah, know what you mean. The snow cover thread on the main board talks about the solid correlation between a cold stratosphere in Siberia in November and a +AO for Dec into Jan. So, that's the issue as so far the stratosphere has been cold through the first 1/2 of November. Still time for it to warm in second 1/2, but we'll see. Regardless, that correlation breaks down in the 2nd half of winter. It surely was last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 It's hard to call any storm around Christmas that produces snow overrated. Yes we expected more and seemed to get the shaft compared to points north, west, south and east but hey the fact is snow began to fall on Christmas day which hadn't happened since 1942...I don't even think a flurry could be considered overrated given the circumstances. I believe it was the Euro weeklies that called for the -NAO....GFS is still shoing a -NAO at the end of it's run. That's kinda my point actually, December is not our snow zone. We/I don't expect it so what happens in December I'm not worried about. I just mentioned the Christmas storm to point out how it was out of the norm. I'm computer challenged but yesterday somebody posted a bar graph showing both the EURO and the GFS NAO indices going negative at the end of the month. Then I heard EURO is now showing positive. Just curious on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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