r-ville Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Look at radar: http://radar.weather...s/full_loop.php Note that heavy band of rain down over mouth of Chesapeake/SE MD/S DE. Wow. Just sitting there. Yep - been noticing that too. well, i'm about as prepared as i can be, minus i have to go get 2 more cases of beer today and i'm still making ice, but as ready as ready can be/ I figure maybe go out for one more bottle Tequila (good stuff does not require ice) and maybe a bit more gas. All the best to you both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 My grid forecast. Mine: .MONDAY...RAIN. VERY WINDY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. .MONDAY NIGHT...RAIN. VERY WINDY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS 35 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. .TUESDAY...RAIN. STRONG WINDS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. EAST WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 30 TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. .TUESDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. VERY WINDY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Yep - been noticing that too. I figure maybe go out for one more bottle Tequila (good stuff does not require ice) and maybe a bit more gas. All the best to you both. good luck to you as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 In all seriousness, good luck to everyone of you guys over the next two and a half days. We'll all likely lose power, but I hope there is minimal damage at your homes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 What are everyone's plans regarding work tomorrow? Still trying to decide what I'm going to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 What are everyone's plans regarding work tomorrow? Still trying to decide what I'm going to do. Schools are guaranteed to be closed. I am 50-50 on trying a few hours early but I WILL BE home no later than noon. If the agencies say stay off the roads, I will heed that request. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Before the showers, 6z NAM QPF doesn't reach 3.00". GFS a little above. Yeah, basically nobody is in rainfall that will be terribly excessive at this point. again everyone really needs to not pay attention to what model qpf output is. These models are not designed to handle tropical features very well. The amount of moisture involved with this system has to potential to surpass those numbers easily. Looking at those maps and thinking 2-3" of rain is not bad I will be ok is not a good way to look at this storm. Unfortunately public who do not understand how serious this is will think the maps they see do not look like much rain and ignore the "locally 10"+" statements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 again everyone really needs to not pay attention to what model qpf output is. These models are not designed to handle tropical features very well. The amount of moisture involved with this system has to potential to surpass those numbers easily. Looking at those maps and thinking 2-3" of rain is not bad I will be ok is not a good way to look at this storm. Unfortunately public who do not understand how serious this is will think the maps they see do not look like much rain and ignore the "locally 10"+" statements. SW side of the storm, from what I was told by forky, may have an intense rain band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 South Central and Southeast PA get crushed. I expect 5-8" of rain there and 70mph wind gust. Get ready guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Schools are guaranteed to be closed. I am 50-50 on trying a few hours early but I WILL BE home no later than noon. If the agencies say stay off the roads, I will heed that request. At this point, I'm thinking about going in really early so I'm finished around noon. I started this job about a month ago and don't exactly have a ton of time to take off. Additionally, it's down in Cockeysville, MD, so there is a 1.5-2 hour commute down 83 involved. With any luck, they'll close the plant and my decision will be made for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 New NHC update puts Sandy over Lancaster as a 70mph storm. Look out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 What a mess. I work in Baltimore and no way am I going to drive down I 83 just to come home on a back road surrounded by large trees. Hopefully common sense prevails and everything shuts down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 SW side of the storm, from what I was told by forky, may have an intense rain band. Jamie I seen that mentioned somewhere too. "MA discussion" ?? I never hardly watch the TWC....but they have had pretty good information on this event. Dr. Steve Martin also seems to think, that this storm may be stronger than what the models are predicting. Just getting some last minute things done today. Not so sure how long we will have internet or how long the site will stay up. But everyone be safe!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Jamie I seen that mentioned somewhere too. "MA discussion" ?? I never hardly watch the TWC....but they have had pretty good information on this event. Dr. Steve Martin also seems to think, that this storm may be stronger than what the models are predicting. Just getting some last minute things done today. Not so sure how long we will have internet or how long the site will stay up. But everyone be safe!!!!! Yep, that's where, the MA discussion. OK everyone I made a PA forecast contest thread: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/37507-pa-prediction-thread-for-sandy/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 GFS is absolutely devastating to south central and the Susq valley. Sustained winds 35KTS and Gust over 60KTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 That's only like 35 mph with gust to 60 mph.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 That's only like 35 mph with gust to 60 mph.. KTS.. So 45mph gust to 70mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 So what's something reasonable to expect for State College? Right now I'm thinking 3-6" of rain, sustained 30-40 mph winds, and peak gusts to 60-65 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 So what's something reasonable to expect for State College? Right now I'm thinking 3-6" of rain, sustained 30-40 mph winds, and peak gusts to 60-65 mph. Sounds about right. This is not like our typical High Wind event either. Usually we are sustained maybe 20-25 and we get many 50mph gust and maybe like 2-3 65mph gust. This will be gust to 65 many many times over 18hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I think the area from Chambersburg to Lancaster will gust to near hurricane force a few times with plenty of 65mph gust for hours on end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 horst is saying 30-45 mpg sustained, 60+ gusts, 3-6" of rain (isolated 8"+) and isolated f0-f1 TOR threat. The next few days are gonna be interesting. Pressure has been falling steadily since mid-morning and wind has picked up, although the increase in wind could just be from normal daytime convection. Squared away the PWS this morning as it has been inop for the past month while I was troubleshooting PC issues. Live data can be viewed from the link in my sig. Off topic, but perhaps related, squirrels are going NUTS (pun not intended) in my backyard. I can see 7 right now in various states of squirreliness. Is there a link between animal behavior and acute weather events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irvingtwosmokes Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 How is Johnstown looking through this? good luck to all of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 How is Johnstown looking through this? good luck to all of you. About 2-3" of rain with wind gust near 60mph. Maybe some ending snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I think southern York, Lancaster and Cumberland counties get the worst of the wind and gusts. The MD/PA border looks to be the epicenter of the deform area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irvingtwosmokes Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 About 2-3" of rain with wind gust near 60mph. Maybe some ending snow Thanks, a little worried about wind tunnel effect, with it blowing right through the Conemaugh Gap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I think southern York, Lancaster and Cumberland counties get the worst of the wind and gusts. The MD/PA border looks to be the epicenter of the deform area. Ah, good old Carroll / Adams / York counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Same here I live in a valley where the elevation is 460 and the mountain next to me has an elevation of 1100 ft. Gonna be interesting if the creek floods and the high winds to boot. Thanks, a little worried about wind tunnel effect, with it blowing right through the Conemaugh Gap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 It was nice knowing you lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 WIDESPREAD RAINS OF 3-5" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE 6-10" RANGE ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING ON MANY STREAMS AND CREEKS...AND LOW LYING AREAS. LARGER RIVERS WILL BE SLOWER TO RESPOND LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE RARE CASES WHEN WE COULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH OR GREATER AS THE INTENSE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD BE OVER SERN ZONES WITH CHANCES DIMINISHING THE FURTHER WEST INTO THE FCST AREA WE GO...DUE TO THE STORM BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL. WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE STRONG HOWEVER AS THE STORM TAKES LONGER TO WIND DOWN ALOFT...AND WE MIX THE VERY STRONG WINDS DOWN DUE TO MECHANICAL MIXING. 850 WINDS IN THE GFS ARE PROGGED AS HIGH AS 100KTS WITH SPEEDS IN THE OTHER MODELS NOT TOO MUCH LOWER THAN THAT. THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO A WIDESPREAD WIND STORM WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLY AFFECTING MILLIONS OF PEOPLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 Governor Corbett will give a media briefing at 4:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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