Weekend Storm Disco (Dec 18th & 19th)

[CaryWx]

The west trend starts, now tonight's GFS, Euro, Nam will bring it farther west as the current system gets out of the way and the data starts getting real. I will say that if I was East of the Char. to Triad area I would be happy with this run,because most of you guys are in the game no matter of a west trend or not . Like Robert said it is coming in @ night so you guys in the east have the best chance right now.

I wish I could believe that, but for me and folks like Widre in Chapel Hill a westward trend will bring in too much warm (nose perhaps?) from the coast and turn us into rain most likely.

[eyewall]

Trending nicely! My update

http://www.examiner....y-evening-night

I only hope this come to pass! This has an outside shot at being my make up storm for last year.

[FoothillsNC]

Is the NE third of the state even cold enough for SN this run, from what I am reading in the model thread, it looks like RN with a closer to the coast track, thanks!

What's interesting is the slp track is pretty ideal for us. I think we're very much in the game. Still 3 days away.

I agree that this is climo perfecto for the Upstate and western Carolinas to central piedmont...roughly an 85 special and points north and west (to a point). Whats missing is the low getting started in the northwest gulf, this one gets its act started in the northeastern Gulf, which is my worry all along. Its trending more west and slightly north so we are still in the hunt here this far west. All models are nicely clustered now but a few miles difference makes a difference. Atleast the shortwave didin't get comletely lost like it did on a couple of runs. Still, we in the 85 corridor are walking a might tight rope. Our temps are borderline, the precip rates are borderline, and the tiime of day isn't the best. I'd prefer an after dark arrival...but looks like a midday start here. Fun system to watch. REgardless what I get, I hope somebody in this state gets a dump of snow. Its a good setup so long as the low gets cranking.

[HKY_WX]

The day 3 euro 5h AV has the upper low on top of central NC. If this were to trend more phased, that would generally put the best snows over central and western NC.

[FoothillsNC]

it would also help my winter fx to verify atleast snow wise, I had the eastern half down to central GA with above snows. I'm pretty sure now eastern NC portion is going to come through.

[snowdevil]

This is a good trend. If the low forms further west N Ga could be back in the game couldn't they?

[packbacker]

Trending nicely! My update

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/as-ice-snow-winds-down-today-more-snow-possible-saturday-evening-night

Thanks Raleigh!

[FoothillsNC]

Wow, look at the strength of that next clipper! Its a bowling ball upper low, and although it shows just a little too warm at first, I'd keep my eyes on that again for portions of northern and eastern NC. That could be an overperformer.

[RaleighWx]

The new 12z ECMWF gives Raleigh 1.04 inches of liquid eq QPF. The first 0.24 inch is between 18z and 00z Saturday. The 18z Sat RDU sounding would support rain, but by 00z it is an all snow sounding. So one would assume 0.8 of that is all snow, with the first 0.24 being rain changing to snow. Needless to say a big event for RDU.

[WeatherNC]

it would also help my winter fx to verify atleast snow wise, I had the eastern half down to central GA with above snows. I'm pretty sure now eastern NC portion is going to come through.

2" and counting

[eyewall]

2" and counting

Nice!

[HKY_WX]

I agree that this is climo perfecto for the Upstate and western Carolinas to central piedmont...roughly an 85 special and points north and west (to a point). Whats missing is the low getting started in the northwest gulf, this one gets its act started in the northeastern Gulf, which is my worry all along. Its trending more west and slightly north so we are still in the hunt here this far west. All models are nicely clustered now but a few miles difference makes a difference. Atleast the shortwave didin't get comletely lost like it did on a couple of runs. Still, we in the 85 corridor are walking a might tight rope. Our temps are borderline, the precip rates are borderline, and the tiime of day isn't the best. I'd prefer an after dark arrival...but looks like a midday start here. Fun system to watch. REgardless what I get, I hope somebody in this state gets a dump of snow. Its a good setup so long as the low gets cranking.

The SLP is due south of new orleans at hour 48 and tracks pretty much right across the ideal areas for us. I mean you honestly couldn't place a SLP in better spots for us than what the euro is painting. I think all we need to have happen, is for this low to phase a little sooner. It's very weak to start and strengthens a little late. If trends follow last year, we will see this phasing trend continue. But it is a new year, so who knows.

[snowdevil]

it would also help my winter fx to verify atleast snow wise, I had the eastern half down to central GA with above snows. I'm pretty sure now eastern NC portion is going to come through.

What do you mean here? Central Ga is going to get snow? Or they were going to get snow? If so could N Ga still get snow if this keeps trending west? Thanks

[GreensboroWx]

Very well done and said. I couldn't agree more.

Crazy how the models flop back and forth. Remember the northern piece of energy is still off the Washington coast today. I still think the models will waffle a little between now and then, but the trend is favorable. We'll need the system to deepen off of the coast to pull down enough cold air to help in the snow department. Could be a nice thumping of snow for some. Right now a line from CLT to GSO to RIC and east looks good.

Trending nicely! My update

http://www.examiner....y-evening-night

[Poimen]

The new 12z ECMWF gives Raleigh 1.04 inches of liquid eq QPF. The first 0.24 inch is between 18z and 00z Saturday. The 18z Sat RDU sounding would support rain, but by 00z it is an all snow sounding. So one would assume 0.8 of that is all snow, with the first 0.24 being rain changing to snow. Needless to say a big event for RDU.

Thank you and God bless you!

[UNCCmetgrad]

Well the big winner in my opinion on this Euro is stil going to be further east. RDU should be able to get a good one and points east. The eastern half of the state gets the benefit of having the best moisture and lift arrive at dark and overnight, and the cold aloft should support snow there. Dynamics really begin to kick in quickly as you can see that surface low go from 1012 over northern Florida to 1008 coastal GA and then really crank up near Wilmington. 996mb off Outer Banks with the shortwave almost neg. tilt, great throwback on top of the main overrunning snows for Raleigh to eastern area.

It then explodes off Jersey, so this is a major nor'easter probably. Its a western trend for sure, all about timing where it amplifies, but if I were east of CLT in central to eastern especially the northeastern Third of NC I'd sure like the looks of this. For areas areound GSP to CLT to AVL and HKY we're on the back end. We're not out , but certainly not anything like what transpires downeast.

Great post Robert. I'm thinking even if we do get snow back this far west, it may not be heavy enough to overcome the warmer surface layer. Points further east that receive heavier snowfall rates this should not be a problem. You have to say though the trend is our friend.

[WidreMann]

So here's the thing I want verification on. If the storm trends stronger and further NW, how bad are we talking for the temps here in the Triangle (western Triangle is all I care about, really)? I know that a stronger storm will pull in colder air, but will it be enough and in time? I'm starting to get worried. I'd hate to see a rainstorm here to round out this cold period.

[DixieBlizzard]

What do you mean here? Central Ga is going to get snow? Or they were going to get snow? If so could N Ga still get snow if this keeps trending west? Thanks

Damn it, Corey. NO! He was talking about his overall winter forecast for snow and bottom line, this is not our event as of now and likely will not be unless you move to North Carolina which would be great for the other GA posters!

[Amos83]

Very well done and said. I couldn't agree more.

Crazy how the models flop back and forth. Remember the northern piece of energy is still off the Washington coast today. I still think the models will waffle a little between now and then, but the trend is favorable. We'll need the system to deepen off of the coast to pull down enough cold air to help in the snow department. Could be a nice thumping of snow for some. Right now a line from CLT to GSO to RIC and east looks good.

Well hell there goes any chance I have of getting a good night's sleep tonight or tomorrow! I'm with Hickory on this, the LP is just about a perfect and text book track for a good dump here. We just need a slightly earlier phase and we are talking bigtime storm for the CLT area. It will be fun to see what the models continue to move toward tonight and tomorrow.

[HKY_WX]

Damn it, Corey. NO! He was talking about his overall winter forecast for snow and bottom line, this is not our event as of now and likely will not be unless you move to North Carolina which would be great for the other GA posters!

step away from the ledge!

[DLI4SCwx]

too late on the cold getting in there. This is a case where cold is arriving about everywhre at the exact same time the moisture is arrriving everywhere. So I think it looks like the best lift and rapidly developing moisture shield is leaving the 85 corridor and growing becaue the s/w is strongly amplifying. This will cause 850s to crash nicely and support snow in areas east of CLT to RDU around late afternoon or most likley darkfall. Overnight its literally showing a pretty big hit for the eastern third of NC. AT 66 RDU is right on the line of being cold enough aloft but with that ampl. on the coast, I think the temps would crash there while its cold enough with dynamic lift. Really its about this way for the track of the whole storm through n. Ga across nrn. SC and much of NC, speaking of how the temps could be affected by dynamic cooling. I haven't seen but a few panels of the 2m temps yet, but those aren't that trustworthy. eastern NC is still too warm aloft , but eventually they'll cooldown overnight and get wraparound snow.

Qpf: about .40" (estimating from along 85 til just east of CLT, then rapid increase after there.

Thanks Robert! Guess this one just isn't our storm. Hopefully we'll get more opportunities later on down the road.

[FoothillsNC]

The SLP is due south of new orleans at hour 48 and tracks pretty much right across the ideal areas for us. I mean you honestly couldn't place a SLP in better spots for us than what the euro is painting. I think all we need to have happen, is for this low to phase a little sooner. It's very weak to start and strengthens a little late. If trends follow last year, we will see this phasing trend continue. But it is a new year, so who knows.

I didn't see a low press there, only saw one at Fl panhandle when it starts forming. I'll check again though. Yes the trend is what matters now, but the one negative for us this far west is that the next piece of energy is a little late getting into this phase, so far no model has it happening quite in time to do it for us, but again the trend could be crucial.

What do you mean here? Central Ga is going to get snow? Or they were going to get snow? If so could N Ga still get snow if this keeps trending west? Thanks

No, but i had GA down for above snow there to CAE and points north. This one won't be cold enough that far south, but Winter's not over.

Great post Robert. I'm thinking even if we do get snow back this far west, it may not be heavy enough to overcome the warmer surface layer. Points further east that receive heavier snowfall rates this should not be a problem. You have to say though the trend is our friend.

thanks, I agree. I'd like to see more gulf development further west instead of the FL panhandle for us. We could get grazed nicely, but temps are not very cold here and the time of day is pretty bad. That could change by 6 to 8 hours though and make a big difference.

[nchighcountrywx]

Good luck to all outside of the mountains to get a substantial snow over the next few days. The mountains have had so much, it is only fair to share it around.

Sorry that I do not have time to provide much input as I am tied down with work and work deliverables must come first.

[HKY_WX]

Wow the euro, aloft, couldn't look more different than the nam at hour 72. Expect some major changes on those mods this evening.

[WidreMann]

Good luck to all outside of the mountains to get a substantial snow over the next few days. The mountains have had so much, it is only fair to share it around.

Sorry that I do not have time to provide much input as I am tied down with work and work deliverables must come first.

But you had time to make a vague and unsubstantiated post. Interesting.

[DixieBlizzard]

step away from the ledge!

What ledge? This guy will almost spam this site like he has others if allowed to continue with his line of questioning. I dismissed him as a kid 7 years ago but he has to be in his twenties by now. He needs to read, comprehend what he is reading and ask questions later. Corey is lazy.

[Pilotwx]

Look at the ridge off the GA. FLA. coast trying to push the system back west. It just needs to sharpen up quicker for the western areas to get any snows. I think it looks like low could run from Charelston SC, to WIL. on North. Just my thoughts.

this looks good for RDU, although I would like to know where the 0 850 line is at 0Z Sunday.

[Amos83]

Hey Foothills,

If the LP phases sooner wouldn't that slow it down as well? Hopefully we can get a little more phasing to not only bring more of W.NC into play but also slow it down enough to allow colder air to filter in.

Loving the trends today though, hopefully we can keep it up! Our window is shrinking though.....

[burrel2]

Great post Robert. I'm thinking even if we do get snow back this far west, it may not be heavy enough to overcome the warmer surface layer. Points further east that receive heavier snowfall rates this should not be a problem. You have to say though the trend is our friend.

A thing yall do have going for you is the low sun angle. Isn't the sun angle at it's lowest point on December 22nd? It looks to me like ya'll would be cloudy Saturday morning, combined with the low sun angle, maybe the boundary layer won't be too much of a problem....

[Cheeznado]

Well, good luck NC folks on this next system, GA will likely get the screw and back do cold and dry again. I hate storms that barely miss us then go on to cream the entire eastern seaboard.

Glad I chased the snow last weekend....