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Weekend Storm Disco (Dec 18th & 19th)

WeatherNC

By WeatherNC,
in Southeastern States

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

I just looked at 84 hours and see that the added energy is enough to sharpen it and close to giving the Midatlantic a substantial snowstorm. This would be the ultimate slap to n. Ga and the western Carolinas to miss a southern stream only to have it sharpen up enough to give DC another event.:gun_bandana:

Hopefully Euro gives us some love. If the MA cashes in again at the last minute...FML.

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Weather Czar

Weather Czar

Posted
Posted

how much precip did you manage? the models did pretty good on qpf here and the Upstate/85 corridor , with trace to .05" and less. I got ..01", which is about what I was expecting. For the weekend event, the s/w amplifies a little too late at 5H that look is still similar really, I'm not paying attention to the surface reflection, but you'd expect a north Florida or coastal Southeast development with that look and since the flow is amplifying then, it could hook up eastern NC and VA , which again was always the most likely scenario. If the flow were to amplify further west then enough moisture could get drawn up earlier that would get the 85 corridor. You could get some accum. just from the moisture getting wrung out crossing the mountains Saturday, but that wouldn't do anything here. Looking at the long zonal-esque flow east to west, theres room for more amplfi. further west than any models show though, so I guess its possible. Just all the trends still focus the biggest chace being eastern third of Carolinas and southeast Va.

Not sure. I'm at work but I would say at least 1/2 of liquid so far. Its been coming down hard for a few hours now.

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

how much precip did you manage? the models did pretty good on qpf here and the Upstate/85 corridor , with trace to .05" and less. I got ..01", which is about what I was expecting. For the weekend event, the s/w amplifies a little too late at 5H that look is still similar really, I'm not paying attention to the surface reflection, but you'd expect a north Florida or coastal Southeast development with that look and since the flow is amplifying then, it could hook up eastern NC and VA , which again was always the most likely scenario. If the flow were to amplify further west then enough moisture could get drawn up earlier that would get the 85 corridor. You could get some accum. just from the moisture getting wrung out crossing the mountains Saturday, but that wouldn't do anything here. Looking at the long zonal-esque flow east to west, theres room for more amplfi. further west than any models show though, so I guess its possible. Just all the trends still focus the biggest chace being eastern third of Carolinas and southeast Va.

I had .08" Here are the CoCoRaHS readings for Georgia as of 6:45 am for the last 24 hours:

http://www.cocorahs....e.aspx?state=GA

And NC http://www.cocorahs.org/State.aspx?state=NC

and SC http://www.cocorahs.org/State.aspx?state=SC

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

Looks like all models have the phasing coming in just a smidge too late for western areas of NC. This could really help pull the coastal and give a nice snowfall in eastern NC and then up the coast if its strong enough to keep it close to the coast. I don' t like this chance for my area, unless the Euro comes in much futher west. Coastal development doesn't help us this far west.

post-38-0-26593300-1292519318.jpg

post-38-0-00841700-1292519340.jpg

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rduwx

rduwx

Posted
Posted

What's up SE crew. I've been busy at work this morning so just getting caught up on things. I see the gfs has now shifted back also. Good to see the models starting to come around and atleast give us a chance. It'll be interesting to see what the 12z euro shows.

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

Posted
Posted

Schools closed and work today is at a stand still. I will also be waiting for burger to be here for the Euro :)

Boss got pizza so I'll be here for the Euro boys.

Just ask your spoon man. Maybe it has a clue :)

What's up SE crew. I've been busy at work this morning so just getting caught up on things. I see the gfs has now shifted back also. Good to see the models starting to come around and atleast give us a chance. It'll be interesting to see what the 12z euro shows.

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

As usual with my location, got a front row seat and should be in the game. Question as always is to what degree. Hate the coastals hurt everyone out west and vice versa with inland tracks and how they affect the eastern guys. Looking in the early stages like there will probably be a sharp precip gradient from several inches of snow V/S No Snow setting up N/S in NC. My early guess is it will be between I-85 & 1-77. If phase is latter, then it will set up between Hwy 1 & i-85. These modeled solutions as of 0z euro last night would verify as a couple+ inches from GBoro out toward Ral up to RWI , tidewater. Acccums would increase as you head east. Be fun to watch and a 50-100 mile shift east or west is on the table and will only take an hour or 2 slower or quicker phase genesis. So definetely worth paying attention.

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

There is no passing front here. The moisture is moving in from the south and later from the east. If you see moisture over you and you are north of the 850 line, that means that it's below zero and cold enough for snow and there is precip. Not too hard to see why this would be the case if you do an ounce of critical thinking.

I was just making a general statement as I see it happening a lot. This system is a bit different though.

EDIT: I should have worded it more along the lines of "cold air chasing the moisture" down here.

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tgarren

tgarren

Posted
Posted

What's up SE crew. I've been busy at work this morning so just getting caught up on things. I see the gfs has now shifted back also. Good to see the models starting to come around and atleast give us a chance. It'll be interesting to see what the 12z euro shows.

yeah idk why anyone would want to be in the GFS bullseye this far out. im sure it will trend back north then end up a tad south of what the models show. seems about what usually happens.

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