April 14th, 2012 Plains High Risk

[EquusStorm]

It's interesting that we still have a lot of convection - severe even - at this early hour. It will be very interesting to see in what ways this cluster interacts with the parameters later today, particularly regarding boundaries. Of course, you guys already obviously know that. I'm an amateur when it comes to these kinds of things, just thinking aloud in a thread that could become one of the most infamous on AmWx should the worst-case scenario play out. I am very concerned for the folks in the highest risk area, particularly over eastern NE and western IA. Frightening stuff. I'll be paying close attention to what you experts say during this potentially high-end tornado outbreak in the coming hours.

[andyhb]

Wow at the Edmond cell with the latest scan...

[tornadotony]

I think there might be debris on the radar...don't have dual-pol to be sure.

[andyhb]

Certainly has a formidable couplet.

[Superstorm93]

http://i300.photobucket.com/albums/nn39/Stormchaser20079/April%2012-16%20Severe%20Outbreak/DP.png

[wxsniss]

[andyhb]

http://www.news9.com/category/184600/severe-weather-embedded-live-stream-kwtv1?redirected=true

[SmokeEater]

TOG per Logan County FD and Sheriff.

[Derecho!]

TOG per Logan County FD and Sheriff.

_{Which cell?}

[andyhb]

Storm has now cycled, impressive hook showing up again.

Edit: Weakened again.

[SmokeEater]

_{Which cell?}

The only TW'd one.

[andyhb]

Alright, off to bed, will need to prepared for a long day tomorrow. I have to work, but will try to stay caught up on my phone.

[somethingfunny]

Projected Helicity in Omaha at 9PM Saturday: 896.

If that hodograph looked any scarier it would be a Hodagraph.

[Stebo]

06z NAM even higher with the 0-1km and 0-3km EHI around 03z Sunday.

[Stebo]

Also that cell South of Stillwater might be producing again, tight G2G of 80kts at 3200'

Edit: latest scan weakened it some.

[andyhb]

Projected Helicity in Omaha at 9PM Saturday: 896.

If that hodograph looked any scarier it would be a Hodagraph.

I suddenly somehow felt the urge to wake up, that is unbelievable.

[baroclinic_instability]

Some soundings off the NAM in the LBF CWA. Sighs...this is going to be a long day today.

[andyhb]

Impressive low level backing owing to the rapid deepening and bombing of the sfc low...

[thewxmann]

The NMM WRF from SPC is typically very good at forecasting convective initiation (or the lack thereof). I am very skeptical of convective initiation before dark south of ICT, and I don't recall any major Plains outbreak where storms have initiated after dark. Someone please do correct me though if I'm wrong.

P.S. Just to be safe and not piss everyone off, I am not denying the potential north of ICT. In fact I think the northern high risk area ought to be extended south to ~Emporia (whilst removing the southern high area).

[SmokeEater]

The NMM WRF from SPC is typically very good at forecasting convective initiation (or the lack thereof). I am very skeptical of convective initiation before dark south of ICT, and I don't recall any major Plains outbreak where storms have initiated after dark. Someone please do correct me though if I'm wrong.

May 9th 2003.

[baroclinic_instability]

The NMM WRF from SPC is typically very good at forecasting convective initiation (or the lack thereof). I am very skeptical of convective initiation before dark south of ICT, and I don't recall any major Plains outbreak where storms have initiated after dark. Someone please do correct me though if I'm wrong.

P.S. Just to be safe and not piss everyone off, I am not denying the potential north of ICT. In fact I think the northern high risk area ought to be extended south to ~Emporia (whilst removing the southern high area).

You are not pissing anyone off. The lack of initiation is something everyone from SPC to local WFOs are discussing. It is an incredibly tough call, IMO.

[Stebo]

03z SREF showing some huge probabilities for 21z across a large area

Then reloads later on through the night further south

[wxsniss]

news9 showed this as occurring in Alden, OK Friday:

[JoMo]

Super heavy rain here with the passage of the front of that storm complex. Very little wind which was kind of surprising. I still hate storms.

[CoastalWx]

Man that area near southeast NE looks classic. Right along the warm front with sufficient CAPE north of the front moist E-SE upslope flow...theta-e transport FTW.

[Wx 24/7]

Storm just north of Tulsa near Owasso looks a little suspect to me. May need to watch it for the next little bit.

[JoMo]

Storm just north of Tulsa near Owasso looks a little suspect to me. May need to watch it for the next little bit.

Had a bit of a SE surge to it the last few scans, it may be near an outflow boundary from the earlier storms now.

I just noticed the supercell composite parameter is "50" across NW Texas, heh

[B-Rent]

Super heavy rain here with the passage of the front of that storm complex. Very little wind which was kind of surprising. I still hate storms.

I'm still waking up, and just browsing here first, but looks like that sigtor ramps down real close to Joplin. Hows the enviroment look there tonight?

[dan11295]

Seems to be very little ongoing convection atm within the risk area outside of the complex now pushing E of Tulsa. Anything else expected to fire prior to main initiation later this afternoon? I know the NAM shows some stuff in N OK around 15z but we are getting into nowcast range at the point.

[JoMo]

I'm still waking up, and just browsing here first, but looks like that sigtor ramps down real close to Joplin. Hows the enviroment look there tonight?

On the edge of the moderate risk. I'm hoping nothing forms this afternoon. 06z NAM is forming storms ahead of the cold front this evening, but they kind of fall apart before reaching here. Then storms form along the cold front and arrive tomorrow morning. We'll see what happens.