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Feb 22nd-24th Severe Thread


andyhb

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0153

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0949 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...GA...WCNTRL SC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 35...

VALID 241549Z - 241645Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 35 CONTINUES.

A NARROW ZONE OF STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING...ROUGHLY 50-75MI

WIDE...HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...NEWD INTO CNTRL GA

BENEATH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING

ALONG THIS CORRIDOR THOUGH LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW HAS VEERED

SOMEWHAT. THIS HEATING WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE INTO A MORE UNSTABLE

ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSE UPDRAFTS.

LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN

INTENSITY ALONG THE SURGING COLD FRONT AS IT CATCHES UP TO THE

PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION OVER AL. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE COULD EASILY

ENCOURAGE STRENGTHENING AND THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR OF

STRONGER HEATING. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW THE BAND OF

SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE FL

PANHANDLE WILL EVOLVE. LATEST THINKING IS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE

MORE CONCENTRATED/INTENSE ALONG THE SURGING COLD FRONT.

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post-6398-0-58448400-1330100440.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0154

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1010 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SC...SRN NC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 35...

VALID 241610Z - 241715Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 35 CONTINUES.

NEWD EXTENSION OF PRE-FRONTAL TSTM BAND IS EXPANDING ACROSS SC

TOWARD SRN NC. ALONG THIS BAND INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE INTENSIFYING

WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO A FEW

NE-SW LINE SEGMENTS HAVE EVOLVED AND THESE SEGMENTS MAY BECOME MORE

EFFICIENT WIND PRODUCERS IF THEY CAN MAINTAIN A MORE PERPENDICULAR

ORIENTATION TO MEAN FLOW. GIVEN THEIR FAST MOVEMENT THE LEADING

ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST OF WW35 INTO PORTIONS OF SERN SC/NC WITHIN

THE HOUR. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

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Nasty looking storm west of Troy, AL right now. Not seeing much on velocity however. Straight line winds are pretty high though.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL

1034 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 1115 AM CST

* AT 1029 AM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE

THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM

WAS LOCATED NEAR BRADLEYTON...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF LUVERNE...AND

MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

TROY...ANSLEY...TROY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...TROY UNIVERSITY...

ANTIOCH...LINWOOD...BANKS...ORION...MOSSY GROVE AND SANDFIELD.

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Storms barely missed me- typical. .04 and a rumble of thunder, cold front just zipped by. Looks ominous for a big area east of here- should be a few nasty storms in the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic.

Same up here but...no thunder and not a single drop from the front. Oh well...time to get cold.

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC

1228 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

RICHMOND COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA

SOUTHEASTERN COLUMBIA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA

SOUTHEASTERN EDGEFIELD COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA

NORTHERN AIKEN COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 100 PM EST

* AT 1225 PM EST...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE

OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS

LOCATED NEAR GROVETOWN...AND MOVING EAST AT 70 MPH. THIS STORM HAS

TAKEN DOWN SOME TREES IN MCDUFFIE COUNTY.

* SOME COMMUNITIES IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE MARTINEZ...

GROVETOWN...FORT GORDON...EVANS...AUGUSTA...NORTH AUGUSTA...

CLEARWATER...BELVEDERE...AIKEN AND GLOVERVILLE

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Per the SPC:

THE THREAT FOR SVR STORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NERN SC...CNTRL/ERN

NC...ERN VA...AND SRN MD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND A TORNADO WATCH

WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z.

A WARM/UNSTABLE SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD TOWARD NRN

VA AND SRN MD THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY

CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND

INCREASING PRE-FRONTAL LARGE-SCALE ASCENT -- INDICATED BY SFC

PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 2 MB PER 2 HRS -- WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT

CONVECTION BOTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A VERY STRONG

MID-LEVEL JET CORE CROSSING THE REGION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EFFECTIVE

BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES EXCEEDING 60 KT...WHICH WILL PROMOTE BANDS AND

CLUSTERS OF FAST-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING

WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. WITH 0-1-KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF

30-45 KT...TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN ASSOCIATION

WITH ANY LEWP PATTERNS AND CONVECTION WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT

WHERE SFC WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE BACKED RELATIVE TO THE WLY FLOW

ALOFT. UNCERTAINTY IN THE NRN EXTENT OF THE UNSTABLE SECTOR

EXISTS...AS WELL AS THE IMPACT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER CNTRL/ERN NC

AND NERN SC. HOWEVER...IN BOTH INSTANCES...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED

TO BE SUFFICIENT...GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT...SUCH

THAT A SVR/TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY EVOLVE.

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Gettin' ready for the eastern Carolinas this afternoon:

A VERY STRONG

MID-LEVEL JET CORE CROSSING THE REGION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EFFECTIVE

BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES EXCEEDING 60 KT...WHICH WILL PROMOTE BANDS AND

CLUSTERS OF FAST-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING

WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. WITH 0-1-KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF

30-45 KT...TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN ASSOCIATION

WITH ANY LEWP PATTERNS AND CONVECTION WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT

WHERE SFC WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE BACKED RELATIVE TO THE WLY FLOW

ALOFT.

post-1217-0-44857800-1330105886.gif

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Batten down the hatches Buckeyefan:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC

107 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHERN LEXINGTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA

NORTHWESTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 145 PM EST

* AT 105 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 12 MILES

SOUTHWEST OF GASTON...OR ABOUT 13 MILES SOUTH OF RED BANK...MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

GASTON...SOUTH CONGAREE...PINE RIDGE AND CAYCE

post-2167-0-22734500-1330107181.png

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Tornado Wath is up:

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 38

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

120 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

TORNADO WATCH 38 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EST FOR THE

FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NCC001-007-013-015-017-019-029-031-037-041-047-049-051-053-055-

057-061-063-065-067-069-073-077-079-081-083-085-091-093-095-101-

103-105-107-117-123-125-127-129-131-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-

147-151-153-155-163-165-167-177-181-183-185-187-191-195-

250100-

/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0038.120224T1820Z-120225T0100Z/

NC

. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALAMANCE ANSON BEAUFORT

BERTIE BLADEN BRUNSWICK

CAMDEN CARTERET CHATHAM

CHOWAN COLUMBUS CRAVEN

CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE

DAVIDSON DUPLIN DURHAM

EDGECOMBE FORSYTH FRANKLIN

GATES GRANVILLE GREENE

GUILFORD HALIFAX HARNETT

HERTFORD HOKE HYDE

JOHNSTON JONES LEE

LENOIR MARTIN MONTGOMERY

MOORE NASH NEW HANOVER

NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW ORANGE

PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PENDER

PERQUIMANS PERSON PITT

RANDOLPH RICHMOND ROBESON

SAMPSON SCOTLAND STANLY

TYRRELL VANCE WAKE

WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE

WILSON

$$

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TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 38

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

120 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

TORNADO WATCH 38 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EST FOR THE

FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

VAC001-003-007-025-033-036-041-047-049-053-057-065-073-075-079-

081-085-087-093-095-097-099-101-103-109-111-113-115-117-119-125-

127-131-133-135-137-145-147-149-159-175-177-179-181-183-193-199-

540-550-570-595-620-630-650-670-700-710-730-735-740-760-800-810-

830-250100-

/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0038.120224T1820Z-120225T0100Z/

VA

. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ACCOMACK ALBEMARLE AMELIA

BRUNSWICK CAROLINE CHARLES CITY

CHESTERFIELD CULPEPER CUMBERLAND

DINWIDDIE ESSEX FLUVANNA

GLOUCESTER GOOCHLAND GREENE

GREENSVILLE HANOVER HENRICO

ISLE OF WIGHT JAMES CITY KING AND QUEEN

KING GEORGE KING WILLIAM LANCASTER

LOUISA LUNENBURG MADISON

MATHEWS MECKLENBURG MIDDLESEX

NELSON NEW KENT NORTHAMPTON

NORTHUMBERLAND NOTTOWAY ORANGE

POWHATAN PRINCE EDWARD PRINCE GEORGE

RICHMOND SOUTHAMPTON SPOTSYLVANIA

STAFFORD SURRY SUSSEX

WESTMORELAND YORK

VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

CHARLOTTESVILLE CHESAPEAKE COLONIAL HEIGHTS

EMPORIA FRANKLIN FREDERICKSBURG

HAMPTON HOPEWELL NEWPORT NEWS

NORFOLK PETERSBURG POQUOSON

PORTSMOUTH RICHMOND SUFFOLK

VIRGINIA BEACH WILLIAMSBURG

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 38

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

120 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

TORNADO WATCH 38 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EST FOR THE

FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MDC009-017-019-037-039-045-047-250100-

/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0038.120224T1820Z-120225T0100Z/

MD

. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CALVERT CHARLES DORCHESTER

SOMERSET ST. MARYS WICOMICO

WORCESTER

$$

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This storm looks dangerous on velocity.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL

128 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHEASTERN COLQUITT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...

NORTHWESTERN COOK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 200 PM EST

* AT 126 PM EST...A DEVELOPING TORNADO HAS BEEN DETECTED BY THE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 6 MILES NORTH OF MOULTRIE...OR NEAR NEW

ELM...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

NORMAN PARK AND LENOX

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Batten down the hatches Buckeyefan:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC

107 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHERN LEXINGTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA

NORTHWESTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 145 PM EST

* AT 105 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 12 MILES

SOUTHWEST OF GASTON...OR ABOUT 13 MILES SOUTH OF RED BANK...MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

GASTON...SOUTH CONGAREE...PINE RIDGE AND CAYCE

I'm at lunch (at work) here in Orangeburg, my son is freaking at home with his G'ma. Could someone please post a GR vel shot of the area as I'm getting reports that one has been spotted between Gaston and Swansea. TIA!

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I'm at lunch (at work) here in Orangeburg, my son is freaking at home with his G'ma. Could someone please post a GR vel shot of the area as I'm getting reports that one has been spotted between Gaston and Swansea. TIA!

You mean the one that went south of Columbia earlier or the new warning just issued?

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