Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Thankfully I'm just a scientist here. LOL. we'll see how this evolves today. given the long-wave configuration and all available guidance...seems this one has always had a better shot at grazing/missing than barreling up the coast. most have really kept expectations in check though anyway. better than we normally do, actually. LOL. that might be winter 2011/12 showing itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 People can't watch/discuss models and storms for the joy of it, regardless of outcome? Have you read anything tip has said? It's kind of clear a lot of people cannot. We are getting to the point of "it puts the lotion on" if we go another month without a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 People can't watch/discuss models and storms for the joy of it, regardless of outcome? Joy?lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 you shouldn't get emotionally invested in the weather. Believe me, I'm not - It's really an issue with ad nauseam. As a Meteorologist there always going to be some native draw to check things out and dabble in the arts of prognostics, or just pay respects to the wonderments out there. There is no purpose to either right now, and there has not been for ...months as far as that goes. It's not an emotional one; it's a cerebral one. You guys wanted your futility record; unfortunately, that comes with a price tag of pithy ennui - I think a marvelous elixir would be to flip the script and get warm season stuff going again. Just put a lot of distance between a season that succeeded in doing what no indicators suggested it should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Have you read anything tip has said? It's kind of clear a lot of people cannot. We are getting to the point of "it puts the lotion on" if we go another month without a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 i'm still waiting for this to evolve into a late capture that buries MBY. i've been hanging my hat on that type of event all season. running out of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It will suck once the inevitable is a certainty, but at least I have futility to fall back on this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 i'm still waiting for this to evolve into a late capture that buries MBY. i've been hanging my hat on that type of event all season. running out of time. Feb 99 still on the table. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 i'm still waiting for this to evolve into a late capture that buries MBY. i've been hanging my hat on that type of event all season. running out of time. Pattern favors us/you moreso. Has been that way for about a month now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 yes thank goodness we have futility to fall back on imagine sayiing that 5 months ago. lofl at how were coping now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GFS be going da wrong way. Less interaction through 24 hours, flatter in the north. Will take the last minute hook and ladder Phil was talking about.... Futility FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 We've definitely got some energy hanging back, but it looks through about 40 that things are just enough out of alignment...top 1/2 of the "trough" is further east than the bottom half by a good margin..that it's going to take some digging. It's not far off at 45.... there's enough lobes of energy being shot down into the US that maybe one of the last ones can do the trick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Regardless of the outcome, the timing on this is gradually getting slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Regardless of the outcome, the timing on this is gradually getting slower. It had too, GFS was on the fast side of the envelope from what I remember. But look at this...take away that vort over the Lakes and we've got 4 stacked almots to the main PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Ugh...I got sucked in again. It's beyond frustrating at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 That fooking vortmax over the Great Lakes is infuriating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I can't remember missing a storm because of this type of deal....a bunch of nicely aligned s/w's with one rogue s/w out in front. Get that to dump back a bit into the other one coming across from Iowa and it'll be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 the pattern is clearly getting to you JK i think most of us are numb to getting screw'd this year. never believed this was gonna happen. was more hopeful 24-36 hours ago....now it's ...hail mary time again in my mind. and it aint happenin although if we luck out and don't snow thru late april ....i guess we should wait 10 more days before putting futility record in books (may 9-10 1977) PVD got plasterd but boston got nada .5 slop....this year it would prolly (.5 slop) be enuf to keep us from getting futility lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well it's a little better in that some nrn stream vorticity gets infused into the srn stream, and ridging out in the Rockies is a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 so close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It's definitely better looking than 06z. Actually grazes the Cape with the deformation band. We gotta continue to try and get a better southern system with some more nrn stream injection into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yet so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 That fooking vortmax over the Great Lakes is infuriating. Which one? The one at 60h or 78h? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Which one? The one at 60h or 78h? The one at hr 60. Man this is so close..lol. I guess at least it came nw a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If we get that northern vortmax to get out ahead of the southern stream...could we get this to come NW? I see that it does get out ahead of the southern stream, but produces some hefty confluence over CNE as the storm is coming off the MA coast. If we get that confluence to weaken/further north...I think we'd be pretty happy with the result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 that's a good trend for MBY on that run western part of the comma head is actually over the cape for a while. if that closed just a hair earlier it would be a "big" event out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The one at hr 60. Man this is so close..lol. I guess at least it came nw a bit. Maybe we can get that follow up s/w to kick the 1st one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I feel like Dendrite usually does just waiting for that deform to be further north than modeled. Back of my mind says PD1 79 ut oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 the pattern is clearly getting to you JK i think most of us are numb to getting screw'd this year. never believed this was gonna happen. was more hopeful 24-36 hours ago....now it's ...hail mary time again in my mind. and it aint happenin LOL, GFS was really, really horrible with this storm. It's finally now on the same page as the other models, it's slowed way down. Light scrape to coastal areas, as good as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 hoping for more northern stream vorticity infusion and ridging so someone on the cape sees 3-4 inches of mashed potatos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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