Southeast February Mid/Long Range Discussion II

[CaryWx]

Your in a good as spot as any, if this phases and really hugs the coast NE you would think RIC would still do good, if it misses the phase and is OTS then nobody is going to get hit so what does it matter. If I could pick one spot to be in I would probably pick Richmond.

Yeah, we could use about a 100 mile SE sag on this whole system. (mby)

Not sure what I want to see on the 0z euro and GFS. Probably the euro to hold serve and the GFS to show development rather than ots, only much further south than the euro. Keep RDU in the blend area.

[burgertime]

FWIW hour 84 on the NAM has that shortwave much stronger than the 18z GFS had it.

[Poimen]

let the weeping and gnashing of teeth begin for the SE crew. For us snow lovers, this end of season tease might be too much punishment to bear if it does not produce.

[BristowWx]

From all my years of experience posting on these boards and following the models, I can tell you that the one thing I hate is an RIC bullseye 6 days out. It has happened before and never works out.

We're sort of outcasts here. Don't really fit in the MA thread nor this one. Here's hoping we all get in on the action though!

On the positive side, being in the bullseye gives you some latitude for a north or south shift. The way the gradient looks 50 mile south shift you still do well and the MA gets the shaft. For this event RIC looks pretty good from my perspective...until the next set of runs

[WeatherNC]

FWIW hour 84 on the NAM has that shortwave much stronger than the 18z GFS had it.

Almost identical to the 12z euro with that cutoff placement and strength in the south-west, good deal. Overall look at H5 looks similar to the euro, some small differences in the northern plains, NAM maybe a little slower with that energy, and also some small differences into BC. SE Canada looks very similar between the two, again, NAM @ 84 compared to the EC at 96.

[Jon]

One thing to point out, as we approach spring, the length of day is getting longer(+2.03 min each day as of today). Which means, the angle of the sun in relation to the ground is increasing. We have gained about a hour of daylight since the Winter Solstice. If snow happens during the day, ratios could be impacted by the sun.

Fair enough, but the sun angle argument is a little weak IMO unless it's March 1st or later. I don't know the states but with the dynamics of a storm that bombs off the coast in February will it matter all that much?

[packbacker]

Yeah, we could use about a 100 mile SE sag on this whole system. (mby)

Not sure what I want to see on the 0z euro and GFS. Probably the euro to hold serve and the GFS to show development rather than ots, only much further south than the euro. Keep RDU in the blend area.

I would settle for a storm of any kind with a weak HP of any strength over the lakes instead of a vort.

[burgertime]

Fair enough, but the sun angle argument is a little weak IMO unless it's March 1st or later. I don't know the states but with the dynamics of a storm that bombs off the coast in February will it matter all that much?

It seems to only matter in a heavy storm when melting the next day. If we do get a BIG storm this weekend the downside would be not having some bitter cold temps setting in and it sticking around for only a day or two. IRRC that Christmas snow stuck around for something like two weeks in spots!

[Bevo]

One thing to point out, as we approach spring, the length of day is getting longer(+2.03 min each day as of today). Which means, the angle of the sun in relation to the ground is increasing. We have gained about a hour of daylight since the Winter Solstice. If snow happens during the day, ratios could be impacted by the sun.

I'm not sure how much I buy into the "Sun Angle" dilemma (at least until late March). We've had too many good/great late February up to early/mid March snow events. Granted, the odds of significance increase with an overnight on-set. However,the Sun angle can be trumped if the ratios of POP are good and consistent enough IMO.

I think the bottom line with the upcoming system will be how much it can intensify to allow the weak mid/low levels to be usurped (regardless of a day or night arrival).

[packbacker]

Yeah, we could use about a 100 mile SE sag on this whole system. (mby)

Not sure what I want to see on the 0z euro and GFS. Probably the euro to hold serve and the GFS to show development rather than ots, only much further south than the euro. Keep RDU in the blend area.

Or a repeat of the Euro EPS control run from 12z today which was a foot of snow in RDU.

[WeatherNC]

Or a repeat of the Euro EPS control run from 12z today which was a foot of snow in RDU.

Pics or it did not happen...

[Poimen]

forgive my ignorance, but what is the EURO EPS controll run?

[WeatherNC]

Thanks Pac, I just called one of our Chiefs here in the east, asked him to look, and he verified. Would not go as far to say a hit for RDU in terms of winter storm, but very close. Certainly areas n and w of the triangle. Same basic deal he stated, <1002 west of SVH at 144, bombing off the NC coast at 156. This is the control for the ECMWF, eps, ensemble prediction system. Great stuff man, thanks for sharing. Not quite into the euro power range, normally 120hrs, but we are very close...

forgive my ignorance, but what is the EURO EPS controll run?

Best advice is to google it, but basically just an individual run amongst an ensemble, likely with very similar initial conditions to the op, run parallel to make sure it is not smoking bat crap for lack of a better analogy.

[packbacker]

Thanks Pac, I just called one of our Chiefs here in the east, asked him to look, and he verified. Would not go as far to say a hit for RDU in terms of winter storm, but very close. Certainly areas n and w of the triangle. Same basic deal he stated, <1002 west of SVH at 144, bombing off the NC coast at 156. This is the control for the ECMWF, eps, ensemble prediction system. Great stuff man, thanks for sharing. Not quite into the euro power range, normally 120hrs, but we are very close...

Thanks! I would like to see this track on Thursday/Friday, textbook for us.

[AirNelson39]

Fair enough, but the sun angle argument is a little weak IMO unless it's March 1st or later. I don't know the states but with the dynamics of a storm that bombs off the coast in February will it matter all that much?

Even after March 1st it doesn't matter, if the storm is big enough it doesn't matter, just means it will melt quicker in the following days but during the storm it's fair game. Remember the biggest accumulating snows historically have came in March. March 1960, March 1993, and prob several others those just stick out in my mind. Don't give up hope til after March 17th lol

[CaryWx]

Ready to see the 0z GFS...won't make the 0z euro I'm afraid

[okie333]

Alright, for us weenies, this is only going to increase the pain when/if this fizzles out :-) This is from the 12z Euro EPS Control run.

Yes I can see those maps too... funny though because my control panel says "REDISTRIBUTION PROHIBITED: This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts. ©2011 ECMWF"

[griteater]

Think I like the look of the NAM at 84. The closed low hanging back a bit should allow a little more cold air to filter in. Also, the big upstream kicker wave is in the same location south of Alaska at 84 when comparing the 00z NAM and 18z GFS....so, that should eject the stout closed low east.

[NCSNOW]

Thanks Pac, I just called one of our Chiefs here in the east, asked him to look, and he verified. Would not go as far to say a hit for RDU in terms of winter storm, but very close. Certainly areas n and w of the triangle. Same basic deal he stated, <1002 west of SVH at 144, bombing off the NC coast at 156. This is the control for the ECMWF, eps, ensemble prediction system. Great stuff man, thanks for sharing. Not quite into the euro power range, normally 120hrs, but we are very close...

+1 pack: Right on the perfect benchmark for MBY/Triad. Weather NC whats the ole rule of thumb: consecutive back to back euro runs inside 120 along with NAM in line with Euro hard to beat? Seems like back when we had winter weather to track these combos proved pretty reliable most of the time.

[packbacker]

Yes I can see those maps too... funny though because my control panel says "REDISTRIBUTION PROHIBITED: This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts. ©2011 ECMWF"

Thanks, didnt notice that. They are gone.

[griteater]

My understanding is that the control run is the same as the op run, but it is run at a lower resolution...data for the control run is not perturbed like the other individual ensemble members

[jburns]

+1 pack: Right on the perfect benchmark for MBY/Triad. Weather NC whats the ole rule of thumb: consecutive back to back euro runs inside 120 along with NAM in line with Euro hard to beat? Seems like back when we had winter weather to track these combos proved pretty reliable most of the time.

First system with real potential for our area this winter. Nice to see. Although I am still far from excited I am getting interested.

As a side note on FOX Van Denton, after being slammed for mentioning snow last week, made a point to say Sat through Tues would be quiet and sunny with highs in the 50s. Then he said, "Of course that could change tomorrow". A week ago he would have been all over the 12Z Euro. I kind of feel sorry for him.

[bingcrosbyb]

Pretty major changes between the 12z NAM and 00z NAM during same time period. 12z run @ 84HR isn't very good anyways, but much stronger 2 contour vort now @ 72HR 00z.

00z

http://mag.ncep.noaa...500_vort_ht.gif

12z

http://mag.ncep.noaa...500_vort_ht.gif

[WeatherNC]

+1 pack: Right on the perfect benchmark for MBY/Triad. Weather NC whats the ole rule of thumb: consecutive back to back euro runs inside 120 along with NAM in line with Euro hard to beat? Seems like back when we had winter weather to track these combos proved pretty reliable most of the time.

A couple Euro runs around 120hrs with good contintuiy, UKMET on board, and the NAM looking similar to the Euro around 72-84hrs, hard tandem to beat, and likely the best picture available of what will verify. Sure there will be some changes and the event will not unfold exactly as depicted 5 days out, but this almost always shows the middle of the guidance envelope.

[SN_Lover]

Fair enough, but the sun angle argument is a little weak IMO unless it's March 1st or later. I don't know the states but with the dynamics of a storm that bombs off the coast in February will it matter all that much?

Well I don't know if you can put a date on the current changing sun's angle. That makes no scientific sense. Snow ratios will be impacted regardless, especially as we get into the latter part of the month into next month as theta(angle) increases. You might see snow, but the increased radiation will put a hamper on the ratios. So instead of having a 10:1 ratio you might get like 9:1 ratio. But that's my guess, it might be significantly lower with the ground temperatures being really warm, hence the blooming flowers.

[NCSNOW]

First system with real potential for our area this winter. Nice to see. Although I am still far from excited I am getting interested.

As a side note on FOX Van Denton, after being slammed for mentioning snow last week, made a point to say Sat through Tues would be quiet and sunny with highs in the 50s. Then he said, "Of course that could change tomorrow". A week ago he would have been all over the 12Z Euro. I kind of feel sorry for him.

I'm with ya. My excitement is tempered but w/o a doubt this weekend has my interest for the simple fact the table/pattern looks set up in half way decent shape to produce a miller A storm across the deep south. Isn't edged in stone and certainly track/temps will be the next hurdle, but it is appearing more likely than not the slp/precip will be in the SE neighborhood. As for my man Van, it's ashame he has to dumb down just reporting possibilities to appease general public/Mgr's/competetiors. He is a great value to our area and like all mets not perfect. I'll never forget about 8-10 years ago, I beleive it was in December the models up until 24 hours where honking big snow 10+ for our area due to a phased storm that was progged to come together along the gulf coast. All the mets, Van included where forecasting 8-12 and Sunday morning I awoke to silky clouds and the sun trying to peek through. The phase was late and didnt occur until OTS. I can't recite the exact date, but if you ever run across him he can and says that was the biggest bust he's ever had. Of course everyone else including NWS with warnings out busted as well. Just goes to show how difficult forecasting is.

[beanskip]

0z GFS -- 500 mb low keeps a closed contour at 84 hours -- had opened up on 18z run at 90 hours. Big northern stream low is different -- flatter shape, but further south....

[Marion_NC_WX]

0z GFS through 96 stronger with s/w...actually has a contour closed off...

[beanskip]

Finally opens up at 99 hours -- holds on to closed contour a half day longer than 18z run.

[WeatherNC]

Already big changes on the GFS compared to previous runs, likely to be a good run for someone based on everything through 96hrs, southern stream still closed off at 500mb entering W TX, northern stream energy looks much better, energy more consolidated with the vortex north of the great lakes, rather than in the central plains to MS river Valley, weak vort diving into MT...