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January 22-23 Potential Severe Weather


Hoosier

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00z NAM brings MUCAPE of around 500 J/kg into Ohio late Sunday/early Monday while the GFS is less. NAM appears to be on the quick side with other models being slower. Both models struggle to get 50 degree dewpoints up to I-70 but this could very well be underdone given model tendency to underestimate moisture return with strong flow fields and especially since we have a reservoir of pretty decent moisture in the south.

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heh, I just noticed that SPC amended the day 3 outlook this afternoon to include a slight risk area.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0136 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2012

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER

MS/OH VALLEYS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF STATES...

AMENDED FOR ADDITION OF SLIGHT RISK AREA

...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...

20/12Z NAM GUIDANCE HAS NOW BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF

WHICH HAVE MORE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED A MORE INTENSE AND LOWER

LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEGATIVELY

TILTED ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO OH VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT

INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS OUTLOOK...COLD FRONT

WHICH WILL MOVE INTO GULF COAST REGION DURING THE D1/D2 PERIOD WILL

LIKELY WEAKEN...RESULTING IN THE MAINTENANCE OF A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR

MASS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SHELF WATERS.

GIVEN THE MORE SRN TRACK OF THE STRONG MIDLEVEL TROUGH...CONFIDENCE

IS INCREASING THAT THE NWD-RETURNING WARM SECTOR WILL COINCIDE WITH

STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT

AND VERTICAL SHEAR...AND A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK APPEARS WARRANTED

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS

WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS WITH SUPERCELLS AND LINE

SEGMENTS FORMING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

..MEAD/GOSS.. 01/20/2012

day3prob_20120120_0830_prt.gif

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Although the best severe threat looks to be south, it is a little strange to sit here at 18 degrees with several inches of snowpack and be looking at models and even thinking that there could be something not far away come Sunday night. Helps keep the skills fresh I guess lol

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Although the best severe threat looks to be south, it is a little strange to sit here at 18 degrees with several inches of snowpack and be looking at models and even thinking that there could be something not far away come Sunday night. Helps keep the skills fresh I guess lol

Yeah I have never seen a situation where you go from teens to potential severe in 48-60 hours, maybe 4-5 days sure.

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Well, I think we'll officially turn this into the severe thread since the winter aspect doesn't look like much.

SPC mentions a possible upgrade to moderate risk in some areas especially south/west.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

   1130 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2012

  

   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

  

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER AND

   MIDDLE MS VALLEY TO OH/TN VALLEYS...

  

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY OVER

   THE CONUS. AN UPPER TROUGH /AND ASSOCIATED STRONG MID-UPPER JET/ NOW

   OVER THE CONUS WEST COAST WILL REACH THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...AND

   EVENTUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT TOWARD THE MIDDLE/UPPER

   MS RIVER VALLEY AND MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A

   CONSIDERABLE FACTOR IN TERMS OF SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL

   ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. FARTHER WEST...A SECONDARY

   UPPER TROUGH/STRONG JET ALOFT WILL REACH THE WEST COAST BY EARLY

   MONDAY.

...OH VALLEY...

   FARTHER NORTH...THE EXACT DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND

   DESTABILIZATION IS INHERENTLY MORE QUESTIONABLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN

   RECENT WINTER-TYPE PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST

   WHICH PARTIALLY COINCIDES WITH THE EXPECTED SURFACE LOW TRACK/BRUNT

   OF DPVA AS THE UPPER SYSTEM EVENTUALLY TAKES ON A MORE NEGATIVE

   TILT. THAT SAID...A ROBUST WIND FIELD/LATE NIGHT DEEPENING PHASE OF

   THE CYCLONE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A RESPECTABLE THREAT FOR WIND

   DAMAGE/PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES EVEN WHERE NEAR-SURFACE INSTABILITY

   IS SCANT ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY.

day2probotlk_20120121_1730_any_prt.gif

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