Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Interesting fact I found out this morning. The last time a moderate risk was issued for Indiana in a January was January 29, 2008. Nice find. Two-three days later (Jan 31-Feb 1, 2008), a winter storm came through and dropped 6.5" of snow on LAF. That winter truly rocked with the ups and downs. Should be an interesting night tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 New day one from SPC just issued. Looks like they extended the 5% tornado probs north, now up to LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 New day one from SPC just issued. Looks like they extended the 5% tornado probs north, now up to LAF. Wow, that's incredible. You guys are still below freezing right now too. Gonna be interesting to watch. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Wow, that's incredible. You guys are still below freezing right now too. Gonna be interesting to watch. Good luck! It is incredible. Hard to imagine looking outside right now at all of the snow pack. This is starting to climb the ranks of my favorite 12 days of weather ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Interesting fact I found out this morning. The last time a moderate risk was issued for Indiana in a January was January 29, 2008. I will always remember that night, very fast moving QLCS came through while I was at work. Me and a few coworkers were watching it move in and we saw transformers blowing way off in the distance. I was on the NE side of Indy and a brief tornado spun up and tracked through the area. Lots of trees, powerlines and roofs were damaged. Then an hour after it started snowing . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Good news- Bad news or vice-versa LMK Forecast Update The best instability axis will be west of I 65 this evening with storms becoming more elevated the further east they go tonight. Therefore, areas with the greatest threat of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be west of I 65. That being said, a severe threat will likely exist all the way to our eastern CWA border, with damaging winds being the main threat. Overall, instability will be lacking however will likely be made up for with strong ascent from negatively tilted trough, left exit region of a 100-120 knot upper level jet, and forcing along the cold front itself. Strong speed shear with a 70 knot low level jet, along with sizable directional shear will result in the possibility of supercells embedded in the line of storms as well as bowing segments. Isolated tornadoes will be possible with any supercellular structure or mesovortice. It should be noted that some models are putting 0-3 km storm relative helicity in around 1000 m2/s2 range! The above hazards are not a foregone conclusion, however. First of all, low level cold air that has been trapped underneath a strong inversion has been and will continue to be stubborn through the afternoon hours. This already has warm/moist return flow running behind schedule. The longer the pressure gradient takes to tighten, and resulting surface winds begin to mix away at the inversion the slower we begin to destabilize the lower atmosphere. Forecast soundings have been consistent in showing a strong inversion lasting even into tonight and it is questionable whether or not strong winds aloft will be able to be realized at the surface. Will have to watch low level temp/moisture return closely through the afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center does have areas west of I -65 in a categorical moderate risk mainly for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 hard to believe that at 33 right now we have a pretty decent shot at severe thunderstorms tonight, this is just like Monday was, super cold in the morning, by the afternoon it was in the mid 50's, and overnight it was like 62! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 hard to believe that at 33 right now we have a pretty decent shot at severe thunderstorms tonight, this is just like Monday was, super cold in the morning, by the afternoon it was in the mid 50's, and overnight it was like 62! Sounds like our weather, except this year it has been pretty boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 Well this is a first for me. 6" of snow to start the day and a day 1 slight risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 From my 0z run.. 5z 2-7z Hey blue, thanks for the post. Where did you get those images(what model) is it the WRF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 just crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 Wow, that's incredible. You guys are still below freezing right now too. Gonna be interesting to watch. Good luck! Just made it to freezing. Rate of snow melt obviously a wildcard but I think we have a good shot at getting into the low/mid 50's after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Like the chances here for storms around midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 This one is going to be nasty, the shear values are off the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Hey blue, thanks for the post. Where did you get those images(what model) is it the WRF? Yep, it is the WRF that I've been running myself. Like the chances here for storms around midnight Wow, that is incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Uh oh...not good. Long lived, nighttime flying QLCS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Looks like a line with embedded supercells is the most likely storm mode. SPC WRF is showing some impressive updraft helicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 from LOT AS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT...THESE LOOK BETTER FURTHER NORTH IN IL AND IN BASED ON 12Z DATA. THE UPPER LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS PER WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS WILL SWING TO NEGATIVELY TILED TONIGHT...WITH DRY SLOT EVOLUTION OVERRIDING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN INCREDIBLY STRONG AND ANOMALOUS LOW-LEVEL JET...UP TO 7 STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ON THE NAM FORECAST 850MB WIND...IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. CONVERGENCE FOR DEVELOPING UPDRAFTS WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND WITHIN THE STRONG WIND FIELD POTENTIALLY GUSTY STORMS COULD DEVELOP. THE NOT EVEN MARGINAL...BUT LOW...FORECAST INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO BE COMPENSATED FOR IN ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WITH 45 TO 55 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR UP INTO THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS CHICAGO. IN ADDITION...THE BORDER OF SNOW COVER FROM LAST WEEKS EVENTS IS BASICALLY JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS MAY NOT BE HANDLING THIS DISAPPEARING IN HIGH WET BULB AIR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND POTENTIALLY ALLOWING POSITIVE 0-3 KM CAPE TO GET AS FAR NORTH AS WATSEKA/FOWLER/RENSSELAER. HAVE INCREASED THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MENTIONED THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS TIME OF YEAR AND SIMPLY HAVING SUCH A ROBUST CHANCE IN WEATHER TYPE FROM TODAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 NAM has 75-80 kt 850 mb winds spreading into IL/IN/KY later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 NAM has 75-80 kt 850 mb winds spreading into IL/IN/KY later tonight. yikes... oh boy, something tells me that moderate risk may have to get expanded more to the NE then for the straight line wind threat.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 HRRR at the end of it's run Max 1hr reflectivity 850mb winds (!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 That is nasty...mean QLCS with big semi-discrete supercells on the southern end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 No matter what happens, its going to be awesome watching precip/storms explode between 0-6z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Won't take much to drag some of that high momentum air just off the surface down to the surface. There's gonna be widespread wind damage from this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Won't take much to drag some of that high momentum air just off the surface down to the surface. There's gonna be widespread wind damage from this setup. Not to mention the fact that the ground is overly saturated due to all of the snow/rain, so trees will topple pretty easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 Significant progress with moisture return in the past 12 hours. This should accelerate over the next 6-12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 The extreme nature of the LLJ is very impressive. Check out this ridiculous return in deep moisture in 18hrs... 12z this morning.. And 06z tonight, just 18hrs later! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 The extreme nature of the LLJ is very impressive. Check out this ridiculous return in deep moisture in 18hrs... 12z this morning.. And 06z tonight, just 18hrs later! That is...um...scary... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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