Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 It's your typical weak clipper. Probably 1-3" of warm advection snows from the lakes into Upstate NY and that dries up with only minor dustings further east until it gets some ocean juice in the eastern half of NE... BOX disagrees with this violently CONFIDENCE WANES AND FEEL WARM AIR WILL IMPACT COASTAL LOCALES BOTH S/E TO ALLOW THE TRANSITION OF EXPECT SNOW OVER TO RAIN. BE INTERESTING IF A WARM WEDGE OF AIR PRESSES INTO THE INTERIOR JUST ABOVE THE SFC. MDL SOUNDINGS SUBTLY HINT AT THIS. MAX TEMPS HOVER AROUND THE FRZG MARK...WITH LOCALES S/E OF I-95 AT OR ABOVE FRZG. CONSIDERING EVAP COOLING SHOULD DEWPOINTS REMAIN AT OR BELOW FRZG...HAVE KEPT MOST LOCATIONS AS ALL SNOW. MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A WINTER WX ADV FOR THE PD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Hopefully Phil posts his thoughts and accumulation ideas in this winter you just take the flakes and be happy i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Not a "true" Norlun, in my opinion. There were some previous runs of the GFS that kept the clipper on a more southerly track which threw back a Norlun-esque signal, but that has since morphed into a track further north and the precip extending into Maine now looks to be directly associated with the main low as opposed to a detached trough hanging back to the west/northwest. well you go boy with that met analysis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 BOX disagrees with this violently CONFIDENCE WANES AND FEEL WARM AIR WILL IMPACT COASTAL LOCALES BOTH S/E TO ALLOW THE TRANSITION OF EXPECT SNOW OVER TO RAIN. BE INTERESTING IF A WARM WEDGE OF AIR PRESSES INTO THE INTERIOR JUST ABOVE THE SFC. MDL SOUNDINGS SUBTLY HINT AT THIS. MAX TEMPS HOVER AROUND THE FRZG MARK...WITH LOCALES S/E OF I-95 AT OR ABOVE FRZG. CONSIDERING EVAP COOLING SHOULD DEWPOINTS REMAIN AT OR BELOW FRZG...HAVE KEPT MOST LOCATIONS AS ALL SNOW. MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A WINTER WX ADV FOR THE PD. They issued an advisory for a 1-2" forecast a week or two ago, I'm sure they'll do it for a 1-3" event too. Just because they are considering an advisory doesn't mean big snow. Also, how does anything in that discussion disagree with Logan11's 1-3" comment? They are talking about a possible transitioning to mixed precip or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 They issued an advisory for a 1-2" forecast a week or two ago, I'm sure they'll do it for a 1-3" event too. Just because they are considering an advisory doesn't mean big snow. Also, how does anything in that discussion disagree with Logan11's 1-3" comment? They are talking about a possible transitioning to mixed precip or rain. I didn't say it called for big snow..He was implying as was Bob there'd be flurries and dustings . The mix would be for the coast. Just offering a different perspective. Looking less likely for any signif. snowfalls..but we'll see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 climo for a clipper passing way N of NE with redevelopment a good distance NE of PVC is not too good for SNE...but doesn't mean we can't squeeze out a couple/few inches in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 gfs has an interesting evolution on thursday as it bends the flow in advance of the clipper winds turn onshore over eastern areas and it's actually spitting out some light snows over E MA from BOS down to the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 12z GFS ensembles seem to show a whole lot more than the Op at 72 hrs, actually looks like a widespread 3-6" deal on the ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 This is looking more and more like a ME threat. A little enhancement as the secondary develops overhead and out into Mass Bay followed by an inverted trough signature up into Cool Spruce land possible depending upon where that trough sets up. 3-6" type stuff up there. Negligible down here in SNE. Cobb data on GFS is 1-2 in SNE then 5-7 on Sat, nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Cobb data on GFS is 1-2 in SNE then 5-7 on Sat, nice That's a little more realistic imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 That's a little more realistic imo. Caveat GFS ENS pretty juicy, cold airmass, could be potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Even though the primary clipper is N of SNE almost seems Miller B ish, something to watch, at any rate, best week of winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Would like to see the secondary develop a little sooner on thurs as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Thurs is looking rather meh for SNE on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Would like to see the secondary develop a little sooner on thurs as we get closer I think that's the issue. I don't see what would make it develop sooner, though. Maybe the EC will give us a sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 euro has a decent S of the pike event on saturday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I think that's the issue. I don't see what would make it develop sooner, though. Maybe the EC will give us a sense. Its really you guys need this to track further south undernath SNE, It tracks right over your head, Saturday looks better down your way though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 euro has a decent S of the pike event on saturday.... Good to hear...trending N but not as far N as the goofus. GGEM was north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 euro has a decent S of the pike event on saturday.... What;s it got for us Thursday nite 1-2 inches still? What type of qpf on Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 euro has a decent S of the pike event on saturday.... Congrats. I guess I won't have to worry about my mother-in-law/babysitter trying to clear the drive while I'm basking in the tropical heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 the saturday event is nothing... weak moisture starved system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 What;s it got for us Thursday nite 1-2 inches still? What type of qpf on Saturday? under a tench of an inch liquid thursday night and around .25" liquid saturday zzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 What;s it got for us Thursday nite 1-2 inches still? What type of qpf on Saturday? thur pm doesn't look like much 1-2 *maybe* qpf for saturday is fairly light...nothing like the GFS...probably .25 to .3" qpf...maybe low end advisory type stuff verbatim...would briefly mix or flip along the south coast before tapering down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Congrats. I guess I won't have to worry about my mother-in-law/babysitter trying to clear the drive while I'm basking in the tropical heat. LOL, plenty of time to trend this north. Gfs was 6" for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 under a tench of an inch liquid thursday night and around .25" liquid saturday zzzzz you seem like a very unhappy person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Additional signal out around 108 hour or so... Interesting differences with the Euro (12z) signaling what looks like an icing event with saturable RH at both 700 and 850mb levels, polar high damming in from the NNE, and a waves rippling out along a PB situated roughly alone LI latitudes. GFS on the other hand has middlin sized snow event. I guess we take 'em one at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 under a tench of an inch liquid thursday night and around .25" liquid saturday zzzzz Spoony! are you really a MET or just play one on American? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 you seem like a very unhappy person. i'm not a snow monger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 you seem like a very unhappy person. Bummed all of his OT threads garnish one or two posts. No big deal. zzzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 1-2 and 3-6 on the Euro, nice. Great week of winter in a year without. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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