Fozz Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 march is a pipedream March can work in Nina years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 march is a pipedream Early march is still like late February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2012 Author Share Posted January 13, 2012 Early march is still like late February only the first 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Funny how our guest Hm disappeared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 A cold pattern was on the way at this point in 2007 and 2005. This year? Naso much. Oh, I wasn't suggesting that our winter will do the 05 or 07 flip. The post was just stating what happened in the past 10 seasons. In any case, 01/02 had more opportunities across the I-95 corridor up through this point. The New Year's storm got into St. Mary's county. And not that anyone here cares, but Boston had a decent early December storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2012 Author Share Posted January 13, 2012 March can work in Nina years. it can but it's still more likely not to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 04 and 06 were ninos that were screaming pattern change by this point and we got clippers in both a week to 10 days later.... 01-02 had the snow to rain event that wasn't well forecast in advance...that is certainly a possibility in the next few weeks... 08-09 was cold by this point so I don't think we bitched as much?....or maybe we did, but 40N was getting snow so it wasnt board-wide.... I still think I am good for 6-8"+....I don't think we'll get shutout the rest of the way....we still have 2 months to produce.... ..although I am pretty sure LWX pulled the trigger with a WSW that did not verify. Still an underperformer in the end.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 march is a pipedream March is a usually a 1 in 4 chance to get a good metro wide event of 1-2" or more and 1 in 3 that part of the metro gets something ok....I certainly wouldnt bank on it, but it isn't a pipedream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 My friend just snapped this in the Bucktown/Wicker Park neighborhood of Chicago.....she has about 4" and -SN should continue much of the night....That is all I want....a 4" snowstorm to blanket the landscape and a few days to walk around in it before it melts....That is not asking too much....This winter sucks ass . you greedy SOB!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 only the first 2 days. March will rock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2012 Author Share Posted January 13, 2012 March is a usually a 1 in 4 chance to get a good metro wide event of 1-2" or more and 1 in 3 that part of the metro gets something ok....I certainly wouldnt bank on it, but it isn't a pipedream the last 15 seasons have not been that good at DCA at least. i certainly would not put any hopes in march if winter sucks till then despite 09. i personally won't get that excited about a T-.5" event. in OCT it's easier to not be IMBY if the hills get snow and we dont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Funny how our guest Hm disappeared Who cares, the forecast you issued is verifying better than his so far this year. Your Thanksgiving winter cancel was dead on for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 the last 15 seasons have not been that good at DCA at least. i certainly would not put any hopes in march if winter sucks till then despite 09. i personally won't get that excited about a T-.5" event. in OCT it's easier to not be IMBY if the hills get snow and we dont. in 2005, 2007, 2009, I got at least one decent event....I think it depends on the pattern as we enter...we will probably know the last week of February if we have a chance those 1st 2 weeks....after 3/15 our chances of an 1"+ event are pretty slim here in the city....very slim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 the last 15 seasons have not been that good at DCA at least. i certainly would not put any hopes in march if winter sucks till then despite 09. i personally won't get that excited about a T-.5" event. in OCT it's easier to not be IMBY if the hills get snow and we dont. Uh-- they've actually been exactly what he said, though- about 1 out of 4 (99, 05, 07, 09 makes 4 out of 15). Yes, March averages have gone down while December's have gone up. But, still, we have had two decent early March periods in two fairly recent Nina's. Edited: Actually those two periods were both pretty spectacular-- '99 was a dream anywhere with elevation (15"+ in the NW suburbs, even fairly closeby), and of course '09 had a 5-7" snowstorm areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2012 Author Share Posted January 13, 2012 Uh-- they've actually been exactly what he said, though- about 1 out of 4 (99, 05, 07, 09 makes 4 out of 15). Yes, March averages have gone down while December's have gone up. But, still, we have had two decent early March periods in two fairly recent Nina's. Edited: Actually those two periods were both pretty spectacular-- '99 was a dream anywhere with elevation (15"+ in the NW suburbs, even fairly closeby), and of course '09 had a 5-7" snowstorm areawide. I wasn't saying he was wrong. I assume we can all look at the numbers and calculate the odds. I don't think 25% chance is that good personally. Maybe pipe dream was wrong.. I should have said long shot. There were also a few Ninas that gave us nothing or very little in there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2012 Author Share Posted January 13, 2012 d 12-18 euro weekly: https://www.facebook...&type=1 that's about as horrible as it gets if you like winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I wasn't saying he was wrong. I assume we can all look at the numbers and calculate the odds. I don't think 25% chance is that good personally. Maybe pipe dream was wrong.. I should have said long shot. There were also a few Ninas that gave us nothing or very little in there too. Oh, ok. I actually thought you were, the way that you responded to his quote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2012 Author Share Posted January 13, 2012 Oh, ok. I actually thought you were, the way that you responded to his quote. it was independent of his figures.. i was just saying they have not been that good. only 3 of them saw more than 1" of snow at DCA. that's less than every 15 yr period prior going back at least several if not all. i guess the .8 yr might be a 1.3 here or something.. and it would be nice to watch fall but by march i personally could not care less about winter. if it's going to snow at that point if it's less than 09 it's not worth it to me.... i realize that's different than some of the heartiest snow lovers here and that the 'burbs have a better shot by at least a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 it was independent of his figures.. i was just saying they have not been that good. only 3 of them saw more than 1" of snow at DCA. that's less than every 15 yr period prior going back at least several if not all. i guess the .8 yr might be a 1.3 here or something.. and it would be nice to watch fall but by march i personally could not care less about winter. if it's going to snow at that point if it's less than 09 it's not worth it to me.... i realize that's different than some of the heartiest snow lovers here and that the 'burbs have a better shot by at least a little. DCA is a bad place to measure snow in march. But we are definitely at a disadvantage here as well vs the burbs. There are enough ninas with memorable events that I think it is worth keeping an eye on. I kind of think it would be fitting to get a big elevation climo storm in mid or late march to bookend the season with little in between. I still think we can get a better version of 1/9 sometime soon. Something weak advecting into a marginal or stale air mass. Perhaps I am being overly optimistic but 2001-02 didn't have as much cold air close by in Canada IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 There is still 28 days in feb and 10 days in march to get one 4 inch snowstorm Don't forget about Feb. 29. It could be epic! MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2012 Author Share Posted January 13, 2012 DCA is a bad place to measure snow in march. But we are definitely at a disadvantage here as well vs the burbs. There are enough ninas with memorable events that I think it is worth keeping an eye on. I kind of think it would be fitting to get a big elevation climo storm in mid or late march to bookend the season with little in between. I still think we can get a better version of 1/9 sometime soon. Something weak advecting into a marginal or stale air mass. Perhaps I am being overly optimistic but 2001-02 didn't have as much cold air close by in Canada IIRC. something like the other day seems like our best shot for now.. you can't totally write it (winter) off with cold air not terribly far off even if it's warm. mod ninas in particular have more big snow in march than other months it seems. the overall sample is so small though im not sure how much confidence can be drawn from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 DCA is a bad place to measure snow in march. But we are definitely at a disadvantage here as well vs the burbs. There are enough ninas with memorable events that I think it is worth keeping an eye on. I kind of think it would be fitting to get a big elevation climo storm in mid or late march to bookend the season with little in between. I still think we can get a better version of 1/9 sometime soon. Something weak advecting into a marginal or stale air mass. Perhaps I am being overly optimistic but 2001-02 didn't have as much cold air close by in Canada IIRC. We've discussed 3/76 as being a particularly bad storm in terms of gradient across the area. I'm looking over the past decades and remembering that the 90's was actually a great March decade: 1990-if you don't care about road accumulations, 1993, 1994, 1996, 1999. If you were a school-child in that decade, you would have thought that early March was definitely still in the game for big winter storms. (3/94, though it changed to rain/drizzle, is definitely a candidate for the "Underrated" category- dynamic low that gave most of the area the biggest snowfall of the season) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 We've discussed 3/76 as being a particularly bad storm in terms of gradient across the area. I'm looking over the past decades and remembering that the 90's was actually a great March decade: 1990-if you don't care about road accumulations, 1993, 1994, 1996, 1999. If you were a school-child in that decade, you would have thought that early March was definitely still in the game for big winter storms. (3/94, though it changed to rain/drizzle, is definitely a candidate for the "Underrated" category- dynamic low that gave most of the area the biggest snowfall of the season) I was in Atlanta from 8/90 to 12/94. Fortunately I didn't miss too much though I was pissed about missing most of 93-94. I was fortunate to get 8" down there from march 93. I was home for the 2nd half of 91-92 so I caught the biggest storm that winter. And I was home for 12/28/93. But even though we got the wicked cold in Atlanta I was pissed about missing jan-mar 94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Yes we're in a new pattern with the cold air and polar vortex in central Canada. Unfortunately it is still not a good one for us. I think the 00z GFS shows a few flakes next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I was in Atlanta from 8/90 to 12/94. Fortunately I didn't miss too much though I was pissed about missing most of 93-94. I was fortunate to get 8" down there from march 93. I was home for the 2nd half of 91-92 so I caught the biggest storm that winter. And I was home for 12/28/93. But even though we got the wicked cold in Atlanta I was pissed about missing jan-mar 94. And that's a stretch that I am confident I will never see again in my lifetime. The pattern reset was in mid-February, when we finally had a break until the March bomb. But that 1/16-2/11 stretch was a surgically repetitive period with so many forecast busts that all went the same way- whether the forecast was for rain or snow. The worst negative bust that winter was for 2/10-11 to be a 6"+ snowstorm for our area instead of the pure sleet-storm that we got. All the other busts were freezing rain events that were supposed to turn over to rain. 1/28 highlights the wedge we can get when PHL goes into the 50's while our temp is falling through the 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 There is still 28 days in feb and 10 days in march to get one 4 inch snowstorm It is your lucky day JI, it is a leap year so there is 29 days in February. The extra day still won't help us but it gives you an extra day to cancel winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 The magnitude of the RNA trough out west and how much it retrograded really stinks....it makes it so we probably have to waste another 10 days getting rid of it and even then, if there is a stable vortex over AK, it makes for a very tough pattern. The one faint light of hope is that the NAO looks like it may want to start doing something other than being completely useless...even if its just mild ridging. Pop a transient PNA with it and you can always sneak a storm in there...ala Feb '06 or something like that...but it looks like it would be at least until early February and possibly later until that happens. For the rest of January, I think you just hope that you luck into a system at the right time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 The magnitude of the RNA trough out west and how much it retrograded really stinks....it makes it so we probably have to waste another 10 days getting rid of it and even then, if there is a stable vortex over AK, it makes for a very tough pattern. The one faint light of hope is that the NAO looks like it may want to start doing something other than being completely useless...even if its just mild ridging. Pop a transient PNA with it and you can always sneak a storm in there...ala Feb '06 or something like that...but it looks like it would be at least until early February and possibly later until that happens. For the rest of January, I think you just hope that you luck into a system at the right time. Thanks Will, i think we are all resigned to the fact that best case scenario we will not see any snow here until atleast February unless a miracle occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 The magnitude of the RNA trough out west and how much it retrograded really stinks....it makes it so we probably have to waste another 10 days getting rid of it and even then, if there is a stable vortex over AK, it makes for a very tough pattern. The one faint light of hope is that the NAO looks like it may want to start doing something other than being completely useless...even if its just mild ridging. Pop a transient PNA with it and you can always sneak a storm in there...ala Feb '06 or something like that...but it looks like it would be at least until early February and possibly later until that happens. For the rest of January, I think you just hope that you luck into a system at the right time. You guys can still get some overrunning events with the artic front stradeling 40N. It's going to be much harder down here but I think we can pull off a flake or maybe half a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Who cares, the forecast you issued is verifying better than his so far this year. Your Thanksgiving winter cancel was dead on for once. Funny how our guest Hm disappeared Hey I had the day off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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