burgertime Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Yuck verbatim 12z looked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Yuck verbatim 12z looked Have to think those guys at accuweather know what they are talking because the GFS just spit out storm after storm in the LR per this map...To me we just look seasonal, which isn't a terrible thing, a January 2010 redux would have sucked, I absolutely was miserable during that month of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Yuck verbatim 12z looked Toss another fail log on the fire.... Seriously the GFS looked very zonal with the SE being on the wrong side of the battleground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Looks like I will have to visit the in-laws in Michigan to see any snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Toss another fail log on the fire.... Seriously the GFS looked very zonal with the SE being on the wrong side of the battleground. Yep, well the good news this is a back to back La Nina, so 2012-2013 should be an El Nino, at least we got that going for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Looks like I will have to visit the in-laws in Michigan to see any snow Hank? If so, welcome! Yes, at least for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The worry with this is the retrograding of the Ak block as most of us know. Along with this comes the western trough and what we discussed yesterday. Some of the great mild winters had this set up occur. The early '90's sticks out here. I can recall severe cold dropping ino the west and plains and all across the Lakes that gradually shifted southward inititially and stall out over E. TN/WNC. The airmass once it made it over us was not super cold but, below freezing. The downside to it was that it produced mainly freezing rain as it was very shallow on it's se side. Within a few days, we were well above normal again as the block had retrograded. We desperately need a -NAO to pop. Another thing to note is , yeah, many times if the ao goes negative the nao follows. but, not always, unfortunately. As I recall, the winter of '93-94 featured that kind of config. actually, last nights GFS run showing the big KY snowstorm reminded me of that year; setup looked similar to the record one that occured there in Jan. '94.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I am starting to think that's what the pattern is going to be until spring. Oh well...you certainly have the liberty to do so. I personally do not feel inclined to play "Guess Which Hand I'm Holding The Snow In" with a moody atmosphere. If I have to accept something, I'd rather know what is being offered to me first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
19jpc Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Let's face it we are due for a mild winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Sad to see that I missed a good fantasy snowstorm on the 18z yesterday. Those are so much fun! I love making fantasy snowcream, fantasy snow balls and fantasy spin outs going down the road! With that said, I did enjoy watching the Tide win it's mythical national championship last night. Let's keep those fantasy storm rolling in! It only takes one to verify to make me happy! (Welcome back Jason!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Lol, looks dry the first week, then daily rain the next week. Best chance of verification? My guess is we have a weekend storm again by Thur. and gone again Fri. Don't much care, at this point, as long as my very near term rain comes through. One day at a time, killing the drought one rain drop at a time. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I really wish we could at least wait until this pattern change has the time to get underway before going into all this talk about cliff diving... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Have to think those guys at accuweather know what they are talking because the GFS just spit out storm after storm in the LR per this map...To me we just look seasonal, which isn't a terrible thing, a January 2010 redux would have sucked, I absolutely was miserable during that month of January. Looks like it. I'd be shocked since I think Henry M made the map above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 12Z Canadian has no snow for the southeast. it goes warm, wet, cold, dry, warmer, zonal. Zonal looks like the solution that keeps coming up in the med-long range, unfortunately with the zonal flow that keeps coming up we are just not close enough to the battleground to make use of the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSOWxWizard Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Hey don't get all depressed guys, your saving grace is coming. I'm having to head back to Mobile, AL for my last semester in undergrad. Been up in Atlanta for the past 5 weeks. The pattern is sure to flip when I get back down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Hey don't get all depressed guys, your saving grace is coming. I'm having to head back to Mobile, AL for my last semester in undergrad. Been up in Atlanta for the past 5 weeks. The pattern is sure to flip when I get back down there. Good!, we need your mojo!!! We need Jomo's mojo too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGaWxNerd Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I will do us all a favor and start planting for spring now. As soon as everything germinates, we will have frozen something falling from the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Personally, I'm in favor of a large volcano erupting and spewing clouds of ash... we'll cool off then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCMET Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Yeah...zonal flow is pretty much where the GFS Ensembles were headed after about 120 hours across most of the US and it pretty much stayed that way through the period... 12Z Canadian has no snow for the southeast. it goes warm, wet, cold, dry, warmer, zonal. Zonal looks like the solution that keeps coming up in the med-long range, unfortunately with the zonal flow that keeps coming up we are just not close enough to the battleground to make use of the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I see he makes the point that we will be past January (our snowiest monnth) without having seen any winter weather. Glad nobody attacked him for making the obvious and accurate observation. Allan Huffman sounds like he thinks winter is pretty much a fail for the rest of the month in his latest blog. Looks like we have to worry more about severe storms than snow. http://www.examiner...._alerts_article Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 None of this should be a surprise, the ensemble guidance has said all along we were likely not going to have a snow event in the SE- just a few rogue GFS runs which we really should not be using any bandwidth discussing, but desperate folks will grasp at any straw.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Personally, I'm in favor of a large volcano erupting and spewing clouds of ash... we'll cool off then! I'm less than 20 miles from MT. Apo a 10,000ft dormant stratovolcano. I'll go out there tomorrow with a sledge hammer and see if I can't wake it up for you guys. Probably have to wait until next Winter to get the effect, but I'll be back by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Oh well, there's always next winter to get excited about! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Guys, it's called a positive NAO. I don't care what meteorologist on this board or anywhere else tries to talk about this block or that, if you don't have a negative NAO block you are not going to get sustained southeastern US cold, and any winter weather threats will require perfect timing. I've observed time and time again when the realist on these boards get shunted for saying such as this, but it's reality so fire away. Coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Actually, here's a great statement: It is well documented how the state of the AO and NAO are correlated to go hand in hand with one another (supposedly a 0.83 correlation during the winter), so you wonder if the NAO will go negative next in response to the AO shooting negative. Then again, it should also be noted the AO has a strong interconnection with troposphere/stratosphere variability while the NAO is primarily confined to the troposphere. if we are to believe the ongoing warm waves in the stratosphere are assisting in the upcoming -AO signal, then perhaps the -NAO correlation does/will not apply in this instance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 If you look between about 192-300 hrs on the GFS, you will see strong high pressure building south and east from out of NW Canada toward the NE US. This, if true, will be a good setup to funnel low level cold into the east and SE. This is what I want to see if I'm going to seriously look for winter wx around here. Sure, the model doesn't show any specific winter threats here, but if we see high pressure building in as modeled and as active as the flow has been, I think this period will hold a much better chance for an event that what you see verbatim on the model output....certainly better than the winter thus far, which really isn't saying much. The upper air pattern isn't going to be ideal in the near future. Even so, I think our chance go up significantly for a period starting in a week or so. I'd be most concerned about an ice storm over snow, given the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Guys, it's called a positive NAO. I don't care what meteorologist on this board or anywhere else tries to talk about this block or that, if you don't have a negative NAO block you are not going to get sustained southeastern US cold, and any winter weather threats will require perfect timing. I've observed time and time again when the realist on these boards get shunted for saying such as this, but it's reality so fire away. So whats wrong with trying to find that perfect timing? That's all anyone has been doing, no one has said we have been in a prime winter pattern just that we have had some *opportunities* that consisted of perfect timing. No need to be Captain Obvious and Debbie Downer while we try to find us a winter storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCMET Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 If you have been hanging around reading any of the posts in this thread or the last one, this is exactly what I and others have been saying. Edit: And as Cheeznado below says, indicies aren't everything. That's why this is called Meteorology and not modelology or indiciology. Guys, it's called a positive NAO. I don't care what meteorologist on this board or anywhere else tries to talk about this block or that, if you don't have a negative NAO block you are not going to get sustained southeastern US cold, and any winter weather threats will require perfect timing. I've observed time and time again when the realist on these boards get shunted for saying such as this, but it's reality so fire away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Guys, it's called a positive NAO. I don't care what meteorologist on this board or anywhere else tries to talk about this block or that, if you don't have a negative NAO block you are not going to get sustained southeastern US cold, and any winter weather threats will require perfect timing. I've observed time and time again when the realist on these boards get shunted for saying such as this, but it's reality so fire away. This is making things too simple. If the AK block was a bit farther east and not going to retrograde we could easily have sustained cold and maybe snow here- as it is the new Euro now coming in has less than 540 thickness in north GA for about 3 days straight, that is a pretty good cold shot. Yes it would be better with a solid -NAO, but the atmosphere is more complicated than looking at only one factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 If the artic oscillation tanks as projected and the NAO doesn't dive with it before/around the latter part of January, we could be in trouble. This block should set things off and shake everything up. Could the NAO stay positive? I guess, just much more likely it goes negative. I am sure it seems like we have been watching a proposed change forever now, but it's still just Jan 10th. Many winters have had big snows from Jan 20th through February (and even into March) I guess I have lived long enough to be patient with the weather. It's going to do what it wants to do. There are a lot worse things in life than having a winter void of snow. That said, i still don't think this winter will be one where we have to worry about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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