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Southeast Mid/Long Range Discussion III


Rankin5150

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I am jumping back in the fray...FINALLY. I have been reading some of Roberts (Foothills) posts and it seem like this weekend/next week will be a bonus. Seems like after that timeframe, there is a good chance for some blocking action. We still have plenty of winter left...for sure!

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Just looked at last notes Euro. Interestingly the northern energy that drops down at hour 48 drops down at a great spot and how the GFS was doing it yesterday but the cutoff retrogrades back west so far it doesn't have a chance. So let's keep watching today, we need that cut off to not retrograde.

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Just looked at last notes Euro. Interestingly the northern energy that drops down at hour 48 drops down at a great spot and how the GFS was doing it yesterday but the cutoff retrogrades back west so far it doesn't have a chance. So let's keep watching today, we need that cut off to not retrograde.

Well that's the good look of the NAM it brings that cutoff into the baja heading due east....so if you got a blend of the Euro and NAM it might be game on. Should be interesting to see what the 12z NAM does.

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00z Euro has a very good look with how the high latitude blocking evolves (Foothills had a post on this in the other locked thread). It's showing southward movement of the NE Canada vortex, and it actually rotates it to the south of Hudson Bay (= cold high pressure entering the U.S. in N Dakota / Minnesota)...and it begins to form a noticeable ridge in the north atlantic. 06z GFS has a similar look, with general support from the Euro Ens mean as well. We're just going to have to see how the high latitude blocking evolves, but I remain optimistic.

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Big concerns about the location of the blocking near Alaska in the main med range discussion thread. Ensembles are sparking fears that the blocking retrogrades west quickly into Siberia bringing warmer than normal temps to the EC, while the West gets the stormy/cold weather. Don S. says closer to normal temps for the SE is a possibility even with the retrograde due to transient cold shots, but it remains to be seen. Very cold in the east is not on the table right now according to some other posters, the West seems to be beneficiaries of the blocking not the east. That said most of the posters feel that a -NAO would send the East coast into the icebox.

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Big concerns about the location of the blocking near Alaska in the main med range discussion thread. Ensembles are sparking fears that the blocking retrogrades west quickly into Siberia bringing warmer than normal temps to the EC, while the West gets the stormy/cold weather. Don S. says closer to normal temps for the SE is a possibility even with the retrograde due to transient cold shots, but it remains to be seen. Very cold in the east is not on the table right now according to some other posters, the West seems to be beneficiaries of the blocking not the east. That said most of the posters feel that a -NAO would send the East coast into the icebox.

To be fair, the icebox scenario comes with it's own peril, dryness. I don't want the motherload on top of me.

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Allan Huffman sounds like he thinks winter is pretty much a fail for the rest of the month in his latest blog. Looks like we have to worry more about severe storms than snow.

http://www.examiner...._alerts_article

That's pretty damning from a cold/snow lovers perspective. I've gone ahead and accepted that this might be a snowless winter around here. If we do score it will be a bonus at this point for me.

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Big concerns about the location of the blocking near Alaska in the main med range discussion thread. Ensembles are sparking fears that the blocking retrogrades west quickly into Siberia bringing warmer than normal temps to the EC, while the West gets the stormy/cold weather. Don S. says closer to normal temps for the SE is a possibility even with the retrograde due to transient cold shots, but it remains to be seen. Very cold in the east is not on the table right now according to some other posters, the West seems to be beneficiaries of the blocking not the east. That said most of the posters feel that a -NAO would send the East coast into the icebox.

This is probably the first time we've had any realistic hope of the NAO suddenly going negative. Again, we'll just have to see how this evolves.

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This is probably the first time we've had any realistic hope of the NAO suddenly going negative. Again, we'll just have to see how this evolves.

I have heard Robert and others say that if we do get some Atlantic side blocking to develop it could move around a bit once established. The Atlantic blocking modeled to develop is not a -NAO one but it could translate later in time into one from what I've gathered. Considering the modeling I've seen is not too far away from a Greenland blocking look I would guess it's definitely possible we get a sudden NAO drop in the not too distant future. Now those are not the exact words he used but I think I'm paraphrasing in layman's terms. Basically I what I'm saying is you might be correct about a sudden drop, from the way it sounds, although it is not likely by any means from what I'm reading, but possible. I'm overstepping my areas of knowledge but I gave it a go on what I took from the possible -NAO.

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It appears that that might be getting ready to take place. Again, we're a little ways out and we can't trust the models right now so patience is in order. But if the AO tanks (starting to look that way, history tells us that the NAO will very possibly follow. If so, we're talking COLD...

AO - http://www.daculaweather.com/ao.php

NAO - http://www.daculaweather.com/nao.php

PNa - http://www.daculaweather.com/pna.php

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I have heard Robert and others say that if we do get some Atlantic side blocking to develop it could move around a bit once established. The Atlantic blocking modeled to develop is not a -NAO one but it could translate later in time into one from what I've gathered. Considering the modeling I've seen is not too far away from a Greenland blocking look I would guess it's definitely possible we get a sudden NAO drop in the not too distant future. Now those are not the exact words he used but I think I'm paraphrasing in layman's terms. Basically I what I'm saying is you might be correct about a sudden drop, from the way it sounds, although it is not likely by any means from what I'm reading, but possible. I'm overstepping my areas of knowledge but I gave it a go on what I took from the possible -NAO.

Right, we aren't seeing a -NAO on the modeling as of now....but if the blocking establishes somewhat across the pole (-AO) and the Canadian PV drops south, it's possible that -NAO ridging presents itself. Other possibility too is that the AK ridge retrogrades and -NAO doesn't form, and we're left with cold air bottled up to the north again.

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The -AO development is the only good thing consistently coming out of the model runs. But we're still at least a couple of weeks away from getting into a truly favorable pattern for winter weather in our part of the country. The AK block will need time to work its way into the pole to displace the PV southward and finally bring the NAO indices down.

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Allan Huffman sounds like he thinks winter is pretty much a fail for the rest of the month in his latest blog. Looks like we have to worry more about severe storms than snow.

http://www.examiner...._alerts_article

There seem to be a couple of options on the table and having the heart of the cold dump west of here has ALWAYS been an option. With that said, having the majority of the cold air on our side of the globe is a very good thing if you want snow/ice chances, even if we end up having to rely on perfect timing.

Cold air is very dense and this airmass is one that IF models start showing arctic air sagging from say.......... St Louis MO to Lexington KY 5-7 days out, you can almost certainly add at least another 100-150 miles of southward advance to it. I have seen it happen many times before where the models just can't grasp the advance of an arctic airmass.

What is next to impossible right now is nailing the downstream effect from a forming block in/near Alaska. Once that block forms, the cold HAS to go somewhere and that somewhere is south in some form or fashion. How will this buckling affect the Atlantic? With the AO scheduled to drop, is it possible for the NAO to remain positive? Not likely. A lot more questions than answers at this point. Let's just all sit back and see where this takes us in the coming weeks, good or bad. JMO

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Looks like it's going to get cold for a couple of days late this week and then warm up again. Yippee. I think this is the pattern we're going to see all winter. Cold for a couple of days, and then warm up in time for rain.

Hard to know where you're headed when you're not even sure where you're coming from. There's really no clear window to the atmospheric intentions right now other than trends and guesses.

I think we just need to accept that this winter is going to be a big fail as far as snow around here.

No reason to accept anything at the moment, considering we still aren't sure what is being offered.

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