ravensrule Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 we're a snow-starved community! I would give away my first born to get a storm like the 12Z EURO is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 the 12z dec 21 output (i believe the storm was centered on 26/27 at that pt) looks almost exactly like today's dt special. here's a doozy from the staff forum a day or so later. matched to twc of course. i thought about that pic that was made today as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 That's a helluva read and summation from HPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 extrapolating the NAM for a day 6/7 storm may be a new low for us all. Predicted this in the other thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Predicted this in the other thread. 500 mb trough is digging at hour 81; it is a dry dig, though... GOM is closed for bidness. The next SW, in Wyoming could be the detonator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 500 mb trough is digging at hour 81; it is a dry dig, though... GOM is closed for bidness. Why would the GOM's status matter at hour 81 when the Euro was advertising a day 7/8 scenario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Why would the GOM's status matter so much at hour 81 when the Euro was advertising a day 7/8 scenario? I'm excited... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I have a feeling this is going to be a good GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I'm one step ahead of you "Clark Griswald" here's the 12Z Euro Day 4 (12Z 12/31) http://vortex.plymou...t=h24&cu=latest tonight's 0Z NAM at 84 hrs (also 12Z 12/31) http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Tonight's 00z GFS at 12z 12/31 http://mag.ncep.noaa...500_vort_ht.gif Looks somewhat similar... hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I have a feeling this is going to be a good GFS run. My expectations for a "good run" = "it shows some sort of storm" in roughly the same timeframe as the euro is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Trough looks more amped and west of the 12z at 114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Some nice H's in the west at 123... 1035-1040 pressurewise... wish they could come over in Canada and help out if there is a storm that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 At least it took a step towards the Euro, no storm yet but the ridge is there now. Like i said earlier i think by tomorrow night it will be alot closer to the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Big ridge going up in the west at 135 -- http://mag.ncep.noaa...500_vort_ht.gif What was that rule about ridges in the west? This one currently is UT/E ID/W MT oriented Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 -15c 850s at 156 across the LWX CWA (12z 1/3/12) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 well, it's better than 18Z and better than 12Z run soooo, that's all we get from the GFS tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 well, it's better than 18Z and better than 12Z runs soooo, that's all we get from the GFS tonight Yeah... and there is actual cold air on this run too, which helps. Looks like GFS tries to drop us into the "freezer" from Day 6 on. Also looks like we have our first below freezing day on Jan 3... may not make it to 30 is the 2m temps are right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 well, it's better than 18Z and better than 12Z run soooo, that's all we get from the GFS tonight This is starting to look better and better, by this time tomorrow night it might actually start to feel like 09/10 in here hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Yeah... and there is actual cold air on this run too, which helps at least there's a storm on this run at 168 hrs, albeit off the coast http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Paramℑ=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20111228%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_165_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=165&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12%2F28%2F2011+00UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Over or under. 1 godamn flake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 at least there's a storm on this run at 168 hrs, albeit off the coast http://mag.ncep.noaa...0&nextImage=yes That's the part I find encouraging...that it now at least shows something in the same general timeframe as the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 at least there's a storm on this run at 168 hrs, albeit off the coast http://mag.ncep.noaa...0&nextImage=yes This might be a DTism... but could this be a instance of where the GFS is overdoing the cold air, and thereby shoving the storm out to sea? I mean looking at the 2m temps at 177 (yeah I know, just saying) -10c 2m temps are near KMRB/KIAD/KBWI... could be talking about 10-15 degrees for lows Wednesday morning... thats pretty cold air. Looks like we even stay in the 20s for highs on Wed as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 At least it took a step towards the Euro, no storm yet but the ridge is there now. Like i said earlier i think by tomorrow night it will be alot closer to the EURO. I agree completely. The GFS is starting to catch on to the larger features the ridge in the west and the trof in the east. GFS doesn't dig the upper energy at the back of the trough though. Certainly a big move in the amplified direction with -20C 850s near baltimore. If it continues to trend toward the Euro tomorrow could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 This might be a DTism... but could this be a instance of where the GFS is overdoing the cold air, and thereby shoving the storm out to sea? I mean looking at the 2m temps at 177 (yeah I know, just saying) -10c 2m temps are near KMRB/KIAD/KBWI... could be talking about 10-15 degrees for lows Yoda we are 7 days away, we have tons of time for all these aspects to correct. Do not sweat it this far out. I am starting to get a lot more excited though after seeing the GFS show the ridge at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Yoda we are 7 days away, we have tons of time for all these aspects to correct. Do not sweat it this far out. I am starting to get a lot more excited though after seeing the GFS show the ridge at least. Oh I know I just find it interesting that this run drops us into the freezer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Will and John i see you are in here, what are your thoughts on this run?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Yoda we are 7 days away, we have tons of time for all these aspects to correct. Do not sweat it this far out. I am starting to get a lot more excited though after seeing the GFS show the ridge at least. The biggest issue for DC I think would be the placement of the ridge. Its pretty far east even on the Euro. That was one of the problems with Boxing Day...the ridge axis being that far east requires some extremely anomalous deepening of the trough and closing it off. Unlike Boxing though, if the ridge axis sneaks too far west, then it could cut...since we do not have the monster block in place like last year. So there is a fine line to walk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Oh I know I just find it interesting that this run drops us into the freezer. Well we had to get cold sometime, although after reading the experts it seems like it will be a short lived cold speel. But i will take it if it means a big storm and after we have 2 weeks in the 50's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Over or under. 1 godamn flake I'll take the under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 Looks like the GFS is starting to cave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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