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January 2012 Storm Threats and Discussion

PhineasC

By PhineasC,
in Mid Atlantic

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

I know you are joking with Ian, but it would be fascinating from a weather perspective, and desirable to boot, if this winter just totally flipped and we had an epic Jan to mid March period.

Even though I hated it, the 89-90 flip is still one of the most fascinating I can remember. Maybe this one works in reverse.

well i definitely didnt predict the snowiest January on record but i have always thought January would deliver based on my rudimentary long-range skill which is about .5/10ths of those who are good and less than that compared to those who are notably good. plus im on record like a week ago saying we had 80% chance of snowier than normal Jan. ;)

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

First timer on this board....enjoy seeing the conversation!

Given the La Nina year, one would expect a smaller window for the bigger snow events to have the opportunity to happen. Climatologically, the lowest mean temps are in late Jan, so the window would be +- a few weeks around that time, which is where we're getting into. Main point here is even with a neutral to slightly positive NAO, a moderate snow event is possible. Obviously the models need to sort out the northern stream waves, but encouraging that the Euro has had some consistency with this for several runs. 18Z run (although off-time) was definitely more energetic than the 12Z zonal solution.

not to mention the euro would be the biggest nina storm on record around here by far.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Wasn't Jan 1996 a nina?

yeah i guess so.. brain fart. still, same general picture. i was remembering stats i pulled for mod/strong like last yr tho i guess this yr is close rto 96 than last yr on oni numbers at least.

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

It was a weak one with a negative nao.

absolutely on the NAO issue, but guess what....ENSO was incredibly similar to this year for ENSO 1+2, 3 and 3.4; 95 had a warmer ENSO 4 by .9C

here's a link to weekly SSTA http://www.cpc.ncep....dices/wksst.for

the most recent weekly temps on the link are for 12/21/11

the matching week in 12/95 is 12/20/95

pretty incredible, ehh?

20DEC1995 22.0-1.1 24.1-1.0 25.6-0.9 28.1-0.1

21DEC2011 22.1-1.0 24.5-0.7 25.6-0.9 27.2-1.0

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usedtobe

usedtobe

Posted
Posted

absolutely on the NAO issue, but guess what....ENSO was incredibly similar to this year for ENSO 1+2, 3 and 3.4; 95 had a warmer ENSO 4 by .9C

here's a link to weekly SSTA http://www.cpc.ncep....dices/wksst.for

the most recent weekly temps on the link are for 12/21/11

the matching week in 12/95 is 12/20/95

pretty incredible, ehh?

20DEC1995 22.0-1.1 24.1-1.0 25.6-0.9 28.1-0.1

21DEC2011 22.1-1.0 24.5-0.7 25.6-0.9 27.2-1.0

It's obviously going to be the big one.

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted

Does anyone recall the timing of when and for how long the Euro was showing the Christmas storm? I thought it was for about 4-5 runs around Days 6-8 out. Of course, GFS was sniffing a Boxing Day storm about the same time as well. Point being, Euro has picked this up a bit earlier and has shown a storm for ~4 runs. Of course, 12z was by far the porniest one, but the storm was there in other manifestations on earlier runs.

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

Does anyone recall the timing of when and for how long the Euro was showing the Christmas storm? I thought it was for about 4-5 runs around Days 6-8 out. Of course, GFS was sniffing a Boxing Day storm about the same time as well. Point being, Euro has picked this up a bit earlier and has shown a storm for ~4 runs. Of course, 12z was by far the porniest one, but the storm was there in other manifestations on earlier runs.

actually, 6 runs, but who (other than us weenies) is counting!

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

I've saved everyone the trouble and gone ahead and extrapolated the 0z NAM for 3 days after the end of the run and it looks great! :whistle::snowing:

I'm one step ahead of you "Clark Griswald"

here's the 12Z Euro Day 4 (12Z 12/31)

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest

tonight's 0Z NAM at 84 hrs (also 12Z 12/31)

http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M

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usedtobe

usedtobe

Posted
Posted

I'm one step ahead of you "Clark Griswald"

here's the 12Z Euro Day 4 (12Z 12/31)

http://vortex.plymou...t=h24&cu=latest

tonight's 0Z NAM at 84 hrs (also 12Z 12/31)

http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M

When I looped it through on the NAM it looks like it falttens the flow in canada too much to get the euro solution. It's a better solution than the gfs but still has a ways to go before it gets to the euro. The flat looking impluse coming across the gulf of ak is a problem.

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

When I looped it through on the NAM it looks like it falttens the flow in canada too much to get the euro solution. It's a better solution than the gfs but still has a ways to go before it gets to the euro. The flat looking impluse coming across the gulf of ak is a problem.

<Randy>so the 6Z run then will be telling<Randy>

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Does anyone recall the timing of when and for how long the Euro was showing the Christmas storm? I thought it was for about 4-5 runs around Days 6-8 out. Of course, GFS was sniffing a Boxing Day storm about the same time as well. Point being, Euro has picked this up a bit earlier and has shown a storm for ~4 runs. Of course, 12z was by far the porniest one, but the storm was there in other manifestations on earlier runs.

Interesting the Euro nailed the PNA ridge....

(0z 12/20/2010 GFS run showed this)

"at 126 hour, didn't quite phase with the nrn stream, so it gets booted, sheared some to the southeast. The warm advection changes NC over to rain, and we have just a regular frontal passage with strong cold advection behind it. the 850 low is in southern WVA"

(The 0z 12/20/2010 Euro showed this)

"….the size of the PNA ridge out west into Canada is enourmous and sends the s/w sharpening up and phasing it looks like . By 114 to 120 low is in central Louisaina. Unbelievablely gorgeous look so far. Hopefully nothing collapses. I really like the looks of this. Cold is pretty far south. "

"144 hour. A 1004 low in myrtle beach, snow all over GA, the Caarolinas, Va eastern Ky. GREAT RUN!!!"

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Does anyone recall the timing of when and for how long the Euro was showing the Christmas storm? I thought it was for about 4-5 runs around Days 6-8 out. Of course, GFS was sniffing a Boxing Day storm about the same time as well. Point being, Euro has picked this up a bit earlier and has shown a storm for ~4 runs. Of course, 12z was by far the porniest one, but the storm was there in other manifestations on earlier runs.

the 12z dec 21 output (i believe the storm was centered on 26/27 at that pt) looks almost exactly like today's dt special.

here's a doozy from the staff forum a day or so later. matched to twc of course. ;)

post-1615-0-08767300-1325042513.jpg

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snowdude

snowdude

Posted
Posted

HPC again...great discussion.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

230 PM EST TUE DEC 27 2011

VALID 12Z FRI DEC 30 2011 - 12Z TUE JAN 03 2012

A QUIET RATHER MILD PATTERN MOST PLACES THRU THE WEEKEND. BUT

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE

CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEASTERN STATES NEXT WEEK. DETAILS

QUITE SKETCHY...

MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THAT THE FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BUCKLE

THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS FROM ALASKA

SOUTHWARD ALONG 140W. THIS IN TURN LEADS TO SIGNIFICANT RIDGING

ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...CAUSING THE HEAVY PRECIP ACROSS THE

PACIFIC NW TO CEASE. A TROF SHOULD DEVELOP SOMEWHERE E OF THE

PLAINS STATES...BUT HOW FAR E?

HOWEVER...THE GEFS FAMILY OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS IS MUCH

FLATTER/DELAYED/FARTHER E AS THEIR TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP SUN

DAY 5. WHEN THE 00Z GEFS MEAN FINALLY DOES DEVELOP THE TROUGH...IT

IS STILL WEAKER WITH IT MON/TUE THAN THE CORRESPONDING ECMWF

FAMILY OF SOLUTIONS. BY SUN...THE 00Z/27 GFS/CANADIAN/GEFS MEAN

PROGRESS THE DEVELOPING TROUGH FARTHER EAST THAN THE 00Z/27

UKMET/ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.

SINCE THERE IS DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS ON FLOW IN THE ERN PACIFIC

BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED ...A CORRESPONDING SLOW MOVING/AMPLIFIED

TROUGH EAST OF THE PLAINS MAKES SENSE...THOUGH NOT AS

SLOW/AMPLIFIED AS THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z/27 ECMWF. THE ECMWF HAS A

BIAS OF BEING TOO SLOW/STRONG WITH SYSTEMS FARTHER OUT THAN 120

HOURS. LARGE SCALE TELECONNECTIONS ON AN ERN PACIFIC TROUGH AND

NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER GREENLAND FAVOR A MUCH WEAKER E

COAST TROF THAN THE ECMWF OR ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

THE KEY SEEMS TO BE HOW MUCH AMPLIFICATION OF AN ERN PACIFIC

TROUGH ALONG 140W OCCURS AROUND DAY 5...WITH SUBSEQUENT

AMPLIFICATION DOWNSTREAM OVER NOAM. THE 00Z/12Z DETERMINISTIC

ECMWF SEEMS TO GO TOO FAR IN DEVELOPING A DEEP CLOSED CYCLONE

ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WHICH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS

NEXT TUE OR WED. HOWEVER...THERE IS STRONG ECENS ENSEMBLE

SPAGHETTI SUPPORT FOR A DEEP...YET LESS DRASTIC...FULL LATITUDE

TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS MON-WED. THERE IS

CONSISTENCY IN RECENT DETERMINISTIC ECMWF RUNS WITH THIS GENERAL

AMPLIFYING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z/27 ECENS MEAN STILL

SEEMS LIKE A GOOD HEDGE AFTER SUN DAY 5...IN VIEW OF ITS GOOD LONG

TERM GOOD VERIFICATION.

THE 12Z/27 GFS/GEFS MEAN PERSISTED IN A GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE

FLAVOR IN ITS FORECASTS. THE GFS SEEMS TO OVERPLAY ONE IMPULSE

REACHING THE E COAST SAT DAY 5 GIVEN ITS FAST WESTERLY

ENVIRONMENT...WHILE IT SHOWS ONLY MODERATE DEVELOPMENT TO THE NEXT

TROUGH REACHING 85W BY SUN. IT HAS EVEN BACKED OFF IN AMPLITUDE

HERE FROM ITS 06Z/27 RUN. THE 12Z/27 UKMET WAS IN SNYC WITH THE

GFS ON THE MAIN FEATURES ACROSS THE COUNTRY THRU MON DAY 6.

THEN COMETH THE 12Z/27 CANADIAN...HANDLING THE PATTERN ACROSS MOST

OF THE LOWER 48 FROM DAY 4 ONWARD VERY SIMILAR TO THE 00Z/27 ECMWF

WITH SPECTACULAR DIGGING/CLOSING OFF ALOFT NEAR THE LOWER MS VLY

EARLY TUE. THE SCORE IS EVEN WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN/00Z AND 12Z

ECMWF/00Z/27 ECENS MEAN PITTED AGAINST THE 12Z/27 GFS/GEFS

MEAN/UKMET. THE NEW 12Z/27 ECMWF PLAYS UP A DIFFERENT SHORTWAVE

IN THE AMPLIFYING CENTRAL/ERN TROF TUE/WED BUT HAS THE SAME IDEA

AS PREVIOUSLY...FORECASTING THE A DAY 8 STORM FOR THE E COAST

INSTEAD OF DAY 7. WITH THIS MUCH SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY FINAL

GRAPHICS ARE STAYING UNCHANGED...HEAVILY WEIGHTED ON THE BACK END

TOWARDS THE ECENS MEAN.

FLOOD

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