Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Wow is the NAM juiced for Friday. it's also way colder. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 NAM now looks stronger and colder with Friday's system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 lol @ 18z NAM... Double Any credence to this depiction/setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 All of my hopes, dreams and fantasies surround Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 lock in the nam please? At least a delay...maybe a snow day if that happened lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 it's also way colder. LOL. Chuck a few in your eye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Sharp cutoff at the MA/NH border too. About a 3-5" thumper along the pike (about 30 miles either side) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Double Any credence to this depiction/setup? tough to say...just based on the way the thermal profile behaves - it's relatively torched going into it, crashes colder, and then warms as soon as the event passes - i'm guessing it both dynamically cools a bit and wet-bulbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 That would be a good outcome. Gives just about everyone their snow on the ground for Christmas and then we can be more relaxed about what comes later Xmas/Boxing Day. lol @ 18z NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 it's also way colder. LOL. Yeah...much better for Will and the rest of the higher terrain, but still probably some 33-34F snows for Ray-Scott-Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 well nam is getting juicer for friday. for me though in southern nh still only very light snow probably just snow showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 it's also way colder. LOL. It's actually got snow grain QPF and NE winds clear back to BUF on this run... gray, cold, with 2-4" regionally, and grains and flurries. eh, sounds pretty post-cardy if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 its kind of funny that our christmas dreams are coming from the 18z nam lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 NAM BL looks a lot better. Would prob be a couple inches for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 tough to say...just based on the way the thermal profile behaves - it's relatively torched going into it, crashes colder, and then warms as soon as the event passes - i'm guessing it both dynamically cools a bit and wet-bulbs. Yeah I noticed the same thing. When those higher UVVs move through E MA crashes to 33-34F and then jump back up to that 36F area as they move out. Then well into the 40s Fri afternoon to melt a lot of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The nam is probably the only model that gives me meaningful snow...other models give rain/snow to maybe a coating or an inch on the grass...the nam could be a legitimate 2-4" from the 9z to 12-14z timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 NAM is an AWT for many of us..and you gotta like this from BOX..overhand tossing a handful SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK... GUIDANCE STILL TRYING TO BREAK DOWN THE PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE DURING THIS PERIOD. GFS REMAINS FAST OUTLIER WITH WRN CENTRAL CONUS TROF QUICKLY SLIDING E AS A WEAK WAVE WITH LOW PRES WELL OFFSHORE. MAJORITY OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLN HOWEVER...WHICH IS MORE ROBUST PATTERN SHIFT WITH STRONGER TROF LATE SUN INTO MON. THIS CONTINUES TO FAVOR A SFC LOW CROSSING CLOSE TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...AS THIS SOLN SUGGESTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF INTERIOR SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 At least we'll be able to wash the salt off our cars come Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 THIS CONTINUES TO FAVOR A SFC LOW CROSSING CLOSE TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK DURING THIS PERIOD Poor Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 NAM is an AWT for many of us..and you gotta like this from BOX..overhand tossing a handful SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK... GUIDANCE STILL TRYING TO BREAK DOWN THE PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE DURING THIS PERIOD. GFS REMAINS FAST OUTLIER WITH WRN CENTRAL CONUS TROF QUICKLY SLIDING E AS A WEAK WAVE WITH LOW PRES WELL OFFSHORE. MAJORITY OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLN HOWEVER...WHICH IS MORE ROBUST PATTERN SHIFT WITH STRONGER TROF LATE SUN INTO MON. THIS CONTINUES TO FAVOR A SFC LOW CROSSING CLOSE TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...AS THIS SOLN SUGGESTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF INTERIOR SNE. Probably did not see euro or ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Probably did not see euro or ensembles. It was just updated though...so I would think they at least saw the euro...the euro had an interior snowstorm...just farther in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 NAM still rain for me and many of the valleys but looks good for the hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Yeah I noticed the same thing. When those higher UVVs move through E MA crashes to 33-34F and then jump back up to that 36F area as they move out. Then well into the 40s Fri afternoon to melt a lot of it. i haven't gone through and done a pt by pt sounding analysis but i'm guessing a big chunk of the BL in a lot of the area must be like borderline 1C..and maybe has a layer of decently dry air in there. the difference between 06z and 12z is pretty funny...the entire region cools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Poor Ray. right over him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 NAM still rain for me and many of the valleys but looks good for the hills. I actually think it flips to snow pretty quickly for just about everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 This could be an epic fail from 5 days out for the GEFS. I'm just hoping the euro calms down a bit, but this pattern would argue otherwise. There is still a lot of uncertainty, though so it will take another 48 hrs out potentially. Remember the storm two weeks ago that really looked like an OTS solution that ended up being a NYS/CNE/NNE threat. well nam is getting juicer for friday. for me though in southern nh still only very light snow probably just snow showers Yeah--sucks on the qpf for those above Rt 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 NAM still rain for me and many of the valleys but looks good for the hills. Except for Mt Tolland - right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 These models an an emotional roller coaster! re: Xmas... GFS a non existent low, ECM perfect for me, but too close for the Megalopolis, GGEM snow to rain for everyone but PF and OL. So it should calm the nerves if we can get snow cover Friday.... I actually think it flips to snow pretty quickly for just about everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The nam wasn't as good as I first thought...but could definitely cause some problems with the morning commute inland if it played out like the 18z nam showed. Like Brian said, everything will be melted quickly though as temps rise over 40F after 15z and don't fall below freezing until after 3z...if at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The nam wasn't as good as I first thought...but could definitely cause some problems with the morning commute inland if it played out like the 18z nam showed. Like Brian said, everything will be melted quickly though as temps rise over 40F after 15z and don't fall below freezing until around 00z. I wouldn't worry too much about that yet. There will be some CAA as the system passes, but maybe some clouds and spits of -SN/-RA can linger with a little inverted troughiness hanging back. Then again maybe you will downslope and get some breaks of sun and torch some of the snow off. If I was you I'd just take any snow I can get at this point and worry about the melt off later. It isn't as if we're in a sustained wintry pattern to pile up the snowpack anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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