weatherMA Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 18z gfs gives me .4" qpf but its rain-->rain/snow mix-->snow, and the snow falls at 35F or so so not sure I would get more then some slop despite it being juiced. And lol @ Pete Bruchard..he mentioned why he was confident in a solution of 6+ west of ORH...2-4 around ORH/495...and rain at the coast for a rough estimate. He mentioned that the reason he was so confident 5 days out is for the past 2 days the models have shown the same thing...and so he gained confidence. Not sure what he is smoking...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Friday storm looks like a perfect SWFE setup/track for SNE/CNE (according to NAM and GFS), it's too bad the antecedent air mass is so warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 NCEP's held up while they scramble to recalibrate and re-run those extended frames to remove the huge storm and wanted pattern change .... NCEP is out to ruin your dreams tip! They know what you want and make sure you don't get it haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Can you do it with the mouse wheel? I'm not sure. I use a laptop so started with the arrows. I put it on my docking station during the day, but never tried it with the mouse. Meanwhile, I was disappointed to read this: CURRENT THINKING IS GUIDANCE IS TOO ROBUST WITH QPF ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS FEATURE AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP QPF GRADIENT SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION. THIS IS DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN THIS FAR OUT... I think I know where, and it ain't pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Initally, i hated this one. But I changed my tune when I learned I could use the arrows to advance a "stopped" loop. 29.0/11 Me too...I've learned to like the NCEP page because of the looping abilities. I just went on the NCEP site, Although you can use the arrows, You can't toggle their maps by using the mouse wheel like you can on SV which i think is more preferable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I'm not sure. I use a laptop so started with the arrows. I put it on my docking station during the day, but never tried it with the mouse. Meanwhile, I was disappointed to read this: CURRENT THINKING IS GUIDANCE IS TOO ROBUST WITH QPF ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS FEATURE AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP QPF GRADIENT SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION. THIS IS DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN THIS FAR OUT... I think I know where, and it ain't pretty. They had mentioned the shelburne area, Glad i don't live there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Starting to think the King might be incorrect for the xmas storm, gfs ens not budging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 They had mentioned the shelburne area, Glad i don't live there LOL. It's a hell hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Starting to think the King might be incorrect for the xmas storm, gfs ens not budging. I think you may want to wait on the GFS a few more runs as its in its lost in space mode right now, The Euro has some support from the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I think you may want to wait on the GFS a few more runs as its in its lost in space mode right now, The Euro has some support from the GGEM Key word......starting. Besides if the king is correct in holding back that energy and there is a storm nothing stopping it from cutting west, nothing at all. Hopefully we all pull out a miracle and get some snow friday and mood flakes sat, then sunny and chilly xmas, the thought of rain on xmas is brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Key word......starting. Besides if the king is correct in holding back that energy and there is a storm nothing stopping it from cutting west, nothing at all. Hopefully we all pull out a miracle and get some snow friday and mood flakes sat, then sunny and chilly xmas, the thought of rain on xmas is brutal. You must hate living where you do...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Nightmare Looks like its been a great winter at Porcupine Creek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Playing catch up...confusing thread. So there is a rain event on tap for tomorrow night, then some light-mod snow maybe on Thursday night/Friday, then a little snow maybe on Saturday, and possibly a big storm sunday night/monday? The Euro has the big storm for 3 or 4 runs in a row,with support from the GGEM and the GFS has nothing. Hmmmm...at what point tomorrow does the GFS get on board? Damn nice to have something(s) to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Key word......starting. Besides if the king is correct in holding back that energy and there is a storm nothing stopping it from cutting west, nothing at all. Hopefully we all pull out a miracle and get some snow friday and mood flakes sat, then sunny and chilly xmas, the thought of rain on xmas is brutal. Well, I would not be totally shocked if the friday event ends up being "The" only one, As it seems to be trending stronger and further NW each run on most of the models, Had mentioned it the other day when the models were showing 3 lows, There is not a lot of spacing between all of them so they seem to be keying on different pieces which probably won't get sorted out for a few more runs, Its just hard to belive any scenario the GFS has as its pretty much been on an island this whole season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Key word......starting. Besides if the king is correct in holding back that energy and there is a storm nothing stopping it from cutting west, nothing at all. Hopefully we all pull out a miracle and get some snow friday and mood flakes sat, then sunny and chilly xmas, the thought of rain on xmas is brutal. I'm worried about a cutter too...no blocking and a high that is trucking it away from New England... either way whatever happens the storm or no storm will be progressive. Before the GFS lost the storm it was similar to the EC and GGEM bringing warm moist air well inland to almost central NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Playing catch up...confusing thread. So there is a rain event on tap for tomorrow night, then some light-mod snow maybe on Thursday night/Friday, then a little snow maybe on Saturday, and possibly a big storm sunday night/monday? The Euro has the big storm for 3 or 4 runs in a row,with support from the GGEM and the GFS has nothing. Hmmmm...at what point tomorrow does the GFS get on board? Damn nice to have something(s) to track. Quite simple Mark, Rain tomorow, Possible snow friday and christmas day........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I think my biggest concerns would be rain over a whiff at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Playing catch up...confusing thread. So there is a rain event on tap for tomorrow night, then some light-mod snow maybe on Thursday night/Friday, then a little snow maybe on Saturday, and possibly a big storm sunday night/monday? The Euro has the big storm for 3 or 4 runs in a row,with support from the GGEM and the GFS has nothing. Hmmmm...at what point tomorrow does the GFS get on board? Damn nice to have something(s) to track. Before the GFS lost the storm today, remember that it had a plowable snow for most of New England esp north of RT 2 for the past couple of days. Some data got into it and all the sudden poof it's gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Before the GFS lost the storm today, remember that it had a plowable snow for most of New England esp north of RT 2 for the past couple of days. Some data got into it and all the sudden poof it's gone. They plow for 1-2"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 I assume a lot of our tax dollars have gone into the many many upgrades of the MRF -> GFS and yet it stll can't even hold a candle to the ECWF model most of the time. I sometimes think it's sort of typical of a government program (sacred cow) that nobody would ever want to let go of. Why not scrap the whole thing and get some programmers to make a whole new model... Before the GFS lost the storm today, remember that it had a plowable snow for most of New England esp north of RT 2 for the past couple of days. Some data got into it and all the sudden poof it's gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Quite simple Mark, Rain tomorow, Possible snow friday and christmas day........lol What happened to the lingering, spitting, never quite ending Saturday snow...like we had in Dec 08? Thanks for simplifying it by the way....have to assume by Monday we've gotten at least 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I really don't think the Friday storm is done coming north yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Man. Not that I had a chance for snow out here anyway but, I'm glad I'm going to the tropics for the next 5 days while this pattern persists. BTW, anyone know who's driving this van? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 What happened to the lingering, spitting, never quite ending Saturday snow...like we had in Dec 08? Thanks for simplifying it by the way....have to assume by Monday we've gotten at least 6 inches. I don't know about 6"+ but several is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 They plow for 1-2"? They do this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 NCEP is out to ruin your dreams tip! They know what you want and make sure you don't get it haha Nah, not for me ... I was making fun of all the model hugging and living and dying, yo-yoing relentlessly with every tedious detail across successive runs. New Year's eve bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Man. Not that I had a chance for snow out here anyway but, I'm glad I'm going to the tropics for the next 5 days while this pattern persists. BTW, anyone know who's driving this van? That's great.' It has Fairfield on it, so perhaps Joe drives that up to Windsor so the Rev can buy his lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 lol @ the day 10 bomb on the gfs...widespread 8-16" for everyone. What an end to 2011 that would be lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I don't know about 6"+ but several is possible. euro 1 inch qpf and thats just one storm of the 2 or 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 One of my unfulfilled weenie dreams is to see a crippling blizzard strike NYC for the midnight ball drop on NYE. I realize it probably would mean I am too far northwest for the best here, but I'd still love to see it. lol @ the day 10 bomb on the gfs...widespread 8-16" for everyone. What an end to 2011 that would be lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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