yoda Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 cold at the surface 32-33 but mid levels do warm up at the height of the storm..... 850s are still below 0 at 120.. but they are racing north... could be a few hrs of snow/sleet--->rain thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 no..but mostly...verbatim, would probably start as some snow/sleet at 34-37 degrees for a few hours and then change over...minor or no accumulation Can you tell how much precip falls before 850s warm above 0C? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Bingo. Although you are insufferable when you're either going to miss a storm here or be in a better location, you are 100% right on this. i dont think i've ever missed a good storm here. plus im usually right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 this map sort of sums it up http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=strm&in=2&pl=ln&ft=h120&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 till 0z when it's a little warmer and 12z when it's a little warmer than that probably?....but GFS doesnt even have a storm....this will vacillate...I think the high end writing is on the wall though....I'd want to be pretty far north and west of DC to maximize the front end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 till 0z when it's a little warmer and 12z when it's a little warmer than that So a repeat of a couple weeks ago. Nothing to stop it from coming more N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Wes what would it take for the HP to hold in instead of sliding east. Is that even a possibility?. Instead of having all the troughs and vort maxes racing towards the high, it would be better i there was a nice upper low near nova scotia to hold confluence over the region. Without confluence the high just moves along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 So a repeat of a couple weeks ago. Nothing to stop it from coming more N. skimrg special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim_in_CA Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 there is legit cold air in Canada migrating south and east at day 10, but the pattern is so wretched it will all end up deep in Quebec with an impenetrable force field well north of the US/Canada border....If there is no mechanism capable of delivering cold air to INternational Falls, what are we supposed to do?....North Dakota/Northern MN will easily put up +10 departures for the month if the models are right...Fargo hit 55 on Sunday I think this is the key point. Outside cutoffs in the SW, it isn't snowing anywhere really. Certainly nowhere east of the Mississippi. This is just an epicly bad pattern. As awful as I can remember. If it just wasn't snowing here that'd be one thing, but SNE can't get snow, heck, even Maine can't buy any snow. Until some cold air comes in and normally snowy places start to get some snow, we certainly don't have a chance. It's funny because most winters the weenie in me is cursing, saying "I hate this place, I'm moving to city XYZ" (insert Boston, Pittsburgh, Augusta, ME, etc). This year, there's nowhere in the east I could move to and get snow. It's looking like Dallas may have a colder Christmas than we will. And certainly a nicer one. There's nothing I hate more than muggy wet 50s in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Wes what would it take for the HP to hold in instead of sliding east. Is that even a possibility?. Blocking in the Atl. but nothing is there so it will just keep scooting off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 5 days out in a bad pattern.. not sure why we're even talking snow lines etc. that stuff has been frowned upon by many in the past. i guess people are getting desperate. it's gonna rain.. at least it looks worse up north too i guess. I don' think anyone is talking about specifics except for you who has already declared this a rainstorm in a bunch of differnet posts and told us what the future Euro runs will look like...maybe we shouldnt discuss it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Can you tell how much precip falls before 850s warm above 0C? maybe a 0.50" hard to tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 skimrg special. I am going to report you for that Anywho... until we find some real cold air.. no one along the east coast besides those far away from the coastal plain and even toward the mountains are going to see much snow, if at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I don' think anyone is talking about specifics except for you who has already declared this a rainstorm in a bunch of differnet posts and told us what the future Euro runs will look like...maybe we shouldnt discuss it? meh.. you admonish everyone all the time for talking qpf and specifics at this range. when i do it im evil. im not down on every storm, just the crappy ones. i've got a pretty strong track record this yr so far just like past yrs. but party on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 hr 150 gfs has ric at +4c euro -6c 0c all the way to fla. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Someone in NNE would really cash in if this storm verifies as the Euro advertises. yay? P.S. Thanks for the precip total, Midlo. I'll take my chances with measurable precip in early morning in late December with 850s below zero and a marginal boundary layer. I'd be very happy with a mood snowfall in the morning that turns to moderate rain later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I don' think anyone is talking about specifics except for you who has already declared this a rainstorm in a bunch of differnet posts and told us what the future Euro runs will look like...maybe we shouldnt discuss it? I was going to ask about the track of the 850 low, does it go to our north? Sure looks like it should from it's position over KY. Does the surface low track inland from the coast at our latitude. The crappy temporal resolution progs make it hard to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 meh.. you admonish everyone all the time for talking qpf and specifics at this range. when i do it im evil. im not down on every storm, just the crappy ones. i've got a pretty strong track record this yr so far just like past yrs. but party on. I don't think anyone is getting into the minute specifics and thermal profiles that drag down model threads...mostly just giving an overview of what the model is advertising and the type of event we can expect....that is all I was doing at least...I think everyone knows that the pattern and potential is an uphill battle and that this wont likely work out or it will work out real sloppily....there is no skill in predicting that....but congrats on your record! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Instead of having all the troughs and vort maxes racing towards the high, it would be better i there was a nice upper low near nova scotia to hold confluence over the region. Without confluence the high just moves along. Blocking in the Atl. but nothing is there so it will just keep scooting off the coast. Thank you very much, so basically not much hope in that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I don't think anyone is getting into the minute specifics and thermal profiles that drag down model threads...mostly just giving an overview of what the model is advertising and the type of event we can expect....that is all I was doing at least...I think everyone knows that the pattern and potential is an uphill battle and that this wont likely work out or it will work out real sloppily....there is no skill in predicting that....but congrats on your record! thanks. sigh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Euro wunderground weenie snowfall maps are out and they are pretty. Wes...to answer your question, there is no closed 850 low when the Euro is supposedly giving us snow. But the closest thing to the closed low is well to the N/W of the area near Youngstown, OH. But after that it starts to reform closer to the coast, so that all certainly explains the strong warm advection aloft. 850 temps go above 0C around 18z for most of us. Surface temps are still in the 0-4C range during the entire time, but looks like wet bulb temps would probably be very close to freezing at the surface until 15-18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I was going to ask about the track of the 850 low, does it go to our north? Sure looks like it should from it's position over KY. Does the surface low track inland from the coast at our latitude. The crappy temporal resolution progs make it hard to tell. very hard for me to tell from my maps, but my guess is maybe right over us? the sfc low is amorphous...primary near central VA/NC border and then either jumps or secondary forms 40 miles se of ACY...i dont think the track is terrible...just no cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 meh.. you admonish everyone all the time for talking qpf and specifics at this range. when i do it im evil. im not down on every storm, just the crappy ones. i've got a pretty strong track record this yr so far just like past yrs. but party on. I don't think anyone is getting into the minute specifics and thermal profiles that drag down model threads...mostly just giving an overview of what the model is advertising and the type of event we can expect....that is all I was doing at least...I think everyone knows that the pattern and potential is an uphill battle and that this wont likely work out or it will work out real sloppily....there is no skill in predicting that....but congrats on your record! This an effing weather forum. What are we supposed to do? Discuss what color socks we're wearing or our individual greatness? 99% of the people in this forum right now know exactly what the odds are and what to expect with this system. But, when the weather pattern sucks for snow lovers, everyone comes in here and because there's nothing else to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Euro wunderground weenie snowfall maps are out and they are pretty. The **** they are... ugly, ugly, ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 This an effing weather forum. What are we supposed to do? Discuss what color socks we're wearing or our individual greatness? 99% of the people in this forum right now know exactly what the odds are and what to expect with this system. But, when the weather pattern sucks for snow lovers, everyone comes in here and because there's nothing else to do. heh. no.. carry on. i just dont think it's fair i have to defend my position because the euro weenie maps show such and such or because im going to be out of town. i'll spend the rest of my time reading the sne forum though if it will make others happy. whatever happens here will have no impact on me. sorry i said it would rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Euro last year around this time. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The **** they are... ugly, ugly, ugly. Um...ok. Where do you live, Richmond? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Um...ok. Where do you live, Richmond? Not really good for the cities here, but N and W I'd say they're nice, so its close despite the expected trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 heh. no.. carry on. i just dont think it's fair i have to defend my position because the euro weenie maps show such and such or because im going to be out of town. i'll spend the rest of my time reading the sne forum though if it will make others happy. whatever happens here will have no impact on me. sorry i said it would rain. Blah. Don't leave us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Not really good for the cities here, but N and W I'd say they're nice, so its close despite the expected trends. Whether or not they are right based on what the rest of the Euro run shows or whether they verifiy or not come 5 days from now... RIGHT FREAKING NOW they show snow falling on Christmas morning and accumulating a couple inches IN THE CITIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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