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12z Euro 12/12/10


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always that risk with coastal

the western side of the elongated 500 low IS -- the piece that is over manitoba -- is going to dive se at some point and it IS going tos spn up a coastal

what the euro is doing is seeeing a strong piece of short wave energy in the STJ.... and the two phase

Keep in mind the GFS as we all know.... at times does not accept that there actually something called the STJ on the planet earth

so SINCE the GFS does see any STJ energy the model has NOTHING to phase

ergo and Low is waaaaaaaay out to sea

got it?

What he said ^

And, to graphically represent it, it's the piece over CA on 96 ( top left panel):

f96.gif

By 144 that piece has moved to the TX/LA area

f144.gif

And by 168 it has of course blown up along the east coast.

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Yes, that is a nice match. I am just worried that the wavelengths are a little too far to the east this go-around. Then again, that may be a good thing with analogs like 1966.

I was just going to say...i think syracuse got like upper 30 inch snowfall with that one, wavelengths a bit futher east would be quite helpful for us living near the coast

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Guest someguy

Yeah for NNE and NNY not for thje mid atlantic. the flow is tow W-E

if you say "the angle of cold air is all wrong " .......... I am going to fooking shoot you

( that was a joke guys)

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always that risk with coastal

the western side of the elongated 500 low IS -- the piece that is over manitoba -- is in MY opinion--- going to dive se at some point and it IS going to spin up a coastal

The 12z eur-- and most of the euro and euro ensmble means -- is doing is that it SEES a strong piece of short wave energy in the STJ....

so the western side of the elongated over the MN and northern Great lakes and the s/w in the STJ phase

add vorticity... baked throughly... serve cold

Keep in mind the GFS as we all know.... at times does not accept that there actually something called the STJ on the planet earth

so SINCE the GFS does see any STJ energy the model has NOTHING to phase

ergo and Low is waaaaaaaay out to sea

got it?

The new euro ensemble mean based on the 12Z run looks like it has things farther east again unless I've latched onto an old run. I'm sure there are some members with more amplitude but I think it's look is a cause for concern.

post-70-0-55171600-1292188543.gif

]

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The new euro ensemble mean based on the 12Z run looks like it has things farther east again unless I've latched onto an old run. I'm sure there are some members with more amplitude but I think it's look is a cause for concern.

post-70-0-55171600-1292188543.gif

]

So far this winter the ensembles have consistently been further south and east than the op, in fact I would struggle to recall an ensemble run that was further north or west than the operational. Now in the case of the euro ensembles you posted above, they are far enough OTS to not affect the coast at all, but its somewhat expected if you ask me.

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The new euro ensemble mean based on the 12Z run looks like it has things farther east again unless I've latched onto an old run. I'm sure there are some members with more amplitude but I think it's look is a cause for concern.

post-70-0-55171600-1292188543.gif

]

Thats the same run I have and the time fits for the 12z run. Certainly shows the uncertainty as the mean is further east.

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The new euro ensemble mean based on the 12Z run looks like it has things farther east again unless I've latched onto an old run. I'm sure there are some members with more amplitude but I think it's look is a cause for concern.

post-70-0-55171600-1292188543.gif

]

As we would expect from you Wes. However regarding this current system the Ensembles were always east of the Operational so i wouldn't be concerned about anything 7-8 days out but that's just me.

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So far this winter the ensembles have consistently been further south and east than the op, in fact I would struggle to recall an ensemble run that was further north or west than the operational. Now in the case of the euro ensembles you posted above, they are far enough OTS to not affect the coast at all, but its somewhat expected if you ask me.

I guess but they supported the euro most of the time during the last storm in this time range if my memory is correct. They could very well not have enough amplitude because of averaging but to get the euro solution, the northern stream system needs to almost split and then have the weak southern stream shortwave phase with the digging western end of the initial vortex that split. If that's not a thread the needle deal, I'm not sure what is.

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As we would expect from you Wes. However regarding this current system the Ensembles were always east of the Operational so i wouldn't be concerned about anything 7-8 days out but that's just me.

Actually, with this coming system, there was one model run where the euro ensembles had the storm but the operational euro didn't essentially that's now flipped.

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Agree with Wes. Storm is not happening. Euro is a complete outlier and the Gfs will probably be correct

Ji, I never said it wasn't happening, I have no idea whether it will happen or not. I think it's a long shot because the timing of the evolution and movement of the two streams has to be almost perfect to get a storm. That can happen sometimes.

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I guess but they supported the euro most of the time during the last storm in this time range if my memory is correct. They could very well not have enough amplitude because of averaging but to get the euro solution, the northern stream system needs to almost split and then have the weak southern stream shortwave phase with the digging western end of the initial vortex that split. If that's not a thread the needle deal, I'm not sure what is.

Couldn't one argue it is less of a thread the needle deal because the upper level setup overall is in decent shape, with the blocking, 50/50 low, etc? Some other factors may need to come into play, but at least the foundation is there, or at least better than it has been up until now.

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Guest someguy

Agree with Wes. Storm is not happening. Euro is a complete outlier and the Gfs will probably be correct

hows that GFS model snow you were honking about 4 and 5 days ago working out for you so far JI?

wadda got so far? 1" or is it 3"?

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And Dave said that would be the case...we need to give it time....obviously

Ive fallen for this line before...EURO shows storm..GFS dosent and in the end..the GFS and all the other models obliterate the Euro. If the EURO had other support, i might have some hope but this is discouraging to say the least. The euro members dont even agree with their operational

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