12z Euro 12/12/10

[bluewave]

Wow..impresive run.

[Guest someguy]

Blizzard for NYC and LI.

eastern long island would go over verbatim for 12Z euro

now that this threat is sort of becoming serious concern

EXPECT MORE RUN OF THE GFS TO HAVE SOMETHING KIND OF HiNTED AT but it will be way east or supressed or shread out until say dec 15 runs or so

keep in mind THIS current storm... and how day 8 day7 day 6 day 5 and day 4 the opertional GFS and GFDS ensemble mean was waaaaaaaaaaay east

[Allsnow]

anyone have precip amounts? MECS so I assume 1.-1.5?

Yeah it def over a inch of liquid

[Guest someguy]

This is not fantasy time period!! Hopefully the GFS will show something at 0z so we can all get amped up and follow along run to run again.

NO NO NO NO

it wont

[Guest someguy]

hr 180 976 over boston.......to correct my hr 162 its just east of hatteras...sorry trying to do this as qucik as i can

looking at the 6 hr maps of the 12z euor the Low tracks right up 73 -72 Long line

[weathervswife]

NO NO NO NO

it wont

Like you said in the earlier post....just "something" to be tracked and mocked.

[Analog96]

NO NO NO NO

it wont

It might for a run or two, and then lose it again!

[Allsnow]

looking at the 6 hr maps of the 12z euor the Low tracks right up 73 -72 Long line

Thanks for the correction

[Alpha5]

Well thats a way to stir the pot

I love the west based NAO and 50/50 low, great position for this storm, and most importantly the 50/50 is further west this run

But what are the chances the euro sticks to this solution....

[bluehens]

12/19 is the new 12/5

[Guest someguy]

Well thats a way to stir the pot

I love the west based NAO and 50/50 low, great position for this storm, and most importantly the 50/50 is further west this run

But what are the chances the euro sticks to this solution....

its the wrong question

this is NOT 1 solution

dont forget what the 0z run of the EURO ENSEMBLE .....which was foooking fantastic with the current Midwest Low.... showed a MAJOR east coast Low as well

and that this is the 4th run now the euro has showed this

[Alpha5]

anyone have precip amounts? MECS so I assume 1.-1.5?

NYC would be about 15-20 inches verbatim QPF amounts are about 1.5-1.75

[Analog96]

NYC would be about 15-20 inches verbatim QPF amounts are about 1.5-1.75

Maybe more than 15-20, depending on ratios, then. Standard ratios are 12:1 or so, but that's crazy talk this far out.

[Guest someguy]

dont look now but the day 9 euro is hinting at the same sort of thing

huge 500 Low going negative as a s/w rounds the base of the trough over the Middle Atlantic

[CoastalWx]

dont look now but the day 9 euro is hinting at the same sort of thing

huge 500 Low going negative as a s/w rounds the base of the trough over the Middle Atlantic

Blocking FTW. Very impressive!

[Thunder Road]

dont look now but the day 9 euro is hinting at the same sort of thing

huge 500 Low going negative as a s/w rounds the base of the trough over the Middle Atlantic

do u mean the ENS mean? or another model? I thought this whole thread was about the op EURO...

unless u mean there's ANOTHER threat right after the d7 threat?

[Analog96]

do u mean the ENS mean? or another model? I thought this whole thread was about the op EURO...

unless u mean there's ANOTHER threat right after the d7 threat?

Dec 1966 if that's true.

[Billabong]

Thankyou......but if you read my first post i said i will disscuss it, as there was intrest shown for it last night in the se states. Its a good hit of frozen preciep for northern NC and southern VA

I'm still interested. Do you have precip amounts for these areas? Thanks.

[Alpha5]

unless u mean there's ANOTHER threat right after the d7 threat?

There is, Euro has another coastal but its OTS

[Guest someguy]

GONNA BE A GREAT EDITION OF

THIS WEEK IN WEATHER

[mitchnick]

do u mean the ENS mean? or another model? I thought this whole thread was about the op EURO...

unless u mean there's ANOTHER threat right after the d7 threat?

yes

[HM]

We need some analogs where a trough was along the West Coast, huge block was retrograding across Canada and a trough was amplifying underneath across the East.

[Guest someguy]

There is, Euro has another coastal but its OTS

3 days ago so was this one

[rduwx]

Thanks Allsnow and DT for the play by play. It's nice to have this on the main forum again!

[mitchnick]

We need some analogs where a trough was along the West Coast, huge block was retrograding across Canada and a trough was amplifying underneath across the East.

how about we make our own?

12/19/10

[Guest someguy]

We need some analogs where a trough was along the West Coast, huge block was retrograding across Canada and a trough was amplifying underneath across the East.

JAN 1966 either the jan 25-27 or JAN 30-31

in bortth cases but especially the Later the 50/50 low was replaced bya massive SUPRESSED 500 LOW over Montral that was shaped like EGG or oval

in the later case JAN 30-31 1966 the monster 500 Low ELONGATED into 2 parets-- like a LAVA LAMP and thw western Low moved out to MANITOba

where it saw a s/w in the STJ cutting through the Lower Plains

the western 500 Low over MB dropepd se into the s/w over the se USA

massive phase

massive storm

[JMU2004]

GONNA BE A GREAT EDITION OF

THIS WEEK IN WEATHER

any conditions to be issued? Charlie?

[CooL]

Is the GFS south east suppression bias at play? Euro is onto something

[RaleighWx]

Lead system is snow to ice in the Triangle with the 2nd system a heavy snow event. I will take it.

This lines up with the majority of the 00z ECMWF Ensemble members, (As far as evolution, timing, and placement of low)

[Zir0b]

JAN 1966 either the jan 25-27 or JAN 30-31

in bortth cases but especially the Later the 50/50 low was replaced bya massive SUPRESSED 500 LOW over Montral that was shaped like EGG or oval

in the later case JAN 30-31 1966 the monster 500 Low ELONGATED into 2 parets-- like a LAVA LAMP and thw western Low moved out to MANITOba

where it saw a s/w in the STJ cutting through the Lower Plains

the western 500 Low over MB dropepd se into the s/w over the se USA

massive phase

massive storm

what about March 01?

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2001/us0304.php