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12z Euro 12/12/10


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JAN 1966 either the jan 25-27 or JAN 30-31

in bortth cases but especially the Later the 50/50 low was replaced bya massive SUPRESSED 500 LOW over Montral that was shaped like EGG or oval

in the later case JAN 30-31 1966 the monster 500 Low ELONGATED into 2 parets-- like a LAVA LAMP and thw western Low moved out to MANITOba

where it saw a s/w in the STJ cutting through the Lower Plains

the western 500 Low over MB dropepd se into the s/w over the se USA

massive phase

massive storm

Meh... I see what you mean about the Jan 30-31 event but definitely not the first one. But both of them don't really resemble the 12z ECMWF solution.

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Hello all. First post, but have been enjoying these board for years now. I appreciate all the great meterological discussion and often site acquired information while teaching, as I am a HS science teacher. This 12z Euro sure gets my attention. I live along the S. Jersey coast and enjoy any winter weather threat. Thank you all for your insights.

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Guest someguy

Meh... I see what you mean about the Jan 30-31 event but definitely not the first one. But both of them don't really resemble the 12z ECMWF solution.

this is why I posted the maps from jan 30 1966

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So obviously it's foolish to talk about exact amounts at this range and it's much more prudent to look at the signal shown but what is the model spitting out in terms of liquid equivalent?

More East of 95 than West....general .25 - .75 for the DC area...up North gets clocked

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Guest someguy

YES march 1 as well.... and that event was Hyped b/c of its similarity with JAN M 30-31 1966

however Mach 2001 failed b/c the cold air was MARGINAL all around the NE

so with the No ARCTIC air in place the Low formed too close to the coast ....

Jan 29 1966 850 temps over NYC -21c ... and even in NYC it did go over to rain for a while

28 FEB 2001 the 850 temps over -5c ti never snowed

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Seems to me that the best thing is that this storm is showing up on several models now....qpf and exact track should not be part of the main conversation at this point just the fact that we are getting some consistency with the storm showing up is the bigger deal

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Guest someguy

Can this storm come further west? Or is the greater risk that the storm goes further out to sea?

always that risk with coastal

the western side of the elongated 500 low IS -- the piece that is over manitoba -- is in MY opinion--- going to dive se at some point and it IS going to spin up a coastal

The 12z eur-- and most of the euro and euro ensmble means -- is doing is that it SEES a strong piece of short wave energy in the STJ....

so the western side of the elongated over the MN and northern Great lakes and the s/w in the STJ phase

add vorticity... baked throughly... serve cold

Keep in mind the GFS as we all know.... at times does not accept that there actually something called the STJ on the planet earth

so SINCE the GFS does see any STJ energy the model has NOTHING to phase

ergo and Low is waaaaaaaay out to sea

got it?

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this is why I posted the maps from jan 30 1966

Yes, that is a nice match. I am just worried that the wavelengths are a little too far to the east this go-around. Then again, that may be a good thing with analogs like 1966.

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