2011 Winter Banter Thread

[Snowstorms]

09-10 wasn't too bad

For you it was great but further north in SONT it sucked. Consistent suppressed storms with that blocking centered across Quebec/Labrador.

I got like 25" that Winter, something like that while my normal is double that.

Lets see wat happens.

[North Balti Zen]

Wes just cancelled winter. After don Sutherland cancelled winter...Wes said he wished he had made a forecast similar to Don

Welcome to 01-02 folks except that winter had one

Minor storm

It's over

I don't see a recent Wes post in the AO thread. Where has he posted updated thoughts? CWG article?

[Wonderdog]

Personnaly, I believe it is somewhat premature to cancel a winter that doesn't start for over three weeks.

[Deck Pic]

euro weeklies apparently

[Ian]

I'm a big fan of the lack of weenie threads.

Winter cancel forever!

[Ian]

Personnaly, I believe it is somewhat premature to cancel a winter that doesn't start for over three weeks.

Or 2 days. Astro winter is lose.. Especially here.

[Fozz]

I'm just hoping that we get something meaningful (warning criteria snow) in early to mid January (that has really been lacking in the past 10 years or so). A snowless December isn't a big deal to me.

[Ji]

I want something to track even of it busts...sometimes the storm on paper is better than the actual storm. Last year sucked for but it was mostly exciting because there was always hope on the horizon

This year is a complete utter disaster and forget December

[usedtobe]

Don said NYC would share in the misery of phl and dc. Sounds like cancel to me. Not once do we ever cancel summer...only winter

I said I hoped that we could still pop a negative nao for a month so it was not a complete capitulation. I do think Dec is toast but no forecasts in the longer range are that good.

[mitchnick]

HM was talking about the recent uptick with the sun that is helping to destroy the ozone, thereby cooling stratospheric temps and raising NAO

here's a graph that shows the activity

it has been quite the anomalous spike if you compare it to prior activity on the graphs (blue line on top graph of Cycle 23-24)

it does look like that we have peaked so hopefully we've got some hope, but how long the lag between the drop and warming of strat temps is the question now

http://www.solen.inf...r/solcycle.html

[North Balti Zen]

My BGE bill has been awfully friendly so far this late fall with the extended warm weather. I don't hate that.

[Inudaw]

As a winter threat tracker..... I've been awfully bored this month. Cut off low is nice and all. Weather feels great and good on the energy bills. Interesting weather (of the colder variety) is sorely lacking.

[J.Mike]

So, winter cancel for Dec - I can deal with that.

But I don't buy winter cancel for the entire season.

[Bob Chill]

I usually try to find something to watch in the models and indicies but man, this is one boring period we're in. NAO and AO forecasts are absolutely atrocious. +PNA not gonna be around long either (not that the current +pna is doing anything).

If Dec ends up having a +NAO and AO monthly reading then it will be the first time since pre 1950 that both indices average in positive territory for the Sept - December timeframe. Individually the indices have stayed positive during the Sept - Dec timeframe a few times:

NAO: 56, 59, 99, 07

AO: 71, 75

99 is probably the closest statistical match I can find for matching both indicies together. The AO was just slightly negative in Oct.

1956 is the closest with the NAO. Quite similar in fact.

I did find an interesting connection between all these years. They are all Nina winters with the exception of 59. However, 59 did feature negative enso temps just not strong enough to classify it as a Nina.

Even deeper into the connection showed that 56, 71, 75, & 99 were all second or third year Ninas (75 was a 3rd year).

I would post the analog composite maps but I'm not going to. Trust me. You don't want to see them.

With the exception of 1975, December was warm to very warm in every other year.

I'm not sounding any alarms. Just posting what I found. But if December does come in warm I think the odds might be stacked against us a bit this year.

[forkyfork]

Sounds like a stretch

there is no way he had a white thanksgiving

[mitchnick]

I usually try to find something to watch in the models and indicies but man, this is one boring period we're in. NAO and AO forecasts are absolutely atrocious. +PNA not gonna be around long either (not that the current +pna is doing anything).

If Dec ends up having a +NAO and AO monthly reading then it will be the first time since pre 1950 that both indices average in positive territory for the Sept - December timeframe. Individually the indices have stayed positive during the Sept - Dec timeframe a few times:

NAO: 56, 59, 99, 07

AO: 71, 75

99 is probably the closest statistical match I can find for matching both indicies together. The AO was just slightly negative in Oct.

1956 is the closest with the NAO. Quite similar in fact.

I did find an interesting connection between all these years. They are all Nina winters with the exception of 59. However, 59 did feature negative enso temps just not strong enough to classify it as a Nina.

Even deeper into the connection showed that 56, 71, 75, & 99 were all second or third year Ninas (75 was a 3rd year).

I would post the analog composite maps but I'm not going to. Trust me. You don't want to see them.

With the exception of 1975, December was warm to very warm in every other year.

I'm not sounding any alarms. Just posting what I found. But if December does come in warm I think the odds might be stacked against us a bit this year.

in the NAO group, the only real stinker at BWI was 07/08 winter, 56/57 had 15.4" (an inch more than last year) and 59/60 and 99/00 had above normal snows

in the AO pair, 71/72 had 14" and 75/76 was the stinker at 11.5"

sooooo, if we can stay away from an 07/08 repeat, we should see some snow

I note as well that almost every one of the those years, except 07/08 and 75/76, had at least one month with double digit snows (usually JAN, but one with FEB) and all had terrible DECs; 3/76 came close to double digits with almost 8" from an underforecasted early March snow that maybe Wes recalls

I'm on the HM train, JAN will be our month/possibly into early FEB and fwiw, CFS forecasts over the month of NOV have been turning DEC warmer than normal and JAN and FEB cooler than earlier forecasts (not saying colder than normal, just close to normal range for JAN and not as much above normal as in its early NOV forecasts)

[Yeoman]

Personnaly, I believe it is somewhat premature to cancel a winter that doesn't start for over three weeks.

Real winter starts Thursday, weenie winter starts in 3 weeks.

[mitchnick]

Real winter starts Thursday, weenie winter starts in 3 weeks.

but only if there isn't snow in the forecast before then

[WxUSAF]

Astronomical winter is for n00bs.

[Bob Chill]

in the NAO group, the only real stinker at BWI was 07/08 winter, 56/57 had 15.4" (an inch more than last year) and 59/60 and 99/00 had above normal snows

in the AO pair, 71/72 had 14" and 75/76 was the stinker at 11.5"

sooooo, if we can stay away from an 07/08 repeat, we should see some snow

I note as well that almost every one of the those years, except 07/08 and 75/76, had at least one month with double digit snows (usually JAN, but one with FEB) and all had terrible DECs; 3/76 came close to double digits with almost 8" from an underforecasted early March snow that maybe Wes recalls

I'm on the HM train, JAN will be our month/possibly into early FEB and fwiw, CFS forecasts over the month of NOV have been turning DEC warmer than normal and JAN and FEB cooler than earlier forecasts (not saying colder than normal, just close to normal range for JAN and not as much above normal as in its early NOV forecasts)

Thanks for pulling out the snowfall data. I only looked at temps and didn't dig any further. I'm still confident in near climo snows around the area. I'm just less confident in temps and extended favorable winter patterns.

After digging through the #'s it was pretty interesting to see every year have a warm Dec except for one and even that one wasn't really cold. IF this Dec end up warm then the statiscal match becomes even better. Something I'll have to take note of and write down because my brain will forget it the next time we run into a similar pattern in the future.

Cold Dec forcasts are in jeopardy right now. Having the best shot in the heart of the season is cool in my book too. Jan is a great month to dodge marginal temps.

[ORH_wxman]

there is no way he had a white thanksgiving

No, he did. I was up in Princeton, MA about 12 mi north of ORH at relatives and they had snow on the ground for T-day. But its all gone now for sure.

[mitchnick]

No, he did. I was up in Princeton, MA about 12 mi north of ORH at relatives and they had snow on the ground for T-day. But its all gone now for sure.

now that wasn't fair to you

[Ellinwood]

THIS WINTER IS GOING TO BE THE BEST WINTER EVER!

Oh wait, I was supposed to complain, wasn't I?

December begins tomorrow.

[Bob Chill]

Should I be interested in the latest euro @ 168+?

I use raleigh's site so it's kinda tough sometimes to indentify the finer details. Does 500mb energy close off and track across the va/nc border and pop a coastal? 24 hour panels are hard to figure out what's in between.

850 temps and winds look good too.

I didn't see too much talk about this so i guess my weenie eyes are failing me.

[mappy]

Should I be interested in the latest euro @ 168+?

I use raleigh's site so it's kinda tough sometimes to indentify the finer details. Does 500mb energy close off and track across the va/nc border and pop a coastal? 24 hour panels are hard to figure out what's in between.

850 temps and winds look good too.

I didn't see too much talk about this so i guess my weenie eyes are failing me.

Ian and I both just mentioned it in the new December thread - also wunderground has Euro maps out to hr 180 where you can zoom in and get a better view of what it is showing for us.

In this case, it was rain as it passed the area, cold comes in once the moisture is already out of the area.

[Bob Chill]

Ian and I both just mentioned it in the new December thread - also wunderground has Euro maps out to hr 180 where you can zoom in and get a better view of what it is showing for us.

In this case, it was rain as it passed the area, cold comes in once the moisture is already out of the area.

Thank you for saving me some time. Didn't check the Dec thread. It is something to track though. Anytime 500 energy tracks in that general area it is something to keep an eye on. Cold rain isn't all that bad is it?

[mappy]

Thank you for saving me some time. Didn't check the Dec thread. It is something to track though. Anytime 500 energy tracks in that general area it is something to keep an eye on. Cold rain isn't all that bad is it?

Temps were in the 40s, so it wasn't a horrible cold rain. Better than 35 and rain.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Temps were in the 40s, so it wasn't a horrible cold rain. Better than 35 and rain.

The EC maps for that time have snow along the I 81 corridor. Not that that actually means anything.

[mappy]

The EC maps for that time have snow along the I 81 corridor. Not that that actually means anything.

Yeah, at hr180... I saw that. But prior to that there is moisture that moves to our east before the temps fall

[phils1]

GFS and Euro both indicating a “step-down” process to colder weather will take place over the next couple of weeks as the NAO moves toward neutral or negative territory. Detailed video discussion at http://spam.com/category/phl/on the two models and how they both are indicating similar changes to the overall pattern.