downeastnc Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 its becoming obvious the models are just now catching on to all that rich moisture in the Gulf that is about to catapult right into Georgia and the CArolinas, then up the East coast and get pulled west under the cut off. We don't exactly see this often. I'd almost bet a million bucks the rain is going to overperform on this for a huge chunk of Ga and Carolinas..hard to say exactly who yet, but with that kind of juicy moisture , and the strong, and very deep trough and dynamics (plus check out the incredible thickness packing at just 24 hours out!), then something big is probably going to happen. I haven't been this excited over a storm in ages. Esp. excited for the folks in GA and central SC and NC that really need the rain. The coast could end up with 4" if that second and third round develops like the NAM is showing...and I'm pretty sure they don't want that much rain. You would be correct sir.....mosquitos are terrible and there are tons of fields with cotten in them still because the farmers cant get in them without getting bogged down.....on our hunting club land the farmer sprayed the cotten to kill the leaves so he could harvest, then we got all that rain and he couldnt get it up. Then it warmed up and the leaves grew back so he sprayed em again this weekend. However we get that much rain and he prolly wont be able to get em up this time either. I also am not to thrilled with the the tornado potential ( well the timing of it anyways) and the tornados could be a bit stronger than what we normally see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 then we got all that rain and he couldnt get it up. OK this is getting scary. Rain, rain go away!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 OK this is getting scary. Rain, rain go away!!! LOL we can always count on you to find the little gems in our post..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 it does look like on all the models a quick and sharp cutoff very near the Al/GA border, and especially south of 20 in that zone. Because first the moisture will pull north tomorrow afternoon, and that first part could miss the southern part of Ala, and by the time the next shortwave digs in all the moisture could be used up, but scattered showers could redevelop about anytime. More to the north though over n. Ala and GA. I think. A squall line might develop , its doubtful, but the trough overall is hanging so far back to the west that it could tap the Gulf again sometime early Wed, which would be a surprise bonus rain in Ala and GA. I will admit, I haven't tracked this system until yesterday (was on vacation and away from a computer for a few days...). That said, I have to agree with you Robert. This storm is SUPER impressive! Only thing I'm concerned about, locally, is that dry slot! I chatted with the other station's weekend MET and he saw the same thing... We both agreed that it could certainly happen, but the dynamics are just too ridiculous to not include shower/thunderstorm activity, especially for our eastern viewers. I have a feeling the moisture will be tugged a little further east, keeping much of east central Alabama dry until the front moves through tomorrow night/Wednesday morning. Like you have said a few times. It's certainly interesting seeing this thing set-up, even if I have only tracked it the past 24 hours... haha! Here's to a LOT of people picking up some much needed rain! I just don't think that will be the case here... At least I hope so! I'm the only meteorologist on staff until Wednesday morning.... haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 System in the gulf has became more saturated and more organized in the past couple WV and IR frames. I do have doubts on the amount of moisture that makes its way up the coast. Frank Strait alluded to this in his blog entry today too. Dry air appears to be wrapping around the system on the water vapor loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 The shaft is great with this event, padwan... .25" is my Widrecast for Orange county, nc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 The shaft is great with this event, padwan... .25" is my Widrecast for Orange county, nc.... wow, a major total bust could be in the making. All models have moved way east now, barely even getting the coast. The two systems may not merge. 6z GFS and NAM are now that way. Only ECMWF brings the system far enough west, but its cut down amounts too. Looking at the Gulf and water vapor, its hard to see how in less than 24 hours out, the moisture gets pulled inland this far. This would be extremely embarrassing, but it could happen. At this point, the strong digging shortwave coming into lower Miss. Valley should still generate some rain, but nothing like what the models and I thought could happen...could be a huge gap of almost nothing in GA and the central and west Carolinas especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 wow, a major total bust could be in the making. All models have moved way east now, barely even getting the coast. The two systems may not merge. 6z GFS and NAM are now that way. Only ECMWF brings the system far enough west, but its cut down amounts too. Looking at the Gulf and water vapor, its hard to see how in less than 24 hours out, the moisture gets pulled inland this far. This would be extremely embarrassing, but it could happen. At this point, the strong digging shortwave coming into lower Miss. Valley should still generate some rain, but nothing like what the models and I thought could happen...could be a huge gap of almost nothing in GA and the central and west Carolinas especially. I noticed that too but was hoping it was just a hiccup. Oh well, let's get these busts out of the way now instead of Dec/Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Yes please I noticed that too but was hoping it was just a hiccup. Oh well, let's get these busts out of the way now instead of Dec/Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Patience! It will come! Like Robert was saying, it's a very dynamic system. Give it time to do it's thing. At least that's what I'm clinging on to... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 The shaft is great with this event, padwan... .25" is my Widrecast for Orange county, nc.... LOL!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 well I guess it will come down to radars. There's some decent returns coming into Florida panhandle now, not really from the convection in the lower Gulf though, just from divergence and strong dynamics coming into lower Miss. valley, and beginning to cause lift, also probably part of the low level circulation in the gulf getting sheared now, so I think atleast some moisture will begin to develop. But the NAM really shows a razor sharp line beginning to take shape later today from central east GA and cuts that line northeast to central and esp. eastern Carolinas tonight, bypassing most of the ATL and AHN region up to GSP and CLT and points west. But those areas would get their rain overnight and early Wed. from the incoming system to the west. If the gulf system had been positioned a little more to the north and west though, this would have been a huge event...probably not going to be now though...but any rain helps I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainMarvel Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 45 degrees yesterday morning at 8 a.m. at Bald Mountain Golf Club on the north end of Lake Lure. Warmed up to 77 by the time we finished at 12:30. Colors were wonderful, but still behind peaking. A little rain would be quite welcome tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 well I guess it will come down to radars. There's some decent returns coming into Florida panhandle now, not really from the convection in the lower Gulf though, just from divergence and strong dynamics coming into lower Miss. valley, and beginning to cause lift, also probably part of the low level circulation in the gulf getting sheared now, so I think atleast some moisture will begin to develop. But the NAM really shows a razor sharp line beginning to take shape later today from central east GA and cuts that line northeast to central and esp. eastern Carolinas tonight, bypassing most of the ATL and AHN region up to GSP and CLT and points west. But those areas would get their rain overnight and early Wed. from the incoming system to the west. If the gulf system had been positioned a little more to the north and west though, this would have been a huge event...probably not going to be now though...but any rain helps I guess. Yeah, the NAM really shafted central NC, eastern SC, and most of northern GA (like normal). However, the western piedmont/foothills of NC still stands to get some rainfall. I would suppose this is due to the moisture from the south banking up against the foothills and mountains of the southern Apps and creating lift. The coastal counties of all three states appear to get copious amounts of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 The next 6 hours or so will be telling. The trough is beginning to tilt negative now which will start to interact with the gulf storm. Like Robert mentioned there is already precip coming onshore on the Floriday Panhandle so lets see if that area can start to explode inland. Should be interesting to watch either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Underlined pretty good info from last night Rah disco. Goes hand in hand with what others have previously stated about a precip max. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT AIR MASS WILL BECOME VERY MOIST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY THANKS TO A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING NNE ALONG THE SE U.S.S. COAST AND THE APPROACH OF A MATURE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE TN VALLEY. CENTRAL NC EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 120+ KT UPPER JET WITH APPRECIABLE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYNOPTIC LIFT INTERACTING WITH THE MOIST AIR ALONE IN ITSELF SHOULD PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. WHERE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED WILL DETERMINE WHERE HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR. IN THIS REGARD MODELS OFFER VARYING SCENARIOS. USING A CONCEPTUAL MODEL THAT RELATES TO A TROPICAL LOW TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRA TROPICAL LOW...THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL LIKELY DEMONSTRATE SUBTROPICAL/HYBRID LOW CHARACTERISTICS TONIGHT. BASED ON RESEARCH FROM THE C*STAR PROGRAM...THE APPROACH OF THE MID LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE WEST IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM SHOULD RESULT IN A BAND OF HEAVIER THAN NORMAL PRECIP TO OCCUR W-NW OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIP OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF THE TRACK. THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF STILL FAVOR A SURFACE LOW TRACK THAT HUGS THE NC COAST...THUS EXPECT BULK OF HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR EAST OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FOR A SECONDARY AREA OF HEAVY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TOUGH AND UPPER LEVEL JET. IN BETWEEN THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE PRECIP MINIMUM WHICH MAY BE ACROSS OUR COASTAL PLAIN/FAR EASTERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES. ALL IN ALL WILL CONTINUE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT BUT TRY TO DEPICT HEAVIEST PRECIP AMOUNTS THAT FAVOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF (ISENTROPIC LIFT) THEN SHIFT EMPHASIS TO THE NW HALF DURING THE OVERNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 12Z NAM moves the main body of precip further west from the coast in NC, yet it decreases the amount of enhanced precip in the lee of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 The shaft is great with this event, padwan... .25" is my Widrecast for Orange county, nc.... You are too generous. A tenth or less. I've seen this game played out before. We'll get a couple showers during the middle, maybe even a briefly moderate one to make us think that we'll actually get decent rain, and then otherwise just foggy and misty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 You are too generous. A tenth or less. I've seen this game played out before. We'll get a couple showers during the middle, maybe even a briefly moderate one to make us think that we'll actually get decent rain, and then otherwise just foggy and misty. Like the last 2 events... hence my Widrecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 12Z NAM has some nice omega values for RDU eastward at 700 hPa associated with WAA/weak PVA between 12-24 hours. It's a shame the tropical low isn't going to come further west or we would have likely seen something a lot more explosive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Found out this morning that the 12z NAM is the start of the new version of NAM. Supposedly it is seeing this event much better than its predecessor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 And it's really wrapping it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheronNC Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Gotta love NC. Pressure will drop all the way down to 995 mb or so with <0.10" of rain and winds never making it above 15 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 The fog finally lifted here and the temps are responding...75/66 currently while I wait patiently for my showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Gotta love NC. Pressure will drop all the way down to 995 mb or so with <0.10" of rain and winds never making it above 15 mph. you'll get some heavy bands of drizzle..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Found out this morning that the 12z NAM is the start of the new version of NAM. Supposedly it is seeing this event much better than its predecessor. If thats the case I'll come back in 72 hours to see how well it verifies. It's mythical wheelhouse due to Hi-Res is supose to be under 48 inside 24 if I remeber correctly. So this will be a good test to see how well it does 72 hours out. Thanks for pointing this out. For reference heres the 12znam 10/18/11 output: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 My GRL3 Ft. Rucker radar shows most of the rain that's currently falling. See link below. I think I have most of the area covered right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Found out this morning that the 12z NAM is the start of the new version of NAM. That is correct. Here is some information about the changes that were made for those who are interested. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification/tin11-16nam_changes_aac.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Look at this awesome trough in about 10 days... I's way out there but with all the healthy troughs so far this fall it really would fit the current pattern.... flurries in the south and a first good snowfall for the upstate of NY and New England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 That is correct. Here is some information about the changes that were made for those who are interested. http://www.nws.noaa....changes_aac.htm The NAM could use an update or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.