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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part IV


Typhoon Tip

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Me neither. But the surge threat is tremendous because of this.

I share your concerns. People are comparing this to Bob which (1) wasn't nearly as large in size (2) tracked far enough east to prevent major surge west of Buzzards Bay and (3) didn't occur at astronomical tide. These predictions of 4-8 foot surges seem much too low for the Bays. Track works out and Narragansett Bay is looking at 10' surge.

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I don't know if the situation is exactly analogous...but given the high Surge IKE...I'm comparing what would have happened in Galveston Bay if Ike had made landfall just left of where it actually made landfall. Ike's and Irene's surge potential at the moment are about the same. Given this, there might be a possibility of a Cat 3 type storm surge into Narragansett Bay. Galveston Bay and Narragansett Bay's storm surge potential are about equal.

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I don't know if the situation is exactly analogous...but given the high Surge IKE...I'm comparing what would have happened in Galveston Bay if Ike had made landfall just left of where it actually made landfall. Ike's and Irene's surge potential at the moment are about the same. Given this, there might be a possibility of a Cat 3 type storm surge into Narragansett Bay. Galveston Bay and Narragansett Bay's storm surge potential are about equal.

Good post. As long as landfall stays to the west and high tide coincides this'll be the worst test of the hurricane barrier since it was constructed. we should be seeing widespread evacuations today.

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I was under the impression high tides were in the 8AM, 8PM range. Looking at models, it appears the eye will make landfall sometime between those two.

I'm grateful for this as stormsurge coudl very well likely be the biggest $ losses and I really hate to see that kind of damage to an area. Wind damage, on the otherhand is kinda cool. ;)

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Shocked to see IRene weaken further, hopefully that trend continues today, and Irene is nothing more than a weak tropical storm by the time it reaches our are, either way prepared for the worst, and hoping for the best. Track shifting east and disorganized storm, two big positives to wake up to this morning!

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I never understood why people get all excited for what could be impending doom and disaster for them. "Yay, the roof's going to blow off my house!!"

No different than bungee jumping or riding a rollercoaster, except there's no choice in the matter but to get excited and anxious. Are you apathetic and ho-hum about a hurricane landfall? Why come here?

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Pete Bouchard's latest blog post suggests he is going conservative wind the wind potential in Mass. 40-50 mph gusts inland, 50-60 mph gusts on the coast.

This seems reasonable. It could end up being primarily a nasty coastal flooding event - with nor'easter-type impacts inland.

Although as a forecaster I wouldn't want to downplay anything this early in the game.

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