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Hurricane Irene and the mid-Atlantic (Pre-game show)


Ian

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It's almost like the anti-shadow down near wes. btw, thx for your response wes.. i need more for my forecast tho. :P

I'm not concerned about the indentation. It looks to me like I'm right on the 5 inch line if you straighten out the wiggle a little. As to your forecast, I'd go with the Euro track and the NAM rainfall since it seems to fit the euro track and then go towards the NWS official wind forecast. It's going to be windy and rainy and some people like me will lose our power.

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I seriously don't understand: Weather Channel just showed really heavy rain per the GFS and Euro model for DC. Yet only 2-3 forecast from the likes of Capital Weather, etc? Am I missing something, here?

2-3 is a well rounded forecast. Are you honestly comparing TWC with CWG...lol

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I'm not concerned about the indentation. It looks to me like I'm right on the 5 inch line if you straighten out the wiggle a little. As to your forecast, I'd go with the Euro track and the NAM rainfall since it seems to fit the euro track and then go towards the NWS official wind forecast. It's going to be windy and rainy and some people like me will lose our power.

I love it when you get excited and turn weenie on us. This sounds like Ji in the winter trying to take GFS temps, NAM moisture, and GGEM duration and make a HECS out of it. ;)

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It is a smoothed mean product. You have been on these boards a long time, you know this. You've seen the GFS ensemble mean before, right?

Well, I sort of thought they might throw out the most outlier and keep the more centered ones that is why it looked lousy to me I guess.

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What is your best guess as to what the surge totals are going to be in the Baltimore area? I'm think not as bad, or widespread flooding as with Isabel?

I think with a predominantly Ne wind veering to N then NW that the surge in Baltimore alone will be minimal and nothing close to Isabel.

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if we get a big feeder band through it's not a non threat but it might be borderline for a watch etc

Something earlier in the storm like the ARW/NMW show before the steady stuff hits? I always thought the right front quadrant was where most of the tornadic risk resides in a system, especially if it is undergoing transition.

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If LWX is right on the wind forecast (30-40mph with 60mph gusts), there are bound to be power outages, very "Isabel-esque" wind-cast by LWX.

I'm guessing the top gust I will see is 48mph but I could see a rogue gust popping up somewhere.

I'm fairly confident that you will see a 800mph gust at some point during the event :P

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