Bob Chill Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 It's pretty cool when the heavier bands move in and the wind gusts the hardest during the hardest rain. Definitely one of the more entertaining parts of tropical systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 It's almost like the anti-shadow down near wes. btw, thx for your response wes.. i need more for my forecast tho. I'm not concerned about the indentation. It looks to me like I'm right on the 5 inch line if you straighten out the wiggle a little. As to your forecast, I'd go with the Euro track and the NAM rainfall since it seems to fit the euro track and then go towards the NWS official wind forecast. It's going to be windy and rainy and some people like me will lose our power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 It's pretty cool when the heavier bands move in and the wind gusts the hardest during the hardest rain. Definitely one of the more entertaining parts of tropical systems. Yeah, I agree. It is also when most of the trees topple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I seriously don't understand: Weather Channel just showed really heavy rain per the GFS and Euro model for DC. Yet only 2-3 forecast from the likes of Capital Weather, etc? Am I missing something, here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Can we ban the newbies until after the storm? Instead of criticizing, you might rather want to educate. Think about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I seriously don't understand: Weather Channel just showed really heavy rain per the GFS and Euro model for DC. Yet only 2-3 forecast from the likes of Capital Weather, etc? Am I missing something, here? 2-3 is a well rounded forecast. Are you honestly comparing TWC with CWG...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 What is your best guess as to what the surge totals are going to be in the Baltimore area? I'm think not as bad, or widespread flooding as with Isabel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Is this supposed to be a wow factor? Looks like less than half the nam totals even on the coast. It is a smoothed mean product. You have been on these boards a long time, you know this. You've seen the GFS ensemble mean before, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Of course.. NAM in range. NAM is a glorified RUC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Instead of criticizing, you might rather want to educate. Think about it. Here's a great way of educating yourself: Read more and post less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I'm not concerned about the indentation. It looks to me like I'm right on the 5 inch line if you straighten out the wiggle a little. As to your forecast, I'd go with the Euro track and the NAM rainfall since it seems to fit the euro track and then go towards the NWS official wind forecast. It's going to be windy and rainy and some people like me will lose our power. I love it when you get excited and turn weenie on us. This sounds like Ji in the winter trying to take GFS temps, NAM moisture, and GGEM duration and make a HECS out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Number of tor warnings around here tomorrow? It always seems like the tornado threat is downplayed with these systems, but we already have reports of tornado induced damage in NC tonight. The NWS offices down there are in for a long night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Number of tor warnings around here tomorrow? It always seems like the tornado threat is downplayed with these systems, but we already have reports of tornado induced damage in NC tonight. The NWS offices down there are in for a long night. We're on the back quadrant dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 It is a smoothed mean product. You have been on these boards a long time, you know this. You've seen the GFS ensemble mean before, right? Well, I sort of thought they might throw out the most outlier and keep the more centered ones that is why it looked lousy to me I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 What is your best guess as to what the surge totals are going to be in the Baltimore area? I'm think not as bad, or widespread flooding as with Isabel? I think with a predominantly Ne wind veering to N then NW that the surge in Baltimore alone will be minimal and nothing close to Isabel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoCoSnowBo Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Looks like a big jog towards the east? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 repost: 0z NAM MOS 43 sustained at DCA 12z sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 repost: 0z NAM MOS 43 sustained at DCA 12z sunday get your kite ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 We're on the back quadrant dude. if we get a big feeder band through it's not a non threat but it might be borderline for a watch etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Looks like a big jog towards the east? http://www.ssd.noaa....2/flash-wv.html Looks like she's still going to make landfall somewhere between Atlantic Beach and Hatteras. I don't see a significant E movement, but more a NNE movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 repost: 0z NAM MOS 43 sustained at DCA 12z sunday Hmmm 50mph at 8 am sustained... thats not pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 if we get a big feeder band through it's not a non threat but it might be borderline for a watch etc Something earlier in the storm like the ARW/NMW show before the steady stuff hits? I always thought the right front quadrant was where most of the tornadic risk resides in a system, especially if it is undergoing transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 oh hai der 00z RGEM at 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 repost: 0z NAM MOS 43 sustained at DCA 12z sunday WTF! I wonder what gusts would be lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Looks like a big jog towards the east? http://www.ssd.noaa....2/flash-wv.html Looks more like wobbledy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Looks like there's a band slowly moving towards OC from the SE....could get there within the next few hours depending on its exact speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 If LWX is right on the wind forecast (30-40mph with 60mph gusts), there are bound to be power outages, very "Isabel-esque" wind-cast by LWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 If LWX is right on the wind forecast (30-40mph with 60mph gusts), there are bound to be power outages, very "Isabel-esque" wind-cast by LWX. I'm guessing the top gust I will see is 48mph but I could see a rogue gust popping up somewhere. I'm fairly confident that you will see a 800mph gust at some point during the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 If the 00z GFS goes west (we shall see in 10-15 mins) wonder what LWX will do in its new HLS... increase rain and wind? new HLS comes out after midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 If the 00z GFS goes west (we shall see in 10-15 mins) wonder what LWX will do in its new HLS... increase rain and wind? new HLS comes out after midnight GFS will crash so you cannot view it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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